Guessing Thursday - the Scottish element

Just forty-eight hours of campaigning remain for the candidates in Super Thursday’s three elections in Britain. So this is as good a time as any to hazard a guess as to the outcomes.

Or possibly not. There aren’t many experienced pundits prepared to do so because of complications inherent in all three elections. The council elections in England are horribly complicated because parties stand in some areas but not in others. Labour has candidates in only about half the seats on offer. No party is standing across the board.

But the list systems employed for the Scottish and Welsh Assembly elections don’t make prediction easy, either. They were plainly designed to maintain the liberal-left pro-Westminster status quo, and to prevent nationalism (that’s the constitutional variety, of course) from ever placing a hand on the tiller.

In Scotland, 73 of the 129 MSPs are elected to single-member constituencies and 56 are chosen for one of eight regions using proportional representation. The cost of this system to its architect, the late Donald Dewar, was the Genscherisation of Scottish politics. Labour, as the eternal largest party in Scotland, may never be able to govern alone. A permanent place at the governing table was, therefore, the Scottish LibDems for the asking.

When I last ventured into Scottish political punditry, on January 13th I presumed that the SNP would be forced to make common cause with the Scottish Conservatives. At the time Labour and the SNP were pretty much neck and neck in the polls, but headed in opposite directions. So I predicted that the real poll would give the SNP 35% and Labour 30%, and these figures are now reported by the major polling organisations.

But I also predicted that sufficient shy Conservatives would support David Cameron and his Scottish leader, Annabel Goldie, in the voting booth to make an SNP/Con coalition viable. In fact, the opinion polls have not been kind to the Conservatives, and it seems unlikely that they will gain on their 18 MSPs from the last Parliament. Meanwhile Labour is eyeing a “traffic light” coalition with the Scottish LibDems and Greens.

The LibDems, however, are not to be trusted. They will want more from Alex Salmond than the Environment portfolio that would go to the Greens in the Labour’s three-party arrangement, and they will get it.

One thing is certain. Whichever way the LibDem’s eventually go they will try to present the decision as one of high principle. Re-enter an administration with Labour and they are acting on their first duty is to preserve the Union. Go with Salmond and Co and they are acting on their first duty to the Scottish electorate, who made the SNP the largest party in the new Parliament.

So, am I going to predict what evil little thoughts are spinning round and round inside LibDem brains? Surprisingly, yes. It is always possible to seek “assurances” and “guarantees” on a referendum three years in the future. But how, if such are forthcoming and are demonstrably reasonable, can the LibDems reject them and face the electorate again without bringing the entire system into disrepute, and risking grave and lasting damage to themselves?

No, they will follow their ultimate self-interest. It will be Salmond who leads the next administration at Holyrood. And everything else I wrote about on January 13th, including the forthcoming death of the Labour Party (to the lasting benefit of the BNP), will come to pass in the fullness of time.

Posted by Guessedworker on Monday, April 30, 2007 at 08:58 PM in British Politics
Comments (8) | Tell a friend

Comments:

Posted by Fred Scrooby on May 02, 2007, 01:51 PM | #

Their parliament building doesn’t exactly compare favorably with some of the older more traditional European architecture. It’s almost always a grave esthetic mistake to “go modern” in architecture (as it’s almost always a grave mistake to “go modern” in one’s political theories ...).

Posted by Guessedworker on May 04, 2007, 03:42 PM | #

Well, it’s been as tight thusfar as the late Time Populus poll predicted. But at 16.30 today, according to BBC Scotland the SNP finally overtook Labour’s total. With 106 of the 129 Assembly seats declared, they lead 40 to 39. A little daylight should now open up. But whether it will be enough to encourage the LibDems to break bread with the independence junkies is another matter.

Posted by Fred Scrooby on May 04, 2007, 04:22 PM | #

Scottish independence is good for our side. That election news is favorable for us.

Posted by Fred Scrooby on May 04, 2007, 04:26 PM | #

Anything that lifts the yoke of the distant central authorities off the necks of the local entities is good for us.

Posted by Guessedworker on May 04, 2007, 05:03 PM | #

The SNP by ONE seat: 47 to Labour’s 46. Conservatives finished on 17 and LibDems on 16 ... and “others” 3. Now everyone’s looking around for a nag to sell.

It is possible that the 100,000 votes lost to the corrupted postal voting system would have affected the outcome. A majority of Scots may wish to see the election re-run, but that seems highly improbable. Salmond has only said that if he wins power he would order a judicial enquiry. It’s always the loser who demands a re-match.

Posted by Lurker on May 04, 2007, 11:11 PM | #

Trouble is Fred many Scots nats want to lift the yoke of distant Westminster and replace it with - laughably - with the even more remote and unaccountable EU. Welsh and Scots nationalism is often just a localised variant of borderless, globalising, immigrant (except English) importing liberal leftism.

The sort of people who, were they English or American, would be appalled at McDonalds opening in their town but exhibit apparent indifference to Muslim asians forming a majority in the same town - if not actually claiming to welcome it.

Posted by Lurker on May 06, 2007, 01:01 PM | #

Here’s how much use the SNP are (Laban Tall’s site):

http://ukcommentators.blogspot.com/2007/05/first-asian-msp-goes-to-holyrood.html

Posted by Friedrich Braun on May 06, 2007, 01:52 PM | #

Any show of pro-independance should be welcomed IMO.

Scotland should go its own way after 300 years of being held prisoner by the English.