a simple model

Posted by James Bowery on September 08, 2010, 05:41 PM | #

Although I may be accused of being a Cornucopian, it is irresponsible to prepare for the future without taking into account the potential downsides.  The Cornucopian future depends on too many plausible but not necessarily probable conditions.  For example, the world-girdling serpent would slow its gnawing at the roots of the world’s life if the managerial elite would simply forego the stroking of their collective moral vanity.  How likely is that?  An alternative is a substantial uprising by military commanders who understand that there is more to life than acquiring social status via appeal to the emotions of 120IQ coeds with big bazooms.  But given the “liberated” military, how likely is that?  There are any of a number of possible wild-cards that could save our collective skins, but each of them has been available to the managerial elite for decades without any signs they are interested in pursuing them—on the contrary—they seem to fear them more than the collapse of the world’s carrying capacity!

The best hope I can offer is the “optimization” of the world-girdling serpent to a radically smaller ecological footprint within the next decade or two.  This might provide the breathing room that allowed the revival of Northern European man’s individual sovereignty in the New World during the short time of open territory.

Posted by ...We Will Win! on September 09, 2010, 12:23 AM | #

A certain phrase comes to mind, though I can’t quite remember all it…something like “Billions will die…!” - but ah, I seem to have forgotten the rest.

Posted by Ronery Asian Guy on September 09, 2010, 01:01 AM | #

Mr. Renner,

I have read the article you’ve posted and it does make a very good case as far as overcapacity is concerned. But how do you account for the arguments of Mr. Parrot in another post, wherein oil may be replaced by other energy sources such as solar power? The article mentioned 60% dependence on oil and gas. The proportion for that value can drastically change in the coming years ahead.

One of the points of the article is that the die off hinges upon oil supplies (or demand) running out, but what if changes in the structure can be implemented wherein more renewable sources of energy may be used to not necessarily to prevent die off but instead reduce its effects?

Posted by James Bowery on September 09, 2010, 02:02 AM | #

I repeat:  There have been Cornucopian options sitting on the table for decades.  Something unspeakably bad is going on.  It may even be stupidity in high places.

Posted by Matt Parrott on September 09, 2010, 02:25 PM | #

As the cost of traditional fossil fuels very gradually rises, the market will very gradually replace it with a variety of alternative sources of energy and alternative means of utilizing energy. If necessary, we can fall back on locomotives. If necessary, we can place giant turbines in the sea to exploit the virtually limitless supply of power to be harnessed from ocean currents. When necessary, we’ll trade in our SUVs for cars, repopulate the urban centers to cut down on wasteful commutes from the suburbs and beyond, and pass nationalist/localist legislation that reduces the distance goods must travel from manufacturer to consumer.

If necessary, we can modify our gas-powered cars to run on petrol, which the UK and Australia have in plentiful supply.

I’m not a Pollyanna, and I don’t believe the current “world as we know it” is sustainable. I just haven’t been convinced that the availability of energy is going to be the limiting factor.

Posted by Søren Renner on September 09, 2010, 07:31 PM | #

Dear Readers:
    You are the intended targets of Mr. Parrott’s trolling. Do not rise to the bait. He knows as well as you do that petrol and gasoline are the same thing.

Most current or former Commonwealth countries use the term petrol, abbreviated from petroleum spirit. In North America, the substance is called gasoline, a term often shortened in colloquial usage to gas (although petrol is also accepted and used to a lesser extent in Canada). It is not a genuinely gaseous fuel (unlike, for example, liquefied petroleum gas, which is stored under pressure as a liquid, but returned to a gaseous state before combustion). The term petrogasoline is also used.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline

Posted by Fred Scrooby on September 09, 2010, 08:02 PM | #

”If necessary, we can fall back on locomotives.”  (—Matt Parrott)

Steam ones?  I could definitely live with that.  Coal fired or wood fired steam locomotives:  beautiful.  Check these beauties out (turn your sound on):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV0-2xvmguY .

Posted by Lurker on September 09, 2010, 10:07 PM | #

Thinks for the link Fred, Im always watching stuff like this.  One of these days Im going to get started on my model railway too.

Posted by Lurker on September 10, 2010, 12:38 AM | #

I meant to do stuff, now its way past bedtime and Ive been watching railway videos on youtube, this is your fault Fred! Though I somehow ended up with New Order. From one sort of nostalgia to another I suppose.

Posted by Bill on September 10, 2010, 03:43 AM | #

Hey Lurker, hey Fred, you got me looking at my scrap book, titled - For What it’s Worth.

England c1947.  Me and my pals are going over to the railway.  Walking across the fields some two miles distant.

This was taken from a piece I wrote in my scrapbook ‘I Remember Elm Trees’ where I describe in part, a childhood visit to the nearby railway.  Elm trees are no more in England, virtually wiped out by some disease or other many years ago.

“At this particular spot, the engines had to work very hard pulling their load up the gradient, the laboured efforts of the engine would always seem to me to be almost human, ‘I can do it,’ ‘I can do it,’ they would snort in rhythm with their exhaust, their speed would barely be sufficient to maintain momentum, quite often it seemed to me, they would stall to a halt, but they never did.  For some inexplicable reason I would compulsively count the number of trucks as they trundled by, (still do, sad) even now, I can see the guard on his van at the rear of the train, throwing overboard the unwanted remains from his tea urn, in preparation for a fresh brew.

On one of those childhood summer days, when all was warm and quiet, save for the whispering grass, the faint tingle of bells would waft across the shimmering tracks.  There was silent movement in the box as the signalman pulled on a man size lever, not far away, a signal arm would clang and point accusingly up at the cloudless sky, telling us a train was coming down the line.  Sometimes, it would be a passenger train, which would canter down the gradient with its two or three carriages, this was not a line where express trains came thundering down, it was pastoral line, it was country line.”

BTW. Fred Great vid.  Rare to have accompanying sound track, I wonder if it is original or added later.

I’ve always been fond of steam, ahh! that smell.  If only I could bottle it, worth a fortune.

PS No computers in those days for kids to play on 24/7.  The only time we went into our bedrooms was when it was time for bed.  My grandchildren never play out, they stay in their bedrooms on a screen - winter and summer alike.

Posted by Lurker on September 10, 2010, 06:54 AM | #

Bill, where abouts was this (in 1947), I’m trying to picture the kind of locos.

Specifically what Im nostalgic for is the blue diesel period of British Railways, late ‘60s to early ‘80s. But over the years Ive come to extend that other times and other railways. Technically thats not nostalgia I suppose, just being a trainspotter! For me working steam locos have always been preserved or on the narrow gauge lines.

Posted by Matt Nuenke on September 10, 2010, 12:35 PM | #

Malthusians have predicted the end of times by overpopulation for 200 years now, and yet the predictions never come about. However, I believe that as a Darwinian principle, species will tend to overproduce and then will enter a period of decline. For humans, since the great migration, this outcome has been averted through technology. Eventually though we will reach an overpopulation crisis that will push humans into global warfare, rather than cooperation, in my opinion. I for one welcome this crisis, because it may be necessary for Whites to find their moral particularism and advance their genetic interests. I see two possibilities: there will be some level of a bottleneck effect and humans will pass through it and emerge more intelligent on average, and hopefully Whites will survive and lead the eugenic movement to race betterment. If however the third world masses dominate and we enter a dysgenic decline, along with a population decline, I would have no interest preservation of myself or my race. A simple thought experiment imagining oneself being a citizen of an Angola like nation would not make life worth living. Billions will die…we must win!

Posted by John on September 11, 2010, 08:59 AM | #

I entertain the thought at times that like the oil crisis of the ‘70s and AGW, peak oil is nothing but a big scam.
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