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The Bear’s Lair: The Kamikaze economySince 2002, indeed to some extent since 1995, the U.S. economy has been managed on Kamikaze principles. Long term goals and traditional prudential controls have been sacrificed in order to keep the stock and housing bubbles inflated. In this traditionally tricky month of October, it appears that the kamikaze approach to economics may no longer be working, and collapse may be near. For more, please link below to the “Great Conservatives” website: http://www.greatconservatives.com/pages/6/index.htm Posted by karlmagnus on Monday, October 10, 2005 at 11:09 AM in Economics & Finance Comments:2
Posted by Geoff Beck on October 10, 2005, 09:54 PM | # John, You may find this interesting: How A US Currency Crisis Can Unfold 3
Posted by Martin Hutchinson on October 11, 2005, 08:58 AM | # With good policy and reasonable luck, I see only a somewhat nastier version of the 1970s, with much of the necessary real estate deflation happening by inflating everything else, unlike in Japan 1990-2003 where they had actual deflation. However, with money, budget, currency and asset price crises all due, it’s certainly possible that a nasty combination of several at once will push the US into a Biblical crisis, or at least a 1932-3. It will not be helped by the actions of government, which I do not currently rate highly. Indeed as with Hoover and FDR (the former more than the latter, though Glass-Steagall was a BIG mistake, since it closed the capital market) there has to be a good chance that an inept government makes matters very much worse. The post-1929 crash would have been a nasty few years whatever happened, but it certainly didn’t need to produce 25% unemployment or last a decade. Next entry: An amazing snippet of history Previous entry: Citizens of what? Pacifia? |
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Posted by john rackell on October 10, 2005, 12:26 PM | #
Could the catastrophe become systemic in some sense - if I understand what you’re saying, OK, there’ll be bankruptcies, foreclosures and defaults but the system itself hangs together - do you see the chance of systemic collapse - either all settlements etc come to a grinding halt, because of daisy chain bankruptcies - depression - or the authorities just print money to keep the grease in the machine - hyperinflation? Will it only be a flood or do you see a biblical flood in your heart of hearts? Do you give any credence to the debt-trap dynamics scenario (sort of vulgar name dropping here on my part but) - the net interest on our debt obligations pushing us into an Argentine like collapse -basically, I guess the entire country officially declares itself bankrupt vs just assorted individuals going bankrupt.
I guess I should watch more Kudlow and be happy.