The Bear’s Lair: When labor becomes a commodity

Posted by Guest Blogger on Tuesday, 13 April 2010 23:06.

by Martin Hutchinson

The extraordinary rise in commodity prices, at the beginning of a global cyclical upswing, is beginning to reorder the pecking order of the world economy. Together with the advances made by China and India in the last decade, it is producing an entirely new world order, which many will find uncomfortable. In it, commodities, derided for decades as unimportant, have become scarce resources, to be guarded and managed with the utmost care. Conversely human labor and skill, on the basis of which the glories of human civilization were built, is entering into a state of gigantic glut.

The current commodities boom is qualitatively different from those of the past. In previous commodities booms, such as those of 1972-73 or 2006-08, the global economy was operating close to capacity, and indeed the boom was an important indicator that full capacity was about to be reached. The booms were accompanied by wage inflation and in both cases resulted in price inflation, although in 2007-08 the price inflation was aborted by the financial crash before it could really get hold.

This time, a commodities boom is occurring while the global economy is still far from full capacity and unemployment worldwide remains high. There are two reasons for this. First, a number of governments have engaged in irresponsible fiscal “stimulus,” running budget deficits unprecedented in peacetime. This has tended to prop up demand for the kinds of commodities that are used in infrastructure, especially iron ore and copper – think for example of China’s $100 billion railroad building program. Second, Chinese and Indian demand, which did no more than dip for a few months in 2008-09 before rebounding strongly, has driven up the global consumption of commodities to unprecedented levels. 1.3 billion Chinese, each with less than one fourth of the consumption propensity of each of 300 million Americans or 400 million Europeans, nevertheless between them consume a lot more materials in their expenditure, because their consumption mix is more oriented towards foods and physically bulky goods. With the Chinese automobile market now exceeding the US one in terms of units sold, it’s not surprising that Chinese steel consumption has soared.

What has not yet been fully realized is that this change is likely to be more or less permanent. We had grown used in the last half century to a world in which only about 700 million of the world’s 6.8 billion inhabitants enjoyed Western living standards, with automobiles and home appliances ubiquitous. In such a world, with extraction techniques ever improving, energy prices rose only slowly in real terms, while minerals prices actually declined. Now, with consumer demand growing at 6-10% annually among 2.5 billion consumers, the upward trend in energy and minerals usage has become much more rapid than we were used to.

We are not about to run out of either energy or minerals. Oil sands, viable at $40 per barrel, contain at least double the conventional reserves of petroleum and most metals are even further from supply exhaustion, provided the price is high enough. However there will be continual pressure on supplies, as there are not only limits to physical supply but also on how quickly output can be ramped up by bringing new supplies online. The gigantic Tupi oil fields in Brazil, for example, will come on stream only around 2013, six years after their discovery, while the lead time for tar sands oil production is at least as long, particularly given the agonizing environmental hoops new projects must jump through.

The excessive global monetary ease of the last decade has contributed to the secular change in commodities’ position, but is not solely responsible for it. Easy money encouraged speculators and made the transition to emerging markets manufacturing happen more quickly than would have been natural. However that transition, which has been the primary cause of the upsurge in Chinese and Indian commodities demand, was far more directly the result of the Internet and modern communications than of monetary policy alone. Likewise, the current upwards blip in demand has been caused as much by fiscal as by monetary excess. Conversely the inevitable tightening in global monetary policy, which in any case may only get serious 18-24 months from now, will not return commodities prices to their historic levels, even though the immediate bubble will burst. In 2020, if the world economy is in a healthy state, it will have much higher commodities prices, in terms of purchasing power, than in 2005.

The secular change in commodities prices has immense geopolitical consequences. The decline of Europe will accelerate, as most EU countries lack commodities wealth, have a surplus of labor, and will incur vast debts in the attempt to prop up living standards that are no longer viable. Canada and Australia will prosper, becoming richer than the United States, as their commodities endowment is comparable with the US and their populations very much less. The decently run parts of Latin America and Africa will flourish, as their commodities wealth allows them to improve living standards. However the majority of those continents will remain mired in socialist kleptocracy, as their commodities wealth is siphoned off by corrupt politicians or wasted in hopelessly counterproductive welfare and subsidy schemes.

The corollary of the geopolitical growth of the commodities-rich will be the geopolitical decline of the commodities-impoverished. Japan’s relative economic decline has been ubiquitously commented on, but one factor that has not been noted is that its demographic decline is entirely appropriate and indeed beneficial given its commodity-impoverished status.

Indeed, it is notable that the rich countries with very low fertility rates such as Japan, South Korea and Italy are also those with especially poor commodity endowments. An eighteenth century writer would have used this as a demonstration of the workings of Divine Providence; in secular 2010 I can only comment that it’s a very odd coincidence indeed.

However it’s not only the slow-growing rich countries that will suffer from the elevation of commodities prices: popular success stories such as China and India, with huge populations but only moderately large commodity endowments, will find their continued success much more difficult to achieve. That makes sense; if Chinese and Indian emergence into economic takeoff has warped the entire global economic fabric into a new shape, then it makes sense that such warping would exert a significant restraint upon those nations’ economic growth.

Needless to say, the worst affected countries will be those poor countries with very large, dense populations and few commodity resources. Bangladesh certainly qualifies, but so do such countries as Kenya and Nigeria, traditionally thought to be well endowed with commodities, but whose excessive population growth has outrun their commodities endowment, condemning them to continuing impoverishment and misery.

Overall, rapid economic development has thrust commodities from a position of glut into a position of relative scarcity. Conversely, the emergence of modern telecoms, the globalization of markets and the increasing wealth and education levels of billions in China, India and elsewhere, has transferred human labor, even skilled human labor, from a position of relative scarcity into a position of glut. That’s not surprising – when the number of full participants in the global economy quadruples from 700 million to 3 billion over a period of less than 20 years, those participants are likely to face an over-supply problem. It’s also not unusual – as Thomas Malthus would have told you in 1798, the periods when human labor is worth more than bare subsistence have historically been few and far between.

This glut does not merely apply to the unskilled; with India graduating 350,000 engineers per annum it applies to all but the most highly-skilled workers and you can see the effects of it everywhere. Only a few highly cartelized occupations such as legal work, which can keep out foreign competition through regulation, or investment banking, which can design new financial products to increase its “rents” extracted from the system, are immune to the immiseration produced by global competition.

In Europe, rates of unemployment among those under 30 have been running around 20% for a decade. Contrary to media opinion, those young people’s educations are not markedly inferior to their predecessors’ and their adaptability to the demands of today’s labor market is significantly greater. However, in societies where the costs of laying off experienced workers is great, both financially and in terms of public esteem, and wage and benefit rates are sticky, the new global competition from workers based in India and China is reflected in young workers’ inability to move into steady employment.

High immigration worsens this problem, since it provides direct competitive pressure on European youth from well qualified, cheaper labor within the system, as well as indirect competition from manufacturers abroad. Moderate immigration increases the skills diversification of a wealthy country without unduly impoverishing its people, but high immigration, whether skilled or unskilled, legal or illegal, impoverishes more than it diversifies.

The solution is not to erect trade barriers, artificially balkanizing the global market. That would reduce global wealth still further, impoverishing everybody in the long run. In any case with commodities now scarce the low-endowment “wealthy” countries no longer have the political or economic power to impose unilateral barriers effectively.

In summary, in today’s world commodities have become scarce and labor has become commoditized, unless fenced in by artificial restraints. With the global supply of commodities finite, this problem can only worsen if population is allowed to continue growing. A world with 10 billion people, all able to compete on an equal basis in a globalized labor market and desiring commodity-intensive modern mechanical marvels, would be a world of ever-increasing scarcity and impoverishment, besides its adverse environmental effects.

Hence population reduction programs, aiming to reduce global population to a level at which labor once more becomes more valuable than commodities, should be given the highest priority at a global level. Otherwise, with the labor supply unlimited and the skills supply nearly so, and commodities supply relatively restricted, the only wealthy people will be those who own mines or oil wells.

An edited version was originally published on the http://www.prudentbear.com/. Martin Hutchinson is the author of Great Conservatives (Academica Press, 2005).

Tags: Globalisation

Comments:

Posted by James Bowery on Tue, 13 Apr 2010 23:29 | #

Hutchison writes: “It’s also not unusual – as Thomas Malthus would have told you in 1798, the periods when human labor is worth more than bare subsistence have historically been few and far between.”

However, the emerging situation isn’t Malthusian when one looks at what is actually causing depopulation:

Erocide.

Ethnic elites used to profiting from harvesting rural females for sale back in cities have, by motion picture technology, received so much power that they have managed to not only create a dysgenic situation where the most beautiful and intelligent women are harvested for lives as urban concubines—they have made it impossible to replace those females even with inferior breeds by raising the cost of reproduction to the point that even in the richest countries women cannot have replacement children because their sociobiological environment stigmatizes the men with whom they might raise children as unworthy of reproduction. “The Alpha of State” has become the Head of Household, leaving vast populations sterilized.

Outside of manifestly patriarchal cultures like Orthodox Jewery, Islam and some African tribes, the ethnies escaping this are seen by their women as not submitting to “The Alpha of State”—usually by being an immigrant to a foreign land and defecting, with the associated payoffs, from the culture to which they have immigrated.

Hutchison further misperceives the situation: “The solution is not to erect trade barriers, artificially balkanizing the global market. That would reduce global wealth still further, impoverishing everybody in the long run. In any case with commodities now scarce the low-endowment “wealthy” countries no longer have the political or economic power to impose unilateral barriers effectively.”

Ha!

So long as “lawmakers”, “thought leaders” and the rest of the scum influencing direction continue to justify the collection of economic rents by the private wealth and public bureaucracies, rather than distributing them to the population without prejudice, we will continue to crush the potential creativity of Euroman. Unleashed—primarily from low sociosexual status—that creativity would solve the commodity problem very rapidly. That is where Islam may blind-side Western elites and demonstrate the abject intellectual, moral and ethical bankruptcy of those elites. China may be able to intercede for a while, but they are ultimately doomed by their inability to impose patriarchy—with the resulting degeneration into the “Alpha of State” failure mode. India? Well they have already hollowed out the managerial class here but removed from their patriarchal culture, don’t have a clue how to deal with Islam’s winning strategy.

All things considered, Western elites are Islamic agents.

Posted by Grimoire on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 05:21 | #

good eye!

Posted by Lurker on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 07:39 | #

I found Bowery’s comment really thought provoking, and that it opens up one’s thinking in an entirely new direction. The sad part (for me) is that I was not able to figure out much of its meaning!

Can you elaborate on your comment, Mr. Bowery?

Posted by Jesse on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 08:02 | #

I second Lurker’s request.

Mr. Bowery has laid out many intriguing ideas, but I’m not sure if I’ve fully comprehended them.

Any further elaboration would be greatly appreciated.

Posted by Eddie Booth on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 09:00 | #

Hutchinson’s big mistakes are to entirely ignore nationalism and ethnic genetic interest.
Basically the story of the ‘commodity surge’ and ‘labor glut’ is the story of China’s rise.India and the rest are also-rans which should be ignored by all those with wisdom.
The crux of China’s rise to pre=eminence is purely and simply nationalism.The booming economy is cedntrally planned (with the hearty consent of the Chinese people), for one end and one end only - to give the average Chinese a ‘western’ standard of living, and it has worked and will work further.Apart from this overriding nationalist/EGI consideration the Chinese couldn’t give a damn about anyone or anything else. A point that Hutchinson and the entire western political class seem blind to.

Posted by Fred Scrooby on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 12:58 | #

“Hutchinson’s big mistakes are to entirely ignore nationalism and ethnic genetic interest.” (—Eddie Booth)

Agreed and I have felt this for a long time but never wished to come out and say it. I’m glad someone has. To agree to ignore the decisive, profound effects of inborn race differences and nationalism on the whole field of economics may be “politically” necessary in certain professions but takes away the ability to get to the bottom of things, the ability to state a big part of the real reason certain things in economics happen, huge things, condemning the ignorer to dabble forever in what really are relative superficialities however complex-sounding the specialized financial-world jargon which he may toss around with such ease. Ignore inborn differences of racial characteristics and it’s all hot air, I don’t care how technical it all sounds. I don’t doubt there are professionals who, knowing or at least sensing as much, welcome the coming of racially mixed populations so they’ll no longer feel embarrassed or dishonest — the race dimension will have been taken out of things. Ahh but it won’t have been: look at racially mixed places like Brazil and Mexico: there the socio-economic classes separate out on the basis of how white one is. So you still can’t get away from it.

This is of course a criticism not only of Hutchinson. It’s true of virtually the entire economics/financial-analyst profession.

Posted by Gudmund on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 14:42 | #

Erocide.
>JAmes Bowery

True, and the magnitude of this phenomenon is really only beginning to be exposed in our circles. The relations between white men and women have been thoroughly demolished, that’s the real reason for the depopulation. And it won’t end, I think, until the perverse third party preventing things from returning to normal (“Alpha of State”) is itself somehow checked, because good luck on hoping the elites will come to their senses.

How do you propose to check it?

the Chinese couldn’t give a damn about anyone or anything else.
>Eddie Booth

Exactly, I’ve never understood the adulation the Chinese receive, aside from high mean IQ there is little to recommend them. Just look at how thoroughly they’ve degraded their environment (and this from a group with supposedly high future time preference!). They view all outsiders as contemptible barbarians and our role in their rise to prominence can thus be viewed as a form of insanity.

Posted by James Bowery on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 17:08 | #

Lurker writes: “Can you elaborate on your comment, Mr. Bowery?”

And Jesse seconds: “Any further elaboration would be greatly appreciated.”

It’s hard to know where to start. I wrote a book 15 years ago titled “Escape from Erocide” laying out my perception of the situation. It remains unpublished because I felt unsatisfied with the content particularly given the critical nature of the subject matter. More recently the developing ideas have been scattered throughout my writings here—to some extent condensed into the system dynamics diagram linked to in the article First Model of Euroman’s Ethnosexual Dynamics.

Maybe a few definitions would help start dialog by providing language:

Patriarchy: A cornerstone of sustainable civilization wherein the primordial group—the nuclear family—is rendered stable by the civil authorities deliberately portraying, through any means necessary, the male of the heterosexual pair bond as worthy of reproduction in the female’s eyes and the male is provide sufficient paternal certainty and resources to honor his role as sovereign to his family.

Civilization: A social organization characterized by the formation of cities—being organisms consisting of humans as dependent parts of the whole. This is reflected by Socrates in his statement about the natural history of the “state”: “It is evident that the state is a creation of nature, and that man is by nature a political animal… The proof that the state is a creation of nature and prior to the individual is that the individual, when isolated, is not self-sufficient; and therefore he is like a part in relation to the whole.” (Note that this sort of dependence is qualitatively different from the sexual dependence of an individual on an individual of the opposite sex for reproduction. It is an asexual dependence that has sexual externalities which can be considered sexual pollution if not mitigated. This is why cities are associated with homosexuality and other forms of sexual decadence.) The ultimate “civilization” is a multicellular organism consisting of specialized clones. An intermediate is presented by colonies of eusocial species (bees, ants, etc.) wherein sexual reproduction is secondary to the propagation of the group.

Females: The component of sexual animals that creates by choosing that worthy of organic reproduction.

Males: The component of sexual animals that creates by choosing that worthy of organic destruction.

Gang: A group of males that subdues individuals by force.

Government or State: A gang that uses coercive persuasion.

Nation: People united by consanguinity and congeniality.

Discussion

When civilization advances, its first act is to capture the male function of creation by organic destruction—manifest by single combat between males—in group force. This is the origin of warfare. This is also the point where patriarchy becomes crucial.

I’ll pause and wait to see where things should go from here.

Posted by Guessedworker on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 17:28 | #

James,

Have you factored into your model the violence of male intellectualism as the true creative medium of civilisation? Combat misses the point, to my mind. The world is made of ideas before actions.

Posted by James Bowery on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 18:12 | #

GW reifies: “the violence of male intellectualism”

I class that under “coercive persuasion”, which is the primary mode of action of gangs as governments.

Sperm met egg hundreds of millions of years before what we call “ideas” existed.

Posted by Dan Dare on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 20:29 | #

Hutchinson also ignores the obvious point that Russia and Ukraine are also part of Europe and that their eventual amalgamation into an enlarged EU will do much to alleviate Europe’s resource shortfall.

This process is already in train and will be further facilitated by natural mutual interest as we enter the Age of Shortages, which he correctly predicts. The biggest challenge for Europe will be to maintain its ethnic integrity whilst the process runs its course and the global power blocs complete their realignment.

And I’m not sure that the full metamorphosis of Canada and Australia into the colonial granary and mine for China and India can really be characterised as ‘prospering’ either . Hutchinson does the populations of both countries a grave mis-service by suggesting that it can.

Posted by Desmond Jones on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 20:57 | #

their sociobiological environment stigmatizes the men with whom they might raise children as unworthy of reproduction.

Or the women as unworthy as well. The unworthiness recently lamented by the feminats at OD does not deal with aesthetics, exclusively, but also biology. Women are not wired to be discerning about racial issues, and therefore s’be disenfranchised, or so the theory goes. Erocide was touched on…a fat blue-eyed blonde girl who married a Muslim or Moroccan or something because white guys would not look at her because she did not measure up to the Claudia Schiffer standard set by Hollywood. Or something like that…

Posted by Jesse on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 21:47 | #

James Bowery,

Thank you for the informative exposition.

Just to clarify some more definitions, by “Alpha of State” I take that to refer to the government which has replaced the traditional “Alpha male” of patriarchy i.e. the head of household of the nuclear family, correct?

Also, if you could clarify where you say that, “...the potential creativity of Euroman. Unleashed?primarily from low sociosexual status?that creativity would solve the commodity problem very rapidly. That is where Islam may blind-side Western elites and demonstrate the abject intellectual, moral and ethical bankruptcy of those elites.”

I’m not sure what you mean when you say that Islam will blind-side the West and how this relates to the creativity of Euroman. Are you saying that many Euro males, fed up with the Western ethnic elites and what they’ve done to him and his societies, will eventually defect to Islam as something comparatively better, and thus replenish Islam, provide it with the techno capacity and creativity of Euroman, and make it even more potent? Or do you mean that the Western ethnic elites, having foolishly and with great hubris immiserated Euroman and thus the very source of their strength and advantage, Euroman’s creativity, will lose to Islam due to Islam’s advantages in other, more traditional ways and modes (i.e. patriarchy, breeding, discipline, violence, zeal, etc.) aside from creativity or technical ability?

Posted by James Bowery on Thu, 15 Apr 2010 01:46 | #

Jesse:

Yes, the Alpha of State is the de facto goal of so-called “feminism”, expressing an African atavism in female sociobiology. It is the primary failure mode of civilizations that don’t directly recognize the conflict with human nature inherent in asexual dependency and specialization. There have been a few times in history when homosexuality was openly promoted with state enforcement of of fertility between the sexes but the US, despite its promotion of homosexuality, has not yet come to terms with what this means because it is multiracial—which means there are some races making out like bandits under cover of the terminal confusion—so they don’t want open and honest recognition of the need for state intervention in reproduction. The US doesn’t have the luxury of Sparta’s monoracial composition so it can’t really deal rationally with homosexuality as a civilizing influence—for to do so would mean dealing rationally with race and reproduction and race competition always trumps rationality in civil discourse.

Your first interpretation of my statement about Islamics blind-siding Western elites is the most likely with the second being a fall-back position for Islam. Either way, Western elites are de facto agents of Islam.

As for economic rents and Euroman’s creativity:

We’re genetically far more adapted to individualism than civilization so when wealth is centralized away from “the middle class”—a euphemism for stable nuclear families capable of reproducing themselves from generation to generation—it undercuts the lifeforce of Euroman from which his creativity flows.

Posted by Jesse on Thu, 15 Apr 2010 08:21 | #

James,

I’m trying to understand the definition and description of “civilization” you provide above and was wondering about this remark: “It is an asexual dependence that has sexual externalities which can be considered sexual pollution if not mitigated. This is why cities are associated with homosexuality and other forms of sexual decadence.”

I would think that something like Cochran’s pathogen theory of homosexuality would be sufficient to explain the rise of homosexuality with civilization. But you seem to be suggesting that the economic structure of civilization that makes people dependent on the civilization for their livelihoods causes or increases the chances of homosexuality, with the corollary that those out in nature aren’t affected by this factor and thus can’t or aren’t likely to become homosexuals. But even if this were the case, wouldn’t the homosexuality be gradually weeded out due to the fitness cost as those more resistant to this factor of economic structure, whatever it is, replaced those more susceptible?

What exactly is this feature of economic structure inherent in civilization that produces “sexual externalities” such as homosexuality? Is it really a necessary feature? Such externalities obviously have a fitness cost on those afflicted, and you seem to suggest that they also have a cost on others as well (“sexual pollution if not mitigated”), so why does it persist? Why hasn’t it been selected out?

Posted by Jesse on Thu, 15 Apr 2010 08:52 | #

James,

Why is the first interpretation of your statement about Islamics blind-siding Western elites “most likely”? I would think the second one is more likely. Do you really envision legions of Euro males becoming Islamics in the near future? I think most would rather retreat to their video games than join the horde. And despite all the PC stuff in the media, the elites have demonized Islam through outlets like FOX News over the past decade. The average Euro male should be instinctively repulsed by it. It’s possible, but I have a hard time believing that it’s more likely than the second interpretation I gave.

And do you really think that the Euro males who defect to Islam would end up being free and thus able to flourish and develop innovative tech that solves the problems of resource constraints? Wouldn’t they end up being slaves again, but just to a different set of Semites?

Posted by Jesse on Thu, 15 Apr 2010 09:11 | #

I’m not sure what to make of your comment on China: “China may be able to intercede for a while, but they are ultimately doomed by their inability to impose patriarchy?with the resulting degeneration into the ?Alpha of State? failure mode.” What do you mean by “intercede”? China is quite insular. What does they have to do with Islam or Euroman? When you speak of their inability to impose patriarchy and their reversion to “Alpha of State,” what exactly do you mean? It’s a comment on China’s domestic state of affairs, correct? Like I said China seems pretty insular and I don’t see them having a big effect on other cultures, at least outside of East Asia.

Posted by James Bowery on Thu, 15 Apr 2010 15:33 | #

Jesse, the pathogen theory of homosexuality is consistent with “sexual pollution” of the type I’m discussing, although causal structures are notoriously difficult to tease out. It may even be the case that such pathogens are an intermediate phenotype, if you will, of the group organism with the group organisms’s “genotype” really being memetic rather than genetic. Certainly Cochrane and Harpending’s book “The 10,000 Year Explosion” would tend to indicate that some sort of cultural dynamic involving cities is driving biological aspects of human ecologies. (BTW: I’m far from an opponent of the pathogen theory of homosexuality since I was implored by gays on BIX in the early ‘80s to stop talking openly about the theory.) Moreover, male homosexuality isn’t the only sexual perversion that increases with civilization—lesbianism being an obvious example. I don’t think Cochrane has hypothesized a pathogenic cause for lesbianism and it would be difficult to justify in any case given the low rate of STDs among lesbians. The civilizing function of sexual perversion is simply to reduce the power of sex in people’s identity to a mere “preference”—like a taste in food or music—because it is sex in its primordial animal form that most threatens to over power the bond between the individual and the asexual group organism.

As for selecting genes susceptible to homosexuality out of the gene pool—remember that cities are historically population sinks—they consume population. They can be evolutionarily stable because they are founded on agriculture with its higher rural reproduction rates. Some groups—particularly specialized for urban living—may enjoy high rates of reproduction in the cities but they are going to have to be in some kind of ratio with rural populations to maintain the homeostasis of the city-as-organism. It is when technology unleashes the urban elites from homeostatic controls that we have evolutionary instability as we see in the erocidal depopulation of the West.

Again the case of the Spartans is particularly instructive since what they did was form a highly effective group organism that avoided interbreeding with the rural race on which they parasitically fed. This meant that to maintain their population they had to mitigate the fertility reducing sexual pollution of homosexuality by imposing fertility enhancing memes on the ruling race. The sexually perverse love of the group organism was compensated for by the group organism returning to them a self-sustaining rate of reproduction. This was Lycurgus’s genius.

As for Islam’s probable mode of technologically blind-siding Western elites:

All it takes to get the engineeers away from their video games and Fox news propaganda is throwing women at them. Like all mideastern religions, Islam is morally nimble enough to pull off all kinds of magic in this regard. Its hard for me to second guess how they would pick up this incredibly valuable discarded resource, but it is almost inconceivable to me that the imams would fail to do so, it is such a low-hanging fruit for them. They don’t have the handicap that Jews or their subcon allies suffer in this regard: niche competition. Jews and subcons have to convince themselves that the reason they are displacing Euroman in technology is because Euroman is inferior. To any objective observer, that is obviously not true and the imams don’t have a dog in this fight.

It is certainly true that the Euromen enslaved to Islam would be far less effective than they would be under a system like the one I’ve described (collecting all economic rents and distributing them evenly to all citizens with strict border controls). But the current regime enslaving Euroman is so pathological that you don’t need much freedom to get profound returns on the resources you invest in them.

What I mean by China “interceding” is that, for example, the California government is now in active negotiations with the Chinese to construct a high speed passenger rail system in California, and you can bet the labor will not be provided by unemployed Americans. This sort of expansion of the “overseas Chinese” role will appear to be a potential competition with Islam for a while. The problem is, as can already be seen in recent social dynamics in China, the high male to female ratio is resulting in “empowered women”—and the Chinese don’t have the cultural resources to deal with this unless they quickly do an about face and start preferentially aborting male fetuses. Moreover, they are increasing their interactions with both Jews and India to the point that I expect it won’t be long before the combination of “empowered women” and invasion of parasitic cultures will undo them.

Posted by Wandrin on Thu, 15 Apr 2010 16:45 | #

Hutchinson’s big mistakes are to entirely ignore nationalism and ethnic genetic interest.

Agree. I think he’s hit the future nail on the head contrasting shortage of commodities with a massive oversupply of labour but race is real and it matters. Our most precious commodity is our genepool and we need an unyielding barrier to protect it. As long as we maintain that genepool we have the potential to invent our way out of any problem.

Some things that follow from this:

Recycling - most of the Green bandwagon is stealth marxist bullshit, especially the global warming con trick, but in a resource hungry world every ounce of imported raw materials must be re-used over and over again. This should be a major plank of nationalist policy both for practical reasons and to compensate the kids who’ve been brain-washed in school over carbon. I’d say the same about energy efficiency.

Education has to be elitist but non-elitist i.e every ounce of brains and creativity needs to be harnessed for the green goddess of white rabbit creativity and none wasted through being born in the wrong social class. Also education and training needs to stress science and engineering with combined university-factories.

A population decline to a more sustainable level is a good thing. As long as we have the technology to defend ourselves with we don’t need to outnumber anyone.

Posted by Jesse on Thu, 15 Apr 2010 20:53 | #

“Some groups?particularly specialized for urban living?may enjoy high rates of reproduction in the cities but they are going to have to be in some kind of ratio with rural populations to maintain the homeostasis of the city-as-organism. It is when technology unleashes the urban elites from homeostatic controls that we have evolutionary instability as we see in the erocidal depopulation of the West.”

I see. So these urban elites who feed off of the rural populace and harvest its energy would have in the past under more traditional circumstances been counter-balanced by homeostatic controls such as traditional Christianity that would maintain rural populations. But now advanced technologies in the forms of the MSM, Hollywood, etc., are so potent that these elites have become “too good” at harvesting the populace and have stripped it bare as a result, disrupting the equilibrium. Especially since these urban elites are more accurately ethnic elites who are quite hostile to the rural population and who thus lack the requisite paternalism that would likely be a factor in an indigenous elite and would mitigate some of these extreme effects.

Posted by Jesse on Thu, 15 Apr 2010 20:54 | #

“All it takes to get the engineeers away from their video games and Fox news propaganda is throwing women at them. Like all mideastern religions, Islam is morally nimble enough to pull off all kinds of magic in this regard. Its hard for me to second guess how they would pick up this incredibly valuable discarded resource, but it is almost inconceivable to me that the imams would fail to do so, it is such a low-hanging fruit for them.”

What makes you so confident that the Imams would be able to pull this off? They don’t seem to have a history of “throwing women” at other men. They seem inclined to seize other peoples’ women and even within their own groups to monopolize the women amongst a few and to send out the surplus men to get their 72 virgins in heaven by blowing themselves up. I fail to see how promising 72 virgins in the afterlife would entice a dispossessed, technically adept and scientifically minded Euro male away from his video games and porn. What exactly is this “winning strategy” of Islam you allude to? There doesn’t seem to be much strategy or anything that special to it. It’s just a patriarchy and is at the right place at the right time in history. Is there something more to it that I’m missing?

Posted by Jesse on Thu, 15 Apr 2010 20:56 | #

James,

I agree with your comment on China. Like you say they may do ok for a while but I think their rise is overhyped and that they’re vulnerable. I don’t think they really understand what they’re getting into and what and whom they’re dealing with in terms of those parasitic cultures and competitors you mention. I think they have an instinctive sense and understanding informed by their natural collectivism and xenophobia, but I think this is heightened in them because as you say they lack the cultural resources, and they also have a relatively lower verbal IQ, to defend themselves. The greater natural collectivism and xenophobia is a defense mechanism to compensate, but once more parasitic cultures are able to find an “in” and take advantage of vulnerabilities (such as the “empowered women”), I would imagine they will collapse and wilt quite readily. Peter Frost seems to have argued along similar lines recently when he said that he expects sub-Saharan Africans to race replace and take over much of China over the coming decades:

http://evoandproud.blogspot.com/2010/03/has-china-come-to-end-of-history.html

Posted by Eddie Booth on Thu, 15 Apr 2010 23:01 | #

Another thing that Hutchinson neglects to mention is the fact that industrial wages in China rise by something like 10 - 20% per annum, year on year and have continued to do so for at least two decades now.
So much for his notion that a ‘worldwide surplus’ of labour has caused its price to crash.
By contrast avearge incomes in the USA are, in fact, *lower* now than in 1968 when measured in real terms.During the same time period the USA really opened itself up to ‘free trade’, previously the US trading patterns were particularly distinguished by their insularity.
I’m sure there’s a moral there somewhere.

Posted by Desmond Jones on Fri, 16 Apr 2010 00:00 | #

I would imagine they will collapse and wilt quite readily.

Not necessarily. If the Chinese penchant for the collective is co-evolutionary, a memetic, in the same sense non-kinship based reciprocity, evolved by the English, is an extended phenotype, so then is the Chinese collective. In an article posted at MR, by Guessedworker, research indicated that the Chinese cultural evolution of a collective correlated with an amelioration of a higher propensity for psychosis (depression) in that population. In some sense the geno/phenotype represented there will potentially inoculate them because it serves a wider purpose.

The Spartan society is interesting, in that it functioned as pederasty for so long. It is effectively child abuse which appears to associate with psychosis. There is evidence from English universities that child abuse, for instance, contributes significantly to schizophrenia. The alleged Greek pederasty was associated with their Gods: “For your gods did not abstain even from boys. One loved Hylas, another Hyacinthus, another Pelops, another Chrysippus, another Ganymedes. These are the gods your wives are to worship!” What’s the origin of Gods loving boys? Auditory/visual hallucinations brought on by child sexual abuse? High primates also, according to some research, abuse their offspring. Infanticide may have evolved in primates to deal with Malthusian catastrophes, however, what fitness gain derives from child abuse?

The Abrahamic religions vigorously condemned sodomy.

Posted by Wandrin on Fri, 16 Apr 2010 00:02 | #

So much for his notion that a ‘worldwide surplus’ of labour has caused its price to crash.

It has though. Even with increasing wages labour costs in China are much lower than in the west. I think the point is globalization is acting to average out labour costs with Chinese wages growing rapidly (from a very low base) while western wages head downwards.

Posted by Eddie Booth on Fri, 16 Apr 2010 10:21 | #

Latest statistics indicate that the Chinese economy is now growing at an annualised rate of 11% + , in fact at the deepest point of the current depression, Chinese growth rates never dipped below 6%.
6% annual growth - just think what the Cowdenbeast or Camoron would have given for that! - the national fiscal deficit wiped out in a stroke!, and it’s back to playing lady Bountiful with taxpayers’ cash, bloating the NHS and National Union of Teachers, giving the wogs billions more of ‘overseas aid’ to show how ‘virtuous’ you are.
Anyway, my point is that the global economic meltdown really passed China by.

Posted by Leon Haller on Mon, 19 Apr 2010 12:23 | #

I would like to have joined this discussion earlier, as I would like to understand what Mr. Bowery is talking about. I am clueless. That said, I think the explanations to many of the issues he broaches, especially respecting the collapse of Western birthrates, are considerably less complicated than he makes out. If he posts something again on all this, I will comment extensively.

Posted by Q on Mon, 19 Apr 2010 14:01 | #

“I think the explanations to many of the issues he broaches, especially respecting the collapse of Western birthrates, are considerably less complicated than he makes out. If he posts something again on all this, I will comment extensively.”—Leon Haller

——

Leon,

Why wait for James Bowery to post again? Let us know why you think whites are choosing not to have kids. Personally I think it is rooted in the modern world’s rejection of traditional Church teachings in favor of pop-culture and the religion of Leftism. Also, most people that identify as Christians are acually practising two religions:

1) Christianity, and 2) Leftism.

Within the minds of the vast majority of “Christians”, Leftism is the stronger of the two so it takes precedence; hence, traditional Christianity gets pushed to the background.

IMO, what we are witnessing is a whole bunch of misguilded white people practising a man-made religion in the name of Christianity.

Posted by James Bowery on Mon, 19 Apr 2010 19:22 | #

Jesse asks: What makes you so confident that the Imams would be able to pull this off? They don’t seem to have a history of “throwing women” at other men.

I don’t know how they will pull it off—I just know they have the motive and opportunity and I believe they have the means, based on the track record of middle eastern theoracies.

Posted by James Bowery on Mon, 19 Apr 2010 21:15 | #

Leon Haller writes: I think the explanations to many of the issues he broaches, especially respecting the collapse of Western birthrates, are considerably less complicated than he makes out.

Intelligence is the ability to simplify. I’m all ears.

Posted by Land Rover Repair Atlanta on Wed, 07 Sep 2011 19:10 | #

great stuff guys!

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