Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL028024.shtml

We examine the trajectory of Arctic summer sea ice in seven projections from the Community Climate System Model and find that abrupt reductions are a common feature of these 21st century simulations. These events have decreasing September ice extent trends that are typically 4 times larger than comparable observed trends. One event exhibits a decrease from 6 million km2 to 2 million km2 in a decade, reaching near ice-free September conditions by 2040. In the simulations, ice retreat accelerates as thinning increases the open water formation efficiency for a given melt rate and the ice-albedo feedback increases shortwave absorption. The retreat is abrupt when ocean heat transport to the Arctic is rapidly increasing. Analysis from multiple climate models and three forcing scenarios indicates that abrupt reductions occur in simulations from over 50% of the models and suggests that reductions in future greenhouse gas emissions moderate the likelihood of these events.

Time is short, and art isn’t looking like a permanent refuge either.Please, if anyone is reading this, I beg you to consider that you may be asleep. WAKE UP!

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Posted by Søren Renner on Tuesday, December 12, 2006 at 01:59 PM in
Comments (3) | Tell a friend

Comments:

Posted by john ray on December 13, 2006, 05:37 AM | #

There was almost no summer ice in the Arctic in the late 20s either. And what a disaster that was! Hardly anybody even noticed.

Posted by Melba Peachtoast on December 13, 2006, 03:08 PM | #

STFU JJR, you are no ornament to our fair isle.

Posted by Fred Scrooby on December 24, 2006, 05:33 PM | #

This book discussion explores the view that whatever global warming may be taking place isn’t due human-caused CO2 emissions.

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