The Bear’s Lair: An agenda for 2008’s Democrats

Posted by Geoff Beck on September 26, 2005, 09:17 AM | #

> It’s increasingly likely that an unpopular war and a teetering economy will bring Republican House and Senate losses in 2006

Yet, the Democrats are so inept. The only Democrats in opposition to the war are mostly fringe Blacks, like Conyers and McKinney.

I loath both parties, but the Democrats are so inept and overtly anti Middle American I can’t see how they can make any progress in 2006. But then again, Lemmings will do what they are told to do.

Yet, for 2008 and beyond I see outright doom for the Republicans because of demographics.

Posted by Phil on September 26, 2005, 04:54 PM | #

Martin,

How bad will the next recession be? Will it be the worst recession in decades?

We have a combination of easy money, over-inflated real estate prices and a coming energy crunch. It could be pretty bad…..

Posted by Martin Hutchinson on September 26, 2005, 07:09 PM | #

I’ve been expecting something like the 70s, but more recession and less inflation, for some time now.  How deep it gets depends very much on how well they manage when they figure out it’s happening (the Great Depression was the result of an ASPPALLING series of policy blunders; it need not have been nearly so bad, and wasn’t in Britain.)

Given the IQ and financial sophistication of the present lot, I’m not hopeful. I think the greater danger may be a 15 year recession like Japan had, rather than a bottomless pit, however. I certainly don’t see “Morning in America” any time soon; intermittent but persistent downslide till 2008-9, adequate management (on the lines above) in 2009-10 and slow recovery thereafter is about the best we can hope for.

Posted by Geoff Beck on September 26, 2005, 07:48 PM | #

Martin,

Any guesses on the price of gold?

Posted by Martin Hutchinson on September 26, 2005, 08:15 PM | #

Still on the way up; peak depends on the Fed’s trajectory from here on.  Given the Fed is raising rates slower than inflation is rising, it could go to $1,000. But COULD, not WILL.

Posted by Fred Scrooby on September 26, 2005, 11:10 PM | #

Martin, have you any thoughts on purchasing gold coins as Geoff discussed here some months back?  My impression always was that wasn’t the right way to go about purchasing gold.

Posted by Geoff Beck on September 26, 2005, 11:13 PM | #

WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told France’s Finance Minister Thierry Breton the United States has “lost control” of its budget deficit, the French minister said on Saturday.

Reuters

Posted by Fred Scrooby on September 26, 2005, 11:23 PM | #

Geoff, yeah, I saw that headline also.  It actually scared me. 

Hey isn’t Bush just a wonderful president?  Gotta be one of the best this country’s ever had!

Posted by Martin Hutchinson on September 27, 2005, 08:04 AM | #

They had a poll of historians the other week, balanced between GOP and DEM, in which Bush was ranged about #18 out of 43 while Reagan, who was “below average” in the 1988 poll, was up to No. 5 or 6. My own view is that the view of Bush will change, and that by 2030 he will be about #42 out of 46.

Harvard Business School is telling everybody not to worry that it’s slipping down the rankings, it’s the positions held by its graduates that matters.  Talk about a self-defeating strategy; they will NOT be getting top talent in 2050 for having educated the 21st century’s Millard Fillmore.

Gold coins are tricky, because you get ripped off when you sell them. Citibank used to have a “gold certificates” program in which I invested in the 80s (not much, and not very successfully—as we can now see, I got the cycle wrong, though it was 85-88, so I broke even.)If you do buy gold coins, make sure the premium over bullion value is 10% or less. Otherwise, you could probably do worse than gold futures (which have the advantage of always being quoted in the WSJ so you can sell them) though futures make me nervous in general. It’s a tricky problem.

Posted by Steve Edwards on September 27, 2005, 11:34 AM | #

Bush is a wonderful president, isn’t he? WONDERFUL!1!1! Can anyone name a single policy area where he hasn’t acted tirelessly to advance the interests of Americans? Not me!

You are so blessed to have such a committed, faithful, honest, God-fearing president in the White House!