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For the peak oil freaksSaudi officials are claiming that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will be unable to meet the long-term needs of consuming countries — at least not at existing prices. But the Saudis are not renowned for veracity. Their claim of a potential supply shortfall serves their purposes by keeping prices high, and ignores any efficiency savings that the high prices will inevitably induce, and the growth of non-Opec supplies. BP has begun to tap four giant fields off the coast of Louisiana and expects production to hit 500,000 barrels a day by 2007. Exxon Mobil expects some 27 of its new projects to flow some 1.2m barrels per day on to world markets at about the same time, and Caspian oil has begun to reach markets, as has oil being squeezed from Canada’s oil sands. Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a well regarded American consultancy, believes that so much oil will hit the market as exploration rises that prices will ease by the end of the decade. Until we can get a better view of the extent to which $60 oil will cut demand by encouraging conservation, and increase supply by making exploration more attractive, we can only guess whether $100 oil, or $60 oil, or even $30 oil is in our future. But we do know that the current price has not — some would add, yet — derailed the job- and wealth-creating American economic locomotive. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-1687754,00.html Posted by jonjayray on Sunday, July 10, 2005 at 08:50 PM in Economics & Finance Comments:Next entry: Were the original Indo-Europeans from Europe, Asia or India? Previous entry: Doesn’t anyone love this country anymore? |
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Posted by John S Bolton on July 11, 2005, 05:40 PM | #
Every oil shock has caused a recession, and this is a bad one. The transfer of resources from production to purely wasted consumption in the mideast, is a prime cause of this. The Bank of Japan cannot provide the increasing funds necessary to soften the impact, for even a few months longer. The American economy will be in freefall this year sometime.