Europe’s Future Challenges

Europe’s Future Challenges

by Kai Murros

The greatest threats to Europe’s economic and social stability and actual physical survival in the future are the population explosion in the developing world, global ecological crisis, the depleting natural resources and the globalization of the economy. The survival of our civilization depends on our ability to solve these problems - we must be prepared to take decisive action to protect Europe from the perils of the collapsing world. It would be a mistake to see these global problems as separate problems since they are always intertwined. They are, after all, only different aspects of the same Primary Problem. An even greater mistake would be to believe that anyone else but us has the intellectual, cultural and material means to deal with these problems.

The Primary Problem our planet is facing today is the diffusion of the effects of the western scientific-industrial revolution to non-European societies. The world is out of balance as practically all human societies on the planet are being ravaged by the violent changes of modernization. The scientific-industrial revolution, which originated in Europe and catapulted our civilization to its zenith, has found its way to every corner of the world so that there is no traditional culture left untouched by its side effects.

The present population explosion has long historical roots - going back at least to the 18th century in Europe.

The population of Europe had been steadily growing ever since the massive collapse caused by the Black Death in the 14th century. Due to various reasons there was a considerable decline in the mortality during the 18th century, which then was followed by massive population growth—the growth rate in Europe in those days was the same as in the Third World today.

A growing population was our demographical weapon, which combined with the scientific revolution and growing industrial output provided us with the means to conquer the world.

Today, after a long period of demographical transition, our population growth has virtually stopped and will soon be in decline. Historically we have moved from High Fertility + High Mortality -phase to High Fertility + Low Mortality -phase and finally have reached the Low Fertility + Low Mortality -phase with a quickly ageing population.

At the same time the results of the scientific and industrial revolution have spread into the Third World resulting in a High Fertility + Low Mortality –phase with massive population explosion.

The question of life and death for our planet is: How long will the demographic transition take in the Third World - that is, how long will it take from the Third World to move from High Fertility + Low Mortality phase to Low Fertility + Low Mortality phase?

If this demographic transition takes 200 years like in Europe the planet is doomed—100 years is equally impossible. In fact we have to be able to find a way to curb the population growth within the next 50 years—which also, unfortunately, seems to be impossible.

The biggest obstacle seems to be the fact that this demographic transition requires creating an industrial society to increase the material production and in this way to dramatically raise people’s living standards. This is exactly what happened in Europe between 1770-1970 and today it would still seem impossible to bring about a similar demographic transition in the Third World without a massive improvement in the material means of life.

The problem however is whether it is possible because it has been estimated that this would require 4.6 times the resources of our planet. In short we can say that in order to save our planet from the perils of the population explosion we should be able to create a global industrial consumer society which is just as impossible as the current population growth run by poverty and backwardness.

We must also bear in mind that industrialisation alone didn’t absorb the ever-swelling masses of Europe’s rural poor.

At the critical juncture of our history when the population growth reached its height Europe was blessed with boundless opportunities to colonize new land: The Americas, Australia, New Zealand, Siberia, large parts of Southern and Eastern Africa absorbed the demographic pressure of millions of Europeans when the pace of industrialization was not quick enough to provide these people with jobs and income.

Today, 100-200 years later we encounter these migrations again except that this time the world is packed. There are no empty continents to colonize, no wilderness to tame and to settle. The Third World poor are now pushing into our densely populated societies with only a modest economic growth, which reduces the ever-increasing masses of low-skilled labour permanently into a hostile underclass.

Our conclusion must then be that there are simply too many people on this planet. Human population is not qualitatively different from any other population of social animals. Human intelligence has made it possible for the human race to break the environmental limitations and grow exponentially… at least until now.

Demographic expansion, which used to be our strength, has become our weakness. Now we are in danger of being overwhelmed by more expansive populations. Like in nature, these populations will keep on growing as long as they can send their surplus to colonize new territory. The masses of the Third World will keep on growing until they reach and cross the absolute limit their habitat can sustain, after which they will collapse. As long as Europe, Australia, USA and Canada allow the flux of immigrants from the Third World, the growth will continue unchecked.

The population explosion in the Third World will be the final push in the exponential growth of mankind beyond the limits of earth’s sustainability, a process that started in the 18th. Century in Europe.

By absorbing the population surplus of the Third World we are only facilitating the growth and in this way speeding up the global ecological disaster.

It is clear that with a rapidly growing population the attempts to increase consumption per capita in the long run fail because the natural resources nevertheless remain limited and as a result the amount of available resources per capita is only shrinking.

Some optimists seem to think that it could be possible for the developing economies to avoid our “mistakes” and bring about an industrial revolution and improve the material standard of living of the poor by acquiring sophisticated technology that pollutes less and consumes less energy and resources. These optimists place their faith in technology that one could avoid phase 1. and go straight to phase 2.

This however is simple fantasy given the enormity of the problem – the staggering amount of poor whose lives should be improved and the short time span when this should happen. In the coming decades an estimated 1,2 billion people will enter the job market and only about 300 million will find employment if things remain as they are.

Also nobody really seems to know exactly what this new environmentally friendly technology should be like. We may assume that new technology is always more expensive than the old technology. Therefore if the developing economies wish to repeat the industrial revolution of the West and improve their standard of living, they will have to resort to less sophisticated labour intensive technology, which also consumes more energy and raw materials and pollutes more.

Since even we haven’t yet reached phase 2. it is difficult to think that the industrialization of the Third World could be ecologically any friendlier than the industrialization of the West originally was.

It is very unlikely that science in the foreseeble future can make breakthroughs that would increase the amount of usable natural resources - at least in such quantities that it would satisfy the growing needs in time. As the natural resources are getting more scarce while the demand is growing, the direct result is that the Third World societies are under increasing strain.

POLITICAL COLLAPSE

Many Third World countries are in danger of collapsing under the intense pressure of growing population. Many African countries have long ago ceased to function as states and have been reduced into mere theoretical political concepts. Population explosion causes a massive strain on the social structure intensifying the conflict between the rich and the poor and in case there actually is economic growth, the growing population has the tendency to strip societies of its results since the number of the poor grows quicker than the economy.

As the social and economic strain builds up, new political and religious extremist groups will emerge – the rise of radical Islam can be seen as a way of channelling the social frustration of the Islamic world. The modern megacities should be seen as incubators of violence in a global scale.

Global population explosion and the depleting natural resources create not only internal threats to poor societies but also external threats. Future wars will be fought over basic necessities of life – water, arable land and maybe even clean air. These future wars will be ecological wars, they may decide the starvation or survival of millions of people. The future wars will mean the introduction of ecological factors into global politics and geo-strategy.

Third World societies will eventually plunge into chaos as it will become impossible to govern such massive populations. The refugee problem we face today is only an appetizer to what will come in the future. The number of refugees will grow exponentially – large sections of the population in the poor south will be on the move desperately seeking for a better life, desperately trying to survive. More and more people will be on the move due to environmental reasons and it will be increasingly difficult to tell apart political refugees from environmental refugees as social, political and ecological crisis intertwine.

GLOBALIZATION

Much of the current industrial activity in the developing economies is largely the result of outsourcing of western industrial base to countries with substandard wages and working conditions and no environmental laws. For decades the economists have been explaining to us that this erosion of Europe’s industrial base only benefits us and the entire world in the long run – by now it should be clear to everybody that this is not the case.

The outsourcing of Europe’s industrial base brings us two serious problems:
1. Mass unemployment in Europe
2. Loss of tax revenues

The massive loss of industrial jobs during the last few decades hasn’t been balanced by an equal number of reasonably payed service jobs – as was the original liberal economic theory. The opposite has happened instead – the ample supply of new low-skilled workers from the Third World has often reduced service jobs to modern slavery with less than minimum wages and substandard working conditions. As a result large numbers of Europeans suffer now from perpetual poverty.

Outsourcing of industry has turned large sections of Europe into a decaying wasteland and people living there into a rotting underclass predetermined to a life of poverty and misery. This plague of post-industrialism is only spreading as the global liberal economy deems most ethnic Europeans redundant and useless.

If we choose to accept this post-industrial fallacy we are committing a slow suicide. The power and wealth of the western civilization came from industrial production. If we now deliberately give up our industrial base, we are also fragmenting the bedrock of our civilization. TV game shows and Mac jobs will not sustain our global power and strength nor our pride as a race. We must have the intellectual courage to challenge the prevailing paradigm in modern economics which states that outsourcing Europe’s industrial strength benefits not only us but the whole world.

The outsourcing of industry mostly to China and India also means that the profits the transnational corporations accumulate cannot be taxed. This erosion of tax base leads eventually to a collapse of the western nation states as they become increasingly incapable of providing basic services for their citizens and maintaining the infrastructure. So far we have been able to avoid this pitfall simply by borrowing more money.

By allowing the transnational corporations to move industrial production and capital freely, we accept their dominance over us. We accept that these companies operate beyond our laws and keep to themselves all the profits they make by utilizing cheap non-European labour and our buying power.

We have allowed transnational corporations to grow more powerful than nation states, we have allowed them to extort us, to bleed us and to abuse us. We have allowed the transnational conglomerate complex to become more powerful than European civilization itself. We have been led to believe that the prosperity of transnational corporations is our prosperity as well – once we realize that this is not the case, we will deem transnational corporations redundant.

Transnational corporations are mere paper tigers. They are not natural communities that are based on blood, soil and emotional ties. Transnational corporations are market places where people gather to sell their work force. Transnational corporations are based on immaterial agreements and on the delicate balance between greed and trust. Once the trust is gone, the transnational corporation dissolves. In the end it will be very easy to shake transnational corporations off our back – their power is a only an illusion – we can knock them down with a feather.

A transnational corporation cannot exist without natural communities. The immaterial and parasitical nature of transnational corporations requires the existence of concrete natural communities. Transnational corporations devour the nation states and their life energy. A transnational corporation needs the nation state and the services it provides – services it demands free of charge – everything the transnational corporation then does only wrecks the human society in which it operates.

The driving force behind modern global capitalism is the disparity between the affluent West and the poor Third World. Modern global capitalism thrives as long it can demolish the western societies without them falling into utter chaos. Once the western societies are dilapidated enough, utter chaos breaks out and global capitalism ends.

The greatest threat to the ecosphere comes from western industrial production that has been outsourced to Third World countries. The poor chaotic societies down south are totally unable and unwilling to control how the environmental needs are met in these sprawling industrial plants. Had the industrial complex stayed in Europe, it could have been scrutinized and placed under strictest supervision until all environmental needs would have been met. Instead the opposite happened – the very competitive advantage of the developing economies is the lack of environmental laws or their inefficient supervision.

It is ironic that as Europe is getting weaker by haemorrhaging its industrial strength into the Third World, it is also speeding up the process of global environmental collapse.

CHINA
For nearly three decades we have been mesmerized by the cataclysmic growth of the Chinese economy. The sheer scale of China’s growth has been unprecedented in world history. China’s growth obviously has had ideological implications as well – we have been told to see it as an example of the inevitable victory of global capitalism and liberal economics. China’s success has been used to put a squeeze on the European working class by telling how lazy, fat, slow and inept they are when compared with Chinese commercial greed, agility and endurance.

China’s success has been heralded as the demise of the western dominance but also as the victory of global corporate capitalism over nation states and welfare societies. China has been the most important instrument for the transnational corporations in wrecking the social structure of the western world. China has been used as an example for the European working class and middle class of the new social reality they should accept. China’s success has resulted in widespread reverse racism in the European world - reverse racism with a definite liberal agenda.

But the question remains: Will East prevail over West?

My answer is NO!

In view of China’s past history we can make an assumption that despite all the recent success China is experiencing the last stages of the so-called “dynastic cycle”. The reoccurring pattern in China’s history has been the rise and fall of dynasties. A dynastic cycle begins when the country is united by a new energetic dynasty after a period of chaos, civil war and barbarian invasions.

When the dynastic cycle is then closing to an end, the symptoms of weakness become evident. These symptoms are:
1. Overpopulation. During peacetime peasant population tends to grow very quickly if there are no famines or epidemics to curb the growth. This is because peasants need big families to ensure a sufficiently large workforce.
2. Growing social tension. As the number of the poor keeps growing, arable land tends to be concentrated into larger and larger estates. Historically peasant farms have a tendency to fragment and then to gravitate into larger units.
3. Widespread corruption in the civil service as the landed gentry wields political power through bribery. Political influence helps the gentry to exploit the poor and the small holders.
4. Natural disasters in the most densely populated areas where the cultivation/exploitation of the arable land is most extensive.
5. Government’s chronic shortage of cash due to a corrupt civil service, overextended construction projects and growing expenditures of the lavish court.

Frequent peasant uprisings indicate that the system has used its energy and is beginning to collapse from the inside. Finally the whole country is engulfed in a bitter civil war usually accompanied by an invasion of the nomadic tribes who exploit the situation. When the emperor loses the mandate of heaven in the eyes of the people, the dynastic cycle ends only to start again after some time.

All the aforementioned symptoms can be seen in present-day China. China’s communist party is simply a modern dynasty started by Chairman Mao, a dynasty which cannot escape the logic of the dynastic cycle.

1. China is plagued by an enormous population growth – even if the One Child Policy works, China’s population will nevertheless grow considerably simply because the Chinese live longer.

2. The enormous industrial growth has caused a state ecological disaster in large parts of China. Most of China’s rivers are polluted and the level of ground water is falling. Intensive farming has also turned large parts of Northern China into a dust bowl. To deal with the impending ecological disaster would require enormous sums of money, which China doesn’t have and political will, which China also lacks since the whole system is geared to produce a maximum of profit in a minimum of time to bridge the gap between China and the West as soon as possible. China’s competitive advantage is its nonexistent environmental legislature. China’s government and especially the authorities on the local level do not want to take the risk of unemployment and civil unrest if companies have to be closed down due to environmental reasons.

3. The gap between the rural poor and urban population has widened ever since the start of China’s opening to capitalism. This polarization of society is causing constant unrest and is a considerable threat to stability – which is also acknowledged by the Chinese government.

4. The more China is becoming a market economy, the more Chinese civil service is becoming corrupt. Despite China’s initial success in dealing with capitalism, capitalism and a dictatorial, bureaucratic system is a very poor combination. Money has thoroughly corrupted China’s civil service. When China still was in fact a socialist country, money, material status and economic advancement didn’t mean a thing – on the contrary they could even be dangerous since a person could be singled out as a traitor. Now as the market economy has been introduced to every level of the society and getting rich is not only accepted but also endorsed by the government, it is only natural that political offices will be used for personal gains. The union between government and business is complete and politics in every level is only a continuation of business. Since the Chinese system of government is probably the least transparent in the world, the protection it provides to the individual citizen goes only as far as one can bribe the system.  In China the individual is always at the mercy of the system and at the mercy of those who have the money to bribe the system.

This naturally erodes the legitimacy of the system in the eyes of the people. So far the legitimacy of China’s ruling Communist Party was based on the fact that Communists were the national force that unified the country and drove away the foreign intruders – over the decades this has given the Communist Party an enormous clout. Secondly, the stunning success of the economy since the early 80’s and China’s emergence to the global arena have been enough to buy the loyalty of the people. Chinese people are also acutely aware of the chaos which would undoubtedly follow if the regime of the Communist Party collapsed. In China’s history there is a constant movement back and forth between chaos and restored imperial authority. The greatest fear of the Chinese people is chaos because Chinese history is full of examples of how massive the bloodshed and destruction can be when the political system collapses.

For the Chinese even a bad government is better than chaos, but the question is just how bad the government can get before it loses the mandate of heaven? When we try to assess the future of China, we must bear in mind that since the beginning of China’s opening to capitalism, China has been able to enjoy almost 30 years of unprecedented growth - so far China has been spared from serious economic setbacks. However we may take it as rule that the bigger the bull market, the bigger the bear market – when China finally will experience the first depression, it will be in relation to the staggering growth China has so far been able to enjoy. When the first serious depression hits China, the strength of the system will be put to a real test.

In short we can say that China is a paper tiger – China’s growth is based on our industrial production that has been outsourced by greedy capitalists, China’s recently accumulated wealth is our wealth which our liberal elite has handed over - as long as we keep buying Chinese products China’s economy will prosper. However, all this will come to an end as the current economic crisis worsens – the buying power of the western “post-industrial” societies will die out and as a result the flow of capital to China will end and China’s economy and society will collapse.

In the end the East will not prevail over us and neither will the South – no matter how quickly they breed. Now, as the foundations of global capitalism are falling, the cornerstone of the liberal world order is also crumbling. Finally the civilizations of the earth are put to a real test and despite all our current problems we will emerge as the winners.

Actually we need this crisis. This crisis will make us stronger, it will make us wiser and more decisive. This crisis will once again teach us to understand the fundamental truths of life – this crisis is a great opportunity to us!

The European revolution will primarily be an ecological and an environmental revolution.

We must fight the perils of population explosion.
We must halt the predatory migrations from the Third World to Europe - in a biological sense we are simply dealing with populations of rodents - something we should not forget when we are planning countermeasures to deal with this problem. We must take quick and decisive action to get the population growth under control and we must be prepared to act harshly if necessary – the stakes are too high for us to be humane and polite.

We must protect the environment from the ravages of global capitalism.
We must prevent transnational corporations from exploiting the state of lawlessness in the Third World and turning large parts of our planet into a gigantic dump. We must prevent transnational corporations from polluting our air and our oceans. Whatever these shylocks are doing in the Third World all will end up in our doorsteps eventually – climate change and pollution respect no national borders.

And we must secure Europe her fair share of the world’s natural resources at a time when they are quickly running out.

European revolution as an ecological revolution is not only an absolute necessity but also a great opportunity for our race to once again take a great leap forward. So far we have been only exploiting the earth’s resources and dominated nature. Now we will learn ways to give back, to give our contribution to this blue green oasis in the space. The European race, which by its nature is a faustian race, is the prodigal son of Gaia – and now it is time for the prodigal son to return home. The European race will become the guardian race of Mother Earth. Our supremacy over other civilizations will be based on this manifest destiny. European civilization which is the most advanced civilization on earth will also spearhead the ecological revolution just as it initiated both the scientific and industrial revolution.

It is absolutely clear that this kind of change is impossible if we allow corrupt capitalists and infantile liberals set the pace. The great technological transition in the means of production will never be accomplished if we allow transnational corporations to sabotage our economy by exploiting cheap labour with the help of the corrupt governments in the Third World.

To achieve our goals we need a global strategy, centralized planning and a ruthless will to execute these plans:

We will re-industrialize Europe.
We will re-militarize Europe.
We will re-vitalize Europe.
- Global politics will once again be dictated by European will.

New forms of production will spread as our industrial strength is re-patriated, new economic activity will energize Europe, a new enthusiasm, optimism and determination will move European masses as desperation, pessimism and indecision subside.

There will be jobs for the jobless, homes for the homeless, there will be new hope for those who thought that the future would hold nothing for them. The honour and dignity of the working men and women of Europe will be restored and our civilization will once again be strong to defend its legitimate claims on this planet.

In the coming years Europe will have to face challenges that were totally unthinkable only a few decades ago. Our position has deteriorated dramatically in 40 years – from the growth and optimism of the post-war years to the brink of chaos and extinction we are facing today. But for us Europeans defeat is not an option – this momentary weakness is our own doing – we only lost our focus about 40 years ago but our competitive edge is still intact. As we rise to meet these new challenges we will learn hard lessons about the fundamental truths of life, we will rediscover our hidden potential and eventually we will find our focus again.

We have never been challenged as a civilization as we are today. This crisis forces us Europeans finally for the first time in our history to act together united as a nation—without this crisis, there would be no unity among us. Europe has been challenged to a struggle over life and death but this very struggle will ultimately lead to Europe’s total victory.

Posted by Constantin von Hoffmeister on Tuesday, August 4, 2009 at 10:02 AM in Political analysis
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