Numbers are of the Essence

MR regulars will have little difficulty in attributing a source to this aphorism, nor in recognising the context in which it was originally placed. We are talking of course about immigration into the UK, a topic never far from the headlines and one which was prominently featured again last month, following the release by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) of its latest statistics on Net Migration.

This article in the Daily Mail was typical, bemoaning the fact that net migration had again increased in the calendar year 2010, that is the final year in office of the Labour Government. This chart from the Mail illustrates the trend:


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Like others, the Mail points to the pre-election proposal of the Conservatives, since (reluctantly) ratified by the Liberal wing of the coalition government, to reduce net migration from its present level of over 200,000 annually to some ‘tens of thousands’ (thus somewhere between 20,000 and 99,999, presumably).

There is widespread scepticism that a reduction on this scale is even feasible. Given that some components of the migrant stream, like asylum seekers and family ‘reunion’, are apparently ‘ring-fenced’ (off limits) for human-rights and other non-economic reasons, and others, like intra-company transfers, are fiercely protected by powerfully-vested economic interests, not to mention the fact that intra-EU migration is, by treaty, also off limits, it is difficult to see how the promised reduction is going to be achieved.

Nevertheless the government appears to be committed to the process at least, if not to a specific eventual outcome, as the recent imposition of an interim cap on employment visas for non-EU migrants seems to confirm. There are mutterings also about capping the number of student visas issued as well, although this will certainly be fiercely contested by the educational establishment which has come to rely upon the exorbitant fees paid by international students to finance many pet projects as well as maintaining the flow of decent claret for the dons’ refectory.

But all this chatter does not really address a key issue: what, exactly, is Net Migration? What does it measure, and is it a reliable indicator of the impact that continuing high levels of immigration are having upon the demographic (i.e. racial) makeup of the population? Commentary is particularly subdued on the latter, not even Migrationwatch UK nor its related organisation Balanced Migration dares to bring this matter into the public gaze, presumably hoping to stay on the right side of the Race Relations Industry and its familiars in the MSM.

It goes without saying that Majority Rights is unconstrained by consideration for such niceties, so it is time for us to take a closer look at Net Migration, and see what it actually entails.

Ostensibly, Net Migration is the simple arithmetic difference between the number of people who arrive in a country, intending to stay for an extended period (by international convention, 12 months or more) and those who leave it. By that simple metric, Britain has been a country of positive net (inward) migration for most of the period since WW II, notwithstanding the millions of native Britons who have emigrated to the ‘Old Commonwealth’, the USA and, more recently, the Mediterranean littoral. In rough round numbers, we can calculate that around 5 million Britons have emigrated since the war, to be replaced by a rather higher number of new immigrants. Had that immigration not occurred, it is likely that the total population would be in the order of 8 million less than the actual total which is to be confirmed by the 2011 Census.

One of the first things we then need to do in order to make any real sense of the Net Migration statistics is to peel out (and discard) the ‘real’ Britons. Their comings and goings are of no relevance to the migration story (as opposed to determining overall population trends), and including them in the Net Migration statistics serves only to confuse and obfuscate, which may actually be the entire point of the exercise. Put quite bluntly, Dave could easily meet his Net Migration ‘pledge’, not by driving immigration down, but rather by making life so unbearable for native Brits that they emigrated in droves - the net result is the same. Needless to say, the official stats don’t make it easy, since they don’t distinguish between real Brits and ‘new Brits’, but there is sufficient data around for us to make at least an educated guess.

Turning to the ONS published report linked above the fold, and burrowing a little deeper into the supporting tables (especially 3.01) we can utilise the figures for country of last and next residence as a proxy for the ethnicity (and race) of the British component in Net Migration. This table is part of a large .zip file which can be downloaded here (select Long Term International Migration 3 series (IPS calendar year)), and provides the following data for calendar year 2010:

• Inflow of British citizens: 93,000
• Outflow of British citizens: 125,000
• Net balance: - 32,000 (outflow)

The fact that more British citizens left than returned has the effect, of course, of reducing Net Migration, but that was not the cause of the underlying political angst about the numbers. From the government’s perspective, the problem is that not enough of them left to compensate for the increased number of third world immigrants, thus causing the headline numbers to trend in the ‘wrong’ direction. Damned inconsiderate of them!

Looking closer at the inflow figures (table 3.01), we see that of the 93,000 total, the overwhelming majority (84%) arrived from the EU, the ‘Old’ (i.e. white) Commonwealth and the USA. Turning to the outflow reveals a similar picture; 76% are heading towards a ‘white’ destination. We can then reasonably assume that the net outflow to ‘non-white’ destinations represents recently naturalised citizens returning to their countries of origin, and it is this figure (9,000) which needs to be subtracted from the total inflow of non-Britons in order to arrive a true picture of Net Migration.

Focusing then on the inflow figures, and removing the impact of the movements of ethnic Britons, the overall figures are as follows:

• Inflow of foreigners: 459,000
• Outflow of foreigners: 187,000 + 9,000
• Net foreigner migration: 263,000

This is the real Net Migration figure for 2010, after adjusting for the movements of ethnic Britons, and represents the total increase in the ‘stock’ of non-Britons for the year (legal immigration only). It is also instructive to break this figure down further in an effort to evaluate the racial components of migration:

• Net Migration from western countries: 80,000
• Net Migration from the third world: 183,000

It’s reasonable to assume that much if not most of the Net Migration from western countries is temporary or cyclical in nature, while that from the third world is likely to be permanent. This supposition is borne out by the Home Office statistics for grants of settlement (i.e. permanent residence, analogous to the US Green Card) and citizenship, which confirm that both statuses are overwhelmingly claimed by migrants from non-western source countries:

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So the next time someone attempts to bamboozle you by claiming that most permanent migrants to Britain are highly-skilled workers - American bankers or Polish plumbers, even - bringing with them skills and capabilities that the locals don’t possess, point them to this page to see for themselves where future ‘Britons’ are actually hailing from.

 

 

 

Posted by Dan Dare on Wednesday, December 28, 2011 at 08:35 PM in
Comments (8) | Tell a friend

Comments:

1

Posted by Leon Haller on December 28, 2011, 11:56 PM | #

Excellent article, informative and well-written - with an exception in the very last line. I did not see anything in the analysis demonstrating that most permanent migrants to Britain are NOT highly skilled workers, only that a not overwhelming majority of them are from the Third World (with possible slight exceptions in SA/Rhodesia, as we don’t know from the data how many of that particular migrant stream are white). [In truth, I did not read any of the html links.]

Correct me if I err, but I thought the UK did put a greater emphasis on skilled migration than at least we in the US do. Maybe some of those Indians, Pakis (more doubtful), Chinese, etc are professionals. Of course, that doesn’t mean they should be admitted. Cultural (which includes racial) compatibility ought to be uppermost among admission considerations, assuming any migration is allowed at all.

Another question I’d like to have answered is what percentage of the admittees from Western nations are themselves white. In this morning’s (12-28) Wall Street Journal, I read a review by a typically brain-challenged libertarian of a new book, Borderless Economics, by yet another neoliberal fanatic. The reviewer quoted from the book about the common practice of circuitous immigration (I forget the exact term used), whereby, eg, Chinese first emigrate to Australia, gain citizenship there solely because it is allegedly easier to emigrate to the US from Oz than China, and then eventually apply to the US as “Australians” (both reviewer and book author thought this an outrageous inconvenience, and wanted the Yellow Hordes to be able to invade California directly, at their pleasure, as it were). I wonder about the race of those 80,000 migrants from Western countries in 2010.

Is it thus fair to say, in rough measure, that the UK is taking in 200,000 nonwhites per year (I assume the 2010 figure is roughly similar to those of the whole Labour reign)? And any estimate of permanently settling illegal aliens?

I find this all totally disturbing. Even from a deracinated commercial perspective, does the UK actually need any migrants?

2

Posted by Papa Luigi on December 29, 2011, 01:32 AM | #

Leon Haller on December 28, 2011, 11:56 PM

Excellent article, informative and well-written - with an exception in the very last line. I did not see anything in the analysis demonstrating that most permanent migrants to Britain are NOT highly skilled workers, only that a not overwhelming majority of them are from the Third World ...

Hi Leon, if you lived in the UK you would be aware of the fact that the overwhelming majority of Third World immigrants are unskilled. I can appreciate why it would be nice to present an argument leaving no room for our opponents to prevaricate , but published official statistics in the UK are deliberately formulated in such a way as to make analysis such as Dan dare have provided almost impossible and sometimes certain self-evident facts have to be accepted as a ‘given’.

Correct me if I err, but I thought the UK did put a greater emphasis on skilled migration than at least we in the US do.

No Leon, sadly that is a fallacy perpetuated by our corrupt media/government. In reality, the UK has open borders.

Maybe some of those Indians, Pakis (more doubtful), Chinese, etc are professionals. Of course, that doesn’t mean they should be admitted ...

A very small proportion are, but there are no checks on their ability to speak English and non-White doctors feature disproportionately in terms of their culpability in professional negligence cases and the incidence of sexual offences committed by male health professionals against White female patients.

Another question I’d like to have answered is what percentage of the admittees from Western nations are themselves white.

Now that is a very pertinent question Leon, ‘circuitous immigration’, as you call it is evidently taking place in a significant number of cases.

Is it thus fair to say, in rough measure, that the UK is taking in 200,000 nonwhites per year (I assume the 2010 figure is roughly similar to those of the whole Labour reign)? ,

Correct!

I find this all totally disturbing. Even from a deracinated commercial perspective, does the UK actually need any migrants?

No, the UK does not need any migrants. The ones that are highlighted by the liberal establishment as examples of the skilled workers that we ‘need’ are invariably doctors, nurses and IT professionals, however every year tens of thousands of newly qualified doctors and nurses of indigenous British origin are forced to emigrate to Australia and the US to find work, because all of the vacancies for their profession in the UK have been taken by immigrants prepared to work for lower salaries. Furthermore, unemployment amongst indigenous British IT workers is widespread.

The clincher as far as all these issues surrounding immigration are concerned, is that of all the instances of blunders and mistakes that routinely take place, where mistakes or omissions are made by the UK Border Agency and the like, such errors and omissions almost invariably have the effect of letting massively more immigrants into the country than should otherwise have legally been admitted.

If these ‘errors and omissions’ were genuine ‘errors and omissions’, then a reasonable proportion of them at least would have had the effect of wrongfully preventing some ‘deserving’ immigrants from settling in this country, but ‘errors and omissions’ of this sort are incredibly rare, and on the very, very rare occasions when they do occur, the obstruction is quickly removed and the ‘victim’ generously compensated at public expense, but no one ever suggests that we should send back the tens of thousands of those that have wrongfully gained admission to the UK as a result of mistakes in the immigrants’ favour.

What this shows is that the complete incompetence of the UK Border Agency is not an accident. A previous Labour Home Affairs Minister reluctantly described the UK Border Agency as ‘unfit for purpose’, but no one has since set about rectifying the situation and while all sorts of measures are periodically announced by government supposedly with the intention of reducing immigration, there are always gaping holes in the legislation concerned such that it is ineffectual, and the numbers of immigrants both legal and illegal continues to rise un-abated.

3

Posted by Leon Haller on December 29, 2011, 02:21 AM | #

Papa Luigi,

Thanks for the response. I think the crux is this:

What this shows is that the complete incompetence of the UK Border Agency is not an accident. (PL)

I used to think that the catastrophe in the USA was really an (as it’s been called) “accidental revolution” (ie, in demographics). There may even have been some truth to this description at the beginning of the rev. I continue not to believe that all of the Congressmen who voted for the Immigration and Nationality Act Amendments of 1965 actively wanted to transform the USA into a nonwhite country. Certainly, they were sold on the changes with very explicit guarantees (those making them might well have been disingenuous) that the changes would not result in “millions {nb: if only millions!} of Asians and Africans flooding the country”. And I suppose that most voting aye really did have no conception of the sort of demographic revolution they were launching (though there were some Congressmen, like the great Sam Ervin, who did perceive and call attention to the potential threat).

But clearly, at some point along this particular road to Hell (eg, by the 1980 census, at the latest, when whites were still revealed to be slightly under 84% of the population, albeit falling rapidly), it became obvious what was going on. By that time, many conservatives just were too cowardly about broaching the issue, or at best indifferent, being still obsessed with anti-communism, and restoring free-market economic growth (although already by 1980 I recall my parents and extended family and their adult friends repeatedly denouncing continued immigration; in fairness, however, even in early 1986, when I mentioned immigration as an issue at a Young Republicans dinner at my elite East Coast university, it was largely brushed off as constituting a “local, California issue”, despite my vociferous arguments to the contrary).

More sinisterly, it seems clear in retrospect that, over time, many powerful persons specifically wanted (and still do) to turn white Americans into a (persecuted?) minority. Over the decades, I have actually wondered whether the same was true for Europe - that all the happy “diversity” or “human rights” talk wasn’t just standard liberal do-gooderism or general naivete, but a mask behind which were hiding genuine traitors or internal subversives who likewise actually wanted to transform normal, traditional European nations into fissiparous, dangerous, disunited, and simply alien ones. And yet, whenever I thought that, I, until recently, actually dismissed myself as over-paranoid. No, I kept correcting myself, the diversitycrats are not actual traitors, at least not in intent, but merely fools. They want immigration to be easy because they feel sorry for the asylees, and believe their hard luck stories - not because they actually want to shove diversity down the throats of whites and make us have to ‘negotiate’ it.

I now find myself believing my darkest suspicions of yore. There were persons in positions of power or influence who actively wanted to destroy white civilization, and who saw in demographic inundation a method for doing so, especially after communism’s demise (though they were pushing the race-replacement agenda long before the fall of the Wall). Such persons are most certainly deserving of capital punishment. 

 

4

Posted by Dirty Bull on December 29, 2011, 04:23 AM | #

The trouble is that the identity ‘British’ ha been so devalued and debased over the yeras that it means nothing.Any brown faced, black haired paki with a passport to wave calls himself and is called by the government ‘British’.
The term ‘English’ to describe nationality is catching on.‘English’ has the connotation of racial bloodline and phenotype - it will be hard to transduce its meaning.

5

Posted by Leon Haller on December 29, 2011, 04:33 AM | #

But let us hope an English nationalism will be a blood-and-soil ethnonationalism (I prefer WN, but would be very happy with vibrant ethnonationalisms across Europe), and not some variant of contemporary Scottish nationalism - a way for patriotic Englishmen to say “up yours” to Scottish nationalists, or those attached to the UK, but which otherwise does nothing about the racial problem, the real problem.

6

Posted by Dan Dare on December 29, 2011, 03:47 PM | #

The ultimate UKBA cock-up is without question the handling of the 450,000 ‘legacy cases’, files pertaining to asylum seekers whose cases had not been resolved before being dumped in a Croydon warehouse and ‘rediscovered’ in 2006. We have have discussed this previously here and here.

Coincidentally, I was trawling the proceedings of the Home Affairs Committee yesterday and came across evidence presented by the then-acting head* of UKBA as to the present status of this grand fiasco. It seems that the current state of play is as follows:

• 37,500 (7%) have been deported

• 172,000 (34%) have been given permission to stay, with a further 3,000 are awaiting final security checks

• 170,000 cases (34%) have some other conclusion, either a duplicate file, ‘database errors’, applicant now EU citizen, etc

• 98,500 (19%) reside in the ‘controlled archive’ for applicants who are now untraceable

• 18,000 (4%) remain to be resolved

Attentive readers will note that totalling the above gives a total of 505,500 cases, not 450,000, and that over 90% of the cases have resulted in the applicants receiving permission to stay, or simply quietly forgotten about and allowed to disappear into the undergrowth without further bureaucratic hindrance.

*The preceding Head of UKBA (a Ms Lin Homer), who presided over the fiasco in its formative stages was a career apparatchik who has since been promoted to the position of Permanent Undersecretary at the Department of Transportation. Just reward for a job well done, in the best Whitehall tradition! Sir Humphrey would be proud.

7

Posted by Dan Dare on December 29, 2011, 04:43 PM | #

Papa Luigi has responded to Leon Haller’s comments much as I would have done, but I would like to emphasise the general point that the official statistics do not facilitate the separation of the various migrant streams into their ethnic and racial components with mathematical precision (no doubt by design) so we have to resort to educated guesswork, in this particular instance by separating source and destination countries by their likely ethno-racial make-up.

It’s certainly the case that some migrants from Southern Africa will be white rather than black, and some from America may be black rather than white, but in the aggregate I suspect that these anomalies will tend to balance each other out.

As for Leon’s final point:

... does the UK actually need any migrants?

Certainly not on the scale that it has happened, nor of the type who have been admitted. That said, I think there is a case to be made for migration on a limited scale between developed countries of broadly similar socio-economic standing and with a common or shared cultural background, especially if there are genuine local shortages of particular skills or capabilities that such migrants might contribute.

Returning kith and kin fleeing pestholes like Zimbabwe should of course be permitted automatic free entry and not required to queue up as supplicants as if they were common-or-garden Africans.

8

Posted by Dan Dare on March 01, 2012, 02:51 PM | #

Earlier this week an http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/23/net-migration-britain-record-levels ]article[/url] in the Guardian reported that the coalition government’s ‘hopes of reducing net migration into Britain to below 100,000 have suffered a fresh blow’, with net migration actually rising from 235,000 to 250,000 during its first year in office. The principal reason is that, although immigration itself has remained stable, emigration has fallen, hence the rise in the figures for net migration.

As I argued above, the focus on headline figures for net migration is irrelevant for those among us who are concerned with the racial aspects of the ongoing demographic transformation. It is the net migration of foreigners, and particularly of third-worlders, which is of prime concern. As long as emigration is factored into the equation the net migration statistics will always lead to an impression that the third world influx is smaller than it is, simply because indigenous Britons (as opposed to “New Brits”) form by far the largest component of the emigration numbers.

As it happens, the Guardian article links to a recent report by the IPPR which helpfully encapsulates this notion in a single chart.


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In this we see quite clearly that emigration (consisting principally of native Brits) has remained relatively stable since the early 90s (trending gently upwards as more Brits seek retirement in the sun), and it is the net inflow of foreigners which has increased dramatically over the period. Once again, it is important not to fall for the ‘net migration’ shell-game but to keep hammering at at the real issue: IMMIGRATION.

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