Some population news in brief

No hope for Europe: “The fertility rates in the western industrialized countries are well below the replacement rate of 2.1 babies per woman. For the European Union as a whole, the estimated 2005 fertility rate was 1.47 babies per woman. In some countries, the rate is even lower. However, in France, approximately one birth in three is to a Muslim family. Stripped of the Muslim influence, the fertility rate of the native-born or traditionally European French would be 1.2, similar to the rates in Italy and Spain.”

Immigration of little benefit to Australia: “An abiding and unshakeable belief of Australian business is that immigration is good for the economy and we need a lot more of it than we’re getting. But is the belief soundly based? According to a Productivity Commission paper on Economic Impacts of Migration and Population Growth, not really. The economic benefits are “very small”.”

Posted by jonjayray on Saturday, February 4, 2006 at 08:53 AM in Demographics
Comments (3) | Tell a friend

Comments:

Posted by Matra on February 04, 2006, 07:00 PM | #

No hope for Europe

There’s a bit of a baby boom going on in France right now. And, no, it’s not just Muslims. There’s plenty of hope for Europe, especially if the Muslims continue overplay their hand and provoke a real backlash. If they were smart they would lay low the way Albanians did in Kosovo and are doing in Macedonia until they are in a stronger position.

Posted by John S Bolton on February 05, 2006, 06:15 AM | #

I don’t think one would say that there is no hope for Japan, S Korea or Taiwan, because their birthrates are at similarly low levels. therefore, immigration is the relevant factor, not birth rates.
Immigration into a welfare state is not going to generate net benefit to the net taxpayer. They must have fudged, by not counting some classes of net public subsidy to immigrants.

Posted by John S Bolton on February 05, 2006, 06:32 AM | #

The estimate assumes a large number of immigrants, who are above the average of the citizenry. It says nothing about any actual immigration cohort, which has included relatives, refugees, etc. It is a projection of the future, but an unlikely one. A small number of immigrants who are far above the citizens’ average might generate net economic benefit. The article also claims that asian students recruited for Australian universities pay full rate.
This sounds so unlikely though, aren’t all students at public universities subsidized, even if they pay ‘full rate’?
Your officials may want to squeeze from above and below, in order to, all the more efficiently, get a reaction, from which despotic power will flow. This is politics; it is about aggression, stealing from one to give to another, until the victim cries out, threatening hostilities.

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