Ron Paul Campaign Predicted in 1982—Now: Blind Poll Canvassing

(Click here for the audio reading of this story.)

Now Is the Time

From 1982 (when “videotext network” was used to describe the mass-availability of computer networking):

“...the prophecies of a despotic, “cashless-society” are quite likely to become a reality.  My opinion is that this nightmare will eventually be realized but not before the American pioneers have had a chance to reach each other and organize.  I base this hope on the fact that the first people to participate in the videotex network will represent some of the most pioneering of Americans, since videotex is a new “territory”.”

Now is the time.

If my ability in 1982, to predict the Internet-based Ron Paul phenomenon, counts for anything today, then let it count for this:

Blind Poll Canvassing

The Ron Paul campaign must focus on a strategy of “blind poll canvassing” to efficiently utilize its greatest strength:  dedicated volunteers.

This can be accomplished in 3 steps:

1. Construct a scientifically unbiased and efficient political questionnaire.  (See “Construction of Scientifically Unbiased Efficient Political Survey” below)
2. Put the candidates through the questionnaire.
3. Ask Ron Paul volunteers to canvass the general voting public with the questionnaire, informing potential Ron Paul supporters—thereby identified—why they are likely Ron Paul supporters and offering to help them vote in the primary.

The Rationale for Blind Poll Canvassing
The news that in Zogby’s “blind poll” Ron Paul won with general voters but lost with “likely Republican voters” points the way to a new strategy to get the nomination:

Blind Poll Canvassing

What this means is construct a scientifically unbiased blind poll (see below) and use it to conduct phone canvassing of general voters to see which of them would be likely to vote Republican if they knew the positions of the candidates. This combines a scientific blind poll with phone canvassing to “get out the vote”.

Let’s first note a point about the Zogby poll for how not to do a blind poll:

Since likely Republican voters are known by pollsters to care more about immigration than the war, Zogby’s omission of immigration from the candidates’ positions must be taken to mean Zogby doesn’t have the first idea about constructing unbiased blind polls.

Moreover, the astounding performance of Ron Paul among general voters isn’t at all surprising to those who follow the prediction markets like intrade.com where people put their money where their mouths are.

Ron Paul has been leading the entire GOP pack in the likelihood of being elected president, if nominated, according to the professional gamblers.

How can we construct an unbiased blind poll which, with as few questions as practical so as to efficiently use volunteer and voter phone time, identifies voters likely to vote for Ron Paul in the primary if they were fully informed, and use it to turn potential votes for Ron Paul in the general election into actual votes for Ron Paul in the primary?

Construction of Scientifically Unbiased Efficient Political Survey

The two requirements of the blind poll questionnaire are that it be “scientifically unbiased” and “efficient” so that phone time is minimized.  What this means is that the questionnaire must contain few questions that get right to the heart of the political zeitgeist.  With all the money invested in social and political science research, we are entitled to expect that such a questionnaire already exists.  The problem is that, like most “entitlements” these days, they seem to have fallen into the wrong hands.

So we have to achieve, in days, what social and political scientists with the power of Western Civilization’s academe failed to do in decades.

It is possible by setting up a tournament with a nonrefundable entry fee of $X, awarding a first prize of $Y*8, second prize of $Y*4, third prize of $Y*2, and fourth prize of $Y, where X is sufficient to deter casual players from participating and Y is sufficient to motivate most serious “experts”.  The daily elimination rounds are conducted as follows:

1. Each contestant submits a new questionnaire of 5 multiple choice questions they think are most informative.
2. Judges disqualify contestants who submit frivolous or abusive questions, along with their questionnaires.
3. The questionnaires are made available to the contestants.
4. A phone survey is run using canvassing volunteers during which each questionnaire, along with 5 questions selected at random from among the other questionnaires,  is asked of at least one potential voter.
5. Each contestant receives the responses to their questionnaires and the additional questions, but not the responses to those questions.
6. Each contestant then tries to guess the responses they were not given, scoring one point for each response they get correct.
7. The contestants scoring in the upper half return for the next round and all are provided all questions and responses given by all potential voters.

Since the questionnaire is provably unbiased, it can be paid for through a 501c3 non-profit which can, unlike the political campaign, receive unlimited contributions from around the world, including donations of time from Ron Paul volunteers who would perform phone surveys, as well as money from the Ron Paul campaign itself, which would spend money much more wisely on this strategy than an equivalent investment in mass media advertising.

Since the pruning is exponential, decreasing contestants by 1/2 every day, there can be a large number of contestants and a large number of questions winnowed down in days.

Posted by James Bowery on Friday, November 23, 2007 at 02:59 PM in
Comments (10) | Tell a friend

Comments:

Next entry: A gift from Xenia

Previous entry: The death of a multi-racialist