Demography challenge

Posted by Papa Luigi on December 30, 2011, 09:37 AM | #

The spreadsheet provided was not annotated sufficiently to make it readily understandable, but in rough terms with a total period fertility rate of 1.2, with each successive generation the population of reproductive age or lower will be reduced to 60% of the that which existed previously.

For an initial population of 500 million to be reduced to the numbers suggested, would therefore take approximately:

50 million - reached after c. 5 generations or 125 years (assuming a generation to be 25 years);
10 million - reached after c. 8 generations or 200 years;
5 million - reached after c. 10 generations or 250 years;
1 million - reached after c. 13 generations or 325 years; and
500 - reached after c. 28 generations or 700 years.

In reality, extinction would come significantly quicker than this as with each passing generation, the ratio of non-Whites to Whites in society would increase and therefore the scope for miscegination to take place, and the consequent incidence of miscegination would accelerate the process.

I am reminded of a tennis match in which Martina Navratalova was on the verge of defeat. She succeeded in winning the next points however and thus a turning point in the match was reached, following which Martina went on to eventually win. After the match a commentaor asked her what the secret was that enabled her to turn the tables on her adversary and she said there was nothing complicated or sophisticated involved, she simply realised that she just had to ‘keep knocking the ball back over the net’.

The moral for us in this story is that in order to to prevent our extinction as a people, nothing complicated or sophisticated is required, we simply have to produce one more child than we might have otherwise. By doing this we will raise our total period fertility rate from 1.2 to 2.2 and the process of declining numbers will go into reverse.

Posted by kenday on December 30, 2011, 09:39 AM | #

This is speech in Oriana is something to consider.

http://sarahmaidofalbion.blogspot.com/2011/12/speech-delivered-by-aaron-kahland-at.html

Posted by Leon Haller on December 30, 2011, 09:45 AM | #

The moral for us in this story is that in order to to prevent our extinction as a people, nothing complicated or sophisticated is required, we simply have to produce one more child than we might have otherwise. By doing this we will raise our total period fertility rate from 1.2 to 2.2 and the process of declining numbers will go into reverse. (Papa)

What is more important: increasing white fertility, or slowing/ending nonwhite immigration? I incline towards the latter, though the longer it continues, the more important becomes the former. What an odious situation we’re in - all so very unnecessary, so originally preventable.

Posted by Søren Renner on December 30, 2011, 10:11 AM | #

As a bitter joke, the post works excellently. Hundreds of years of decline await us! We tremble on the threshold of a new day which will be very like the millions of other days to follow!

Posted by uh on December 30, 2011, 10:17 AM | #

What is more important: increasing white fertility, or slowing/ending nonwhite immigration?

Only lebensraum and total social collapse provide conditions favorable to an increase in white births. There is no targeting it, as is evident from the failure of maternity pay-outs in France and Italy, the latter still with the second-lowest birthrate in Europe. Bottom line, which you all rose to deny in a paroxysm of white-knighting: White women with money for Starbuck’s don’t breed enough.

So of the two, only immigration is open to some correction. Unless you’d like to renounce your allegiance to Mammon and join we nihilists.

The moral for us in this story is that in order to to prevent our extinction as a people, nothing complicated or sophisticated is required, we simply have to produce one more child than we might have otherwise.

For such a smart man, Papa, you are weirdly naif here & there. As I said before, women are white nationalists’ biggest blind spot. Here you are talking about genes and you’ve missed the forest (evolutionary strategy) for the trees (genes). High-investment parenting + good living conditions + crowding = below replacement fertility. There is no “simply” in correcting this enormous and necessary failure in social dynamics. If early maternity, higher degrees of in-breeding, and poor living conditions are responsible for adequate natality, how is there a “simple” solution beyond the ease of saying “we simply have to produce one more child”? You don’t even address women there — women exist on a pedestal ‘neath which white nationalists just chatter away, oblivious to their total lack of interest in anything past Facebook.

Greying Wanderer / anon goes on all the time about white people being higher in empathy due to a much higher degree of out-breeding. Ok. So how is it even possible to expect in-bred behaviors from out-bred people?

In reality, “simply hav[ing] to produce one more child” is the most fraught and unrealistic idea you could propose.

In reality, extinction would come significantly quicker than this as with each passing generation, the ratio of non-Whites to Whites in society would increase and therefore the scope for miscegination to take place, and the consequent incidence of miscegination would accelerate the process.

Well said though.

Posted by Liberal Heresy on December 30, 2011, 11:23 AM | #

@Uh

Only lebensraum and total social collapse provide conditions favorable to an increase in white births. There is no targeting it, as is evident from the failure of maternity pay-outs in France and Italy, the latter still with the second-lowest birthrate in Europe.

Not so sure Uh. We know that economic incentives and disincentives do have an impact on European birthrates. At the bottom end through welfare payments and at the top through increased costs of living.

Also modes of living or folkways of Europeans relative to immigrant populations as covered briefly by Willets (UK MP) and expanded by Sailer ( here and here behind Vdare donation wall at present) also impact decision making.

So they are actually amenable in some (unintended) ways to intervention, good or bad. Perhaps the others formal schemes were not well designed. A limited lottery prize scheme for expectant mothers who conceive on a particular day (Russia) doesn’t sound like it would encourage many intelligent people to ‘sign-up’ for instance.

Posted by anon 7 on December 30, 2011, 11:27 AM | #

Yeah, blame the wimmins. It’s all their fault!

It’s the swan-song of the pussified White male who refuses to ‘man up’.

Posted by Silver on December 30, 2011, 03:56 PM | #

This spreadsheet, while crude, affords more precision than the one linked to above. I have another version, totally reworked, which affords much greater precision (and demographic accuracy, with respect to the past), but I haven’t incorporated miscegenation or immigration into yet it so I am going to post the original. Notes are included and should be read.  See what scenarios you can come up with.

http://uploading.com/files/febea5aa/Demography+Sim+-+USA+Model.ods/

Posted by Leon Haller on December 30, 2011, 07:20 PM | #

Well, here are some of those allegedly terrible Christians doing their part:

http://www.dailyheraldtribune.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3414612

Posted by Wolf on December 31, 2011, 04:29 PM | #

Number two is in the last stages of planning.

I would like to have three but my wife will only consider it if I make more money and can afford a larger house.

White people are having smaller families because you have to be rich to afford a reasonable family home. Have you gentlemen ever considered why every developed nation has recently undergone an eye-watering house price bubble; which apart from the US seems unburstable even in the eye of a financial storm?

Posted by jrackell on December 31, 2011, 05:46 PM | #

Wolf, good luck with your planning.  Perhaps you can substitute sugar pills in the case for numbers three through six.

I don’t know where you live, so my knowledge applies to the US, but it’s never been easier to have large families than right now, I believe.  Start using the system!  Get on WIC if you can qualify.  This is free baby formula and milk, eggs, cheese for the family.  Get on Section 8 if you can qualify.  I know a black woman with 3 kids close by paying $400 for the near exact same house I’m paying 2,000 a month for.  I’ve heard of other cases.  It doesn’t pay not to use the system.

Your school age kids can most probably get free school lunches and increasingly breakfast from the government.

White people have certain compunctions for using the system to their advantage as if by doing so it taints them somehow.  Rail against it all you like, but you are paying for it.  In Oregon, free health care for kids on the OHP. 

Some of this doesn’t apply if you above a certain threshold, but the government is making it very difficult not to be poor and broke and sponging.  We are self-employed and have tax complications, when we could quit working and live off the government with the exact same standard of living without complications from taxes and student loan debts. 

Clothes from kids from thrift shop or consignment store or Goodwill costs cents on the dollar and they’ve hardly ever been used or show signs of wear.  and they can be redonated/

Larger families can buy in bulk from Costco etc so the cost per person goes way down.  That 20lb jar of pickles actually gets used.

Posted by Kievsky on January 01, 2012, 10:52 AM | #

The ponzi scheme that supports colored birthrates will crash before whties go extinct.  Do the math and you’ll see.

Posted by bombkangaroo on January 03, 2012, 06:26 PM | #

“Have you gentlemen ever considered why every developed nation has recently undergone an eye-watering house price bubble; which apart from the US seems unburstable even in the eye of a financial storm?”

Absolutely. Immigration and high immigrant fertility is used to shore up demand for house prices, which inflates the cost of housing, helping to maintain the credit bubble. Recently we’ve seen “call me dave” talking about the government assisting first time buyers, since they know we can’t afford to get on the housing ladder ourselves.

Posted by Bill on January 04, 2012, 05:05 AM | #

In the wake of the Lawrence ‘guilty’ trial, Mary Riddell of the Telegraph has an article up ‘Lawrence verdict a tribute to advances in law and science. But has society kept pace?’

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/maryriddell/100126946/lawrence-verdict-a-tribute-to-advances-in-law-and-science-but-has-society-kept-pace/#disqus_thread

There are 800 comments at present, this could easily become a 1000’er.

I do not read Ms. Riddell I go straight to the comments.

What do I think of it so far?  Pick of the bunch to date is this one from a regular contributor who seems to know what he is talking about.

danoconnor
Yesterday 10:24 PM
RidleyRumpus

Do you realize that what you have just said is mxzlist ? 

The core cannon of Left progressivism can best be defined in this way.

A collective indictment against White civlization for
  ” crimes against humanity ” .

If white people did not exist , the Left would collapse .
The reason that justifies its existence would collapse .

The central tenant of Left progressivism is, its very raison d’etre is anti-Racism .
There is a constant underlying subliminal theme to the Left’s 60 year totalitarian grip on the cultural narrative .

That narrative says that the only thing standing in the way of a multicultral post-racist utopia on earth , is a bunch of angry racist white men.

.

Posted by Lurker on January 04, 2012, 06:22 AM | #

I upvote all Dan’s comments whenever I can!

Posted by Liberal Heresy on January 04, 2012, 11:24 AM | #

Lurker

I upvote all Dan’s comments whenever I can!

That’s a lot of ‘likes’ Lurker, he’s never off of Disqus. The quality does vary but it is all our way, fighting the good fight. I see he frequently follows ‘John Piggott’s’ lead. Those who wonder at the long absences of GW, might consider joining in there.

Posted by Lurker on January 04, 2012, 02:43 PM | #

Ive been there today upvoting ‘John Piggott’ and Dan.

And Im a big fan of of someone called ‘Britlurker’ too, he makes quite a few comments there as well.

Posted by Bill on January 04, 2012, 03:44 PM | #

The ramifications and far reaching consequences of the Lawrence ‘guilty’ trial are slowly sinking into the mind of the Telegraph commenting cognoscenti, the dawning fear in the ‘not quite sure what’s going on here’ brigade is palpable.

The liberal elite couldn’t give a monkey’s who is guilty, this case has never been about Lawrence.  They had to get a result to ram home the message.  Two white faces have gone down.  That’ll learn’em!

The charge of racism is the WMD in the elite’s locker, and its success vital in the scheme of things to come.  If the heresy smear of racism fails I leave it to your imagination.  The New World Order is up and running.

Alas, as to the wider population they’re clueless.

Really you know, this case should stuck at the top of this blog.

One cannot feasibly read and absorb 1000 comments, the best one can do is skim and scroll to get the general flavour of reaction.  As usual it is very mixed.

The press onslaught on the white psyche this morning must surely rate as the sign of things to come.

What to do about all those whites cheer leading the liberal victory for justice.

I haven’t seen today’s back-slap fest on the BBC News.  But I can imagine.

This comment came off the stocks just before lunch today, didn’t know whether to post or not.

Regret being o/t but I didn’t want this to get buried.

Posted by Liberal Heresy on January 04, 2012, 07:53 PM | #

And Im a big fan of of someone called ‘Britlurker’ too, he makes quite a few comments there as well.

I have duly also made my ‘like’ against your most recent comment Lurker, me and 21 others. Plus a couple of Mr P’s. I find the volume of commentary there too high to follow. The existential argument of JP goes unanswered, my occasional efforts reek of overkill. It is good that we seed the threads, especially with quality replies and pitch it at the level of your daily DT reader. Thankfully the swarms are busy elsewhere.

SG

Posted by Lurker on January 04, 2012, 09:55 PM | #

Thanks for that LH.  I’ll be looking out for you, what name?

Posted by Silver on January 05, 2012, 12:14 AM | #

The ponzi scheme that supports colored birthrates will crash before whties go extinct.  Do the math and you’ll see.

There’s something hilarious about an ignoramus like Kievsky encouraging others to “do the math” (as though he’s done it himself, as though he knows what he’s talking about). 

So what if the “ponzi scheme” crashes?  So what if colored birthrates begin to reduce at a more rapid pace (they are reducing at a fairly rapid clip even now)?  None of it implies colored “extinction” (in the the thoroughly idiotic but characteristically overwrought “billions will die!” sense).  Racial others will still be around.

If racial others are still around it implies more mixing, which in turn implies more—not less—integration; warmer—not colder—feelings towards racial others; less intense—not more intense—aversion or revulsion; lesser—not greater—likelihood of effecting any form of separation. 

So the implicit suggestion in “do the math and you’ll see,” which is to not worry about demographic issues, could not be more wrong.  Aside from certain nationalist obsessions (more or less 24/7 race-worship) which will only ever appeal to few, demographics is essentially the crux of the issue.  Solve demographics, virtually everything else falls into place; ignore it, little else will matter.

Posted by Williams on January 08, 2012, 06:46 PM | #

jrackell says on December 31, 2011, 05:46 PM

“I don’t know where you live, so my knowledge applies to the US, but it’s never been easier to have large families than right now, I believe.  Start using the system!  Get on WIC if you can qualify.”

You may find this post of interest:

http://elliotlakenews.wordpress.com/2010/12/31/black-population-welfare-bomb/

Posted by Lurker on May 11, 2012, 04:33 AM | #

ELLIOT LAKE News & Views now added to links.