Declining marginal returns on investments in complexity: the thermodynamics of Olduvai

Posted by PF on August 26, 2010, 12:30 PM | #

Suppose I were to take your new born infant, and by some magic transport her back through 16,000 years to a cave in what is now Lascaux in south-western France. Let’s swap your baby with a baby born to a Neolithic mother. There is no reason to believe that in time both children would not turn out to be well-adjusted, unremarkable members of their respective communities. Genetically they are the same. What is clearly different is the world in which they would have to make their way.

ah ha. on a genetic level, nothing happened in the last 16000 years. He sounds pretty confident. Other than that, very cool article Soren.

Posted by Leon Haller on August 26, 2010, 12:39 PM | #

OK, I have not read the article, and can’t right now. But what in the world is the second illustration supposed to be about?

Posted by Søren Renner on August 26, 2010, 12:44 PM | #

Jaffee has contributed to hundreds of Mad articles, as either a writer or an artist, and often both. These include his long-running “Snappy Answers to Stupid Questions”, which present multiple putdowns for the same unnecessary or clueless inquiry, and several articles on inventions and gadgets, which are presented in an elaborately detailed “blueprint” style.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Jaffee

PF: I noticed the same thing.

Posted by Notus Wind on August 26, 2010, 12:58 PM | #

Leon: But what in the world is the second illustration supposed to be about?

It’s supposed to impress you.  Obviously, it doesn’t work all the time.

Posted by PF on August 26, 2010, 01:50 PM | #

Notus wrote:

It’s supposed to impress you.

Analytica porn. Something along the lines of: “look how they modeled
that relationship, 2 abstract variables that can only be visualized with an apparatus,
plus how they change over time - modelled visually in 3D space. It takes 6 years of college
just to parse this - ooh la la - rock me amadeus.”

Unlike noble and heroic Me, I am so far above signaling a superior understanding of anything.

Posted by boleane on August 26, 2010, 02:00 PM | #

hey its good to know…

Posted by Notus Wind on August 26, 2010, 02:22 PM | #

PF,

I am just letting Leon in on the secret as I’ve made a few pretty pictures in my day.  One time I put a picture of Goya’s Saturn on the next to last slide of a power point presentation in order to jolt everyone awake for my concluding remarks.  Witchcraft for moderns!

Posted by Matt Parrott on August 26, 2010, 02:30 PM | #

These complex systems are dramatically more fault-tolerant than either intuition or these models would lead one to believe. For example, there were Y2k bugs in numerous complex systems and many of them weren’t discovered until too late. Life went on. The very center of world trade, aptly named The World Trade Center, was taken out by jumbo jets. Untold millions of trade and finance files, documents, and subject-matter experts were reduced, respectively, to ashes and pink mist. While there was a global economic hit from the episode, it wasn’t due to the loss of complex documents, but due to blunt geopolitical considerations and investors operating on models similar to this one.

What you’re failing to balance against this is that humans are designed with just the kind of creative problem solving and fuzzy logic talent necessary to serve as a counterpoint to the logical point that shit which is more complex and and contains more dependencies more easily breaks down. A modern car is dramatically more complex than a Model T and yet less likely to break down. The modern Internet is more complex than Arpanet, yet less likely to break down. On some sort of abstract level, this is probably internally consistent.

But that’s it.

JIT and Lean/Kaizen process improvement have resulted in less inventory but they’ve also made those supply networks more nimble and durable. WalMart’s supply chain management is at the bleeding edge of process design while our military and government bureaucracies retain the more simple old-school processes. Contrast their reactions to Hurricane Katrina and you’ll see one example of how the model being presented is totally bunk. As is the whole “peak oil” thing. It’s all bunk.

Now, I’m not saying the system is invincible. What I’m saying is that when it does collapse, it won’t have a damn thing to do with thermodynamics, entropy, or fancy graphs generated with advanced statistical software. It won’t have anything to do with oil, either. The supply will diminish gradually as the reserves become more costly to reach. There will be plenty of time to bring online any one of a number of alternative energy supplies. We could go nuclear. We could use coal gasification. We could use ocean current turbines. We could even probably figure out how to maintain a similar standard of living with dramatically less energy.

Billions will survive!

Posted by PF on August 26, 2010, 03:07 PM | #

Interesting view, Matt.

You wrote:

Now, I’m not saying the system is invincible. What I’m saying is that when it does collapse, it won’t have a damn thing to do with thermodynamics, entropy, or fancy graphs generated with advanced statistical software.

Given what you’ve written, why or on what basis do you forsee any collapse coming at all?

I too am amazed at the plasticity of things.

LOL @ “Billions will survive!”

Posted by PF on August 26, 2010, 03:26 PM | #

Notus wrote:

I am just letting Leon in on the secret as I’ve made a few pretty pictures in my day.  One time I put a picture of Goya’s Saturn on the next to last slide of a power point presentation in order to jolt everyone awake for my concluding remarks.  Witchcraft for moderns!

I cant believe you’re a prof. Is it possible for this website to be any more prestigious?

Plus by my count we get fringe-cred and underground-cred, add that to our brain-cred and radical chic-cred and you’ve got a highly acred-ited website. Now we just need to start a WN dating service, and we’ll be set for life.

Posted by Matt Parrott on August 26, 2010, 03:34 PM | #

PF,
Given what you’ve written, why or on what basis do you forsee any collapse coming at all?

I had actually written ‘if’ and backspaced it, replacing it with ‘when’. I did so because the likelihood of a collapse does reach 1. It might be well after the sun dies, on a galaxy far away, but it will happen. Now, that’s obviously an asinine point. But we’re being asinine. I’m working on getting the color scheme just right on my carefully pivoted 3D chart illustrating that point.

If I had to place chips, I would place them on the “collapse” occurring no sooner than a decade from now. There are just too many tricks still up their sleeves that they can still play before the gig is up. I believe “the collapse” will be a bit like a cross between the collapse of the Soviet Union and the collapse of South Africa. Things will probably be godawful in the cities, but White Americans will retreat to the countryside and do alright.

From there, my oracle becomes blurry. But I’m pretty sure it will involve me riding a stallion into battle, restoring the glory of the White American nation for a brief time, then blowing it all on a foolish and disastrous land war in Asia.

Posted by PF on August 26, 2010, 04:18 PM | #

Matt wrote:

If I had to place chips, I would place them on the “collapse” occurring no sooner than a decade from now. There are just too many tricks still up their sleeves that they can still play before the gig is up. I believe “the collapse” will be a bit like a cross between the collapse of the Soviet Union and the collapse of South Africa. Things will probably be godawful in the cities, but White Americans will retreat to the countryside and do alright.

This is what I see too.

I teeter back and forth between Soren’s “suddenist” view of the collapse and your “gradualist” one. (Assuming I’ve understood Soren’s position; always dangerous to assume.)

The US is certainly set up for a “gradualist” collapse caused by ‘endogenous’ factors. I mean purely on the basis of how we’ve run policy internally.

I wonder if the unpredictable nonlinearities of foreign markets, the possibility of war, and this oil thing will be enough for “suddenist” collapse of some kind.

Posted by Jimmy Marr on August 26, 2010, 05:13 PM | #

Is it possible for this website to be any more prestigious?

Plus by my count we get fringe-cred and underground-cred, add that to our brain-cred and radical chic-cred and you’ve got a highly acred-ited website. Now we just need to start a WN dating service, and we’ll be set for life.

True. Too bad its the wrong color scheme to lure Matt in more regularly.

Posted by Drifter on August 26, 2010, 08:37 PM | #

There are problems with Matt’s examples. Coal gas and nuclear each require petroleum for their production, the supporting infrastructure, and their distribution. The act of changing over from diesel to coal gas heavy rigs to perform all the heavy lifting, earth moving and cargo hauling alone would bankrupt us. An Asimovian fission pile for an engine for a powerful tractor is just that - science fiction, because it would increase the mass and volume of the rig so much it could not function in its role.

Let’s not forget the ability to project power factor. While western tanks may operate on any combustible fluid, we have no high performance fighter or bomber aircraft that are nuclear powered. Will coal gas suffice for jet fuel?

Petrol isn’t so easily dismissed as a best known, best all around fuel source. The nation with the last few billion liters of petrol reserves will be the one with its permanent garrison and puppet rulers in our cities. There is a real race on to isolate and control these sources globally.

We don’t even need to start on Peak Fresh Water which is also just beginning to appear and which is not less critical to our heavy industry and our ability to project power.

Posted by Matt Parrott on August 26, 2010, 09:36 PM | #

Drifter,

There will be a long, slow, relaxing glide down the downslope of peak oil with which to work all those details out.

But forget energy and water, the Internet is drying up!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion

I think the whole “fresh water” thing is bunk, too. But keep that on the down low. I intend to exploit panic about that to promote “The Midwest Imperative: Like the Northwest Imperative, but with neighbors!” Indiana has so much fresh water that we have to pour thousands upon thousands of gallons of it into the Ohio River and Great Lakes every day just to keep from drowning in the stuff.

Posted by Fred Scrooby on August 26, 2010, 10:16 PM | #

”Now we just need to start a WN dating service,”  (—PF)

That is a drop-dead fantastic idea!  Moreover, definitely an idea whose time has come, if ever there was one.  Someone has to start one of those.

Posted by Jimmy Marr on August 26, 2010, 10:38 PM | #

Someone has to start one of those.

Don’t forget about April Gaede: http://www.splcenter.org/blog/2010/01/25/neo-nazi-stage-mom-seeks-a-new-line-of-work/

Posted by Jimmy Marr on August 26, 2010, 10:57 PM | #

Fred,

Check with James Bowery about the dating service. His recent article, Antisemitic LBK Undead Blitz Megalithic France indicates a possible awareness of the whereabouts of gullible “125 IQ coeds with big bazooms”.

I wanted to inquire at the time, but was too shy.

Posted by Drifter on August 26, 2010, 11:28 PM | #

Matt, you’re dodging the issue. There is no comparable replacement for petrol fuel. None. The Peak Water thing may not be a problem for Indiana. But, does Third World immigration increase or decrease as fresh water crisis escalates in other parts of the world? What about the dedication of fossil fuels to assuring a growing volume of fresh water is available to growing numbers of people worldwide? Increase or decrease? None of this has a snazzy subnet masking resolution so the non sequitur isn’t going to fly.

Posted by Jimmy Marr on August 27, 2010, 12:18 AM | #

I can’t stop thinking about the dating service. Being something of matchmaker myself, I envision a brand new website designed by Matt Parrottt, and operated by April Gaede.

Under the guidance of James Bowery, dedicated volunteers like myself will conduct a vigilant and exhaustive talent search for the recruitment of female participants, who will easily be lured in by the prospects of co-stardom in interviews with Søren Renner on Majority Radio!

How can it fail? Please get started ASAP, Matt. And don’t be stingy with the pastels. Meanwhile, I’ll speak to April about overcoming her tendency to deny the holocaust.

Yes, we can!

Posted by Fred Scrooby on August 27, 2010, 12:25 AM | #

Jimmy I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic about the dating service idea, but I’m most definitely not:  it strikes me as a fantastic idea.

gullible “125 IQ coeds with big bazooms”  (—Jimmy Marr)

OK except the women our guys would be interested in (and who, presumably, would reciprocate)  wouldn’t be gullible, Jimmy.  They’d have female instincts that were sound and sure (regardless of IQ or bazoom size).

Posted by Jimmy Marr on August 27, 2010, 01:03 AM | #

Fred,

My comment comes across as sarcastic, but my intention was just goodhearted humor.

Of course 125 I.Q.s are not gullible, except in the context of James’ original comment about Stephen Jay Gould’s “interpretive” persuasiveness. 

I think the dating service is a good idea.

Posted by Matt Parrott on August 27, 2010, 03:13 AM | #

Drifter,

Peak Oil and Peak Water are every bit as baseless and alarmist as the IP Famine. There are several qualified candidates for replacing petrol fuel, many of which are only slightly more expensive. But we won’t need to worry about replacing petrol fuel for decades at current usage rates, anyway.

Now you’re changing the subject on me, and making it about the unsustainable situation in the third world world and with their unchecked immigration into the first world. I take this seriously. Third world populations are generally not capable of the kind of creative problem solving that we in the West are famous for. Contrast the Iowa and Katrina floods, for instance.

I do indeed believe that the world’s populations will eventually bounce back to norms, population levels, and standards of living commensurate with their innate capabilities. But it won’t have anything to do with fresh water or this mysterious “petrol” you Europeans fill your cars with. We use gasoline and/or corn, here.

Zimbabweans will starve to death on God’s most fertile soil, the Congolese will struggle in wrenching poverty atop the world’s richest trove of wealth. Icelanders will thrive on a volcanic rock in the frigid North. Japs, Jews, and Germans will bounce back from unthinkable adversity within mere months. Black thugs will turn the world’s manufacturing capital, one nestled in the world’s most fertile soil, set beside the world’s largest body of fresh water, and surrounded by the world’s most industrious and gullible people, into a third world disaster zone.

Please know that I’m adapting a common idiom when I say this and not personally attacking you…

“It’s the blood, stupid.”

Posted by Dr Graham Lister on August 27, 2010, 07:20 AM | #

Of topic but now the Guardian even has anti-white BS about football (soccer) crowds in England. Remember “diversity is our greatest strength” repeat forever it seems GROAN.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/aug/26/football-diverse-crowds

Posted by Fred Scrooby on August 27, 2010, 07:36 AM | #

Third world populations are generally

not

capable of the kind of creative problem solving that we in the West are famous for.  Contrast the Iowa and Katrina floods, for instance. […] Zimbabweans will starve to death on God’s most fertile soil, the Congolese will struggle in wrenching poverty atop the world’s richest trove of wealth.  Icelanders will thrive on a volcanic rock in the frigid North.  Japs, Jews, and Germans will bounce back from unthinkable adversity within mere months.  Black thugs will turn the world’s manufacturing capital, one nestled in the world’s most fertile soil, set beside the world’s largest body of fresh water, and surrounded by the world’s most industrious and gullible people, into a third world disaster zone. […] “It’s the blood, stupid.” 

(—Matt Parrott)

Well said.

Posted by Drifter on August 27, 2010, 10:06 AM | #

The last time I checked the politics of the creative types, their solution for Zimbabweans is not to teach them to utilize the land, which has been shown a futile pursuit, but to instead import them. Oh, and corn oil is not high performance fuel, the stuff needed for victory with airpower and armor.

Posted by Lurker on August 27, 2010, 12:06 PM | #

Drifter - if no-one has the fuel, we are all in the same boat, with whatever innate advantges/disadvantages are already there.

The M-1 tank is powerd by a gas turbine but I’ve no doubt could be adpted to run with a diesel engine powered by vegetable oil. The nearest equivlent, the British Challenger tank has a multi-fuel engine, will run on whatever is available, jet fuel, diesel etc. Their real advantges are in better fire control, better armour, better guns.

The real western miltary advantages are in better organisation, better use of technology as a force multiplier. Faster tanks, high performance jets are just luxury items. If shortage of fuel limits the number of tanks and planes any state can use, the advantages will be with those other factors - as they are now.

Just in the US military look how the basic military equipment has changed so little in decades.

The F15 and F16 have been in use for over 30 years. The F/A18 is only just short of 30 years service. The hardware has been pretty stable for years, whats changed is the electronics, computers, command, communications and control. The Sidewinder and Sparrow AAMs have seen over 50 years service. The west could be using WW2 aircraft, tanks and ships now and still win wars, the advantages they have are not in the raw mechanical power of the equipment.

Posted by Leon Haller on August 28, 2010, 04:51 AM | #

Not quite, Lurker. I am not so sure of the white military character anymore. How does the dysgenic decline of whites over the past 100 years play into this? My uncle was a career US military officer, and he was of the opinion that the human quality of the white recruits had gone down over the decades of his service. I think we win mainly due to economics and our willingness to spend ourselves into penury on military budgets.

Posted by cladrastis on August 28, 2010, 08:46 AM | #

Water scarcity is a local rather than global problem.  As something like 85% of freshwater use is for industry (including power generation), the water scarcity problem will largely solve itself during the ineluctable Event.  Peak oil is very real, unless you ask an economist (who, ordained by his profession, is the purveyor of all wisdom and truth). 

So…how about those lifeboats that Linkola wrote about?

Posted by Matt Parrott on August 28, 2010, 10:50 AM | #

How can all these intelligent people buy into this peak oil rubbish? I’m not some kind of neocon corporate tosser. I’m deeply concerned about multinational corporations and their effect on the environment. I’m all about sustainability. But there is a ridiculous amount of oil, oil that’s still practically oozing up out of the ground “Beverly Hillbilly-style. We haven’t even started resorting to the oil that’s a bit harder to get at. We haven’t even started resorting to the energy-rich shale deposits. We haven’t even started gasifying the boggling amounts of coal. We haven’t even started to seriously explore obvious alternatives like nuclear, ocean current turbines, and geothermal power.

What am I missing? What article do I need to read in order to not see this as millennial garbage?