Online Sales Growth Effects Local Service Economies Read the following article: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080408/online_sales.html Now, reflect. Deduct nearly all residential construction from your Local Serfice (intentionally misspelled) Economy. Subtract about 95% of new commercial construction. What remains is plenty of existing square footage to supply a declining sector’s needs. The portion declining fastest will be the part which fits inside a UPS package’s weight & cubic limits. Now factor the store owners and employees who formerly worked in the boarded up stores out of the equation. Maguire has been projecting this for quite awhile. The online ‘growth’ in retail is coming entirely at the expense of the local bricks ‘n mortar store fronts. Jobs in the Local Service Economies are taking another hit. For the remaining jobs our Europid underclass will increasingly lose out to mobile, church- and government-sponsored “Hispanics.” The easy money monetarism of the investment classes demands it! The outline is very plain. The ‘mall’ of the future will be a series of commercial-industrial parks surrounding a complex of FEDEX/UPS/DHL/USPS regional shipping hubs. Instead of consumers driving to the malls on $4/gallon gas the Brown Truck will drive to the consumer. And to his neighbor, and to his neighbor, and… What are some other Local Service Economy activities we can anticipate declining? 1. New car sales. 2. Garages, auto mechanics, Quick Lube joints and similar. As the belt tightens more people will substitute DIY fix’up for the local grease monkey. Worse, neighborhood shade tree mechanics will start offering strong price point competition. An 80% decline in cash flows sounds conservative to me. 3. New appliance sales. The vast majority of junked appliances could have been repaired. Large numbers are junked merely to suit female aesthetic whims. For instance, our GE washer door switch went out awhile back. Since we never open the lid while it’s in cycle, I merely bypassed the switch until a new one was obtained. Similarly, our RCA badged (GE built) dishwasher pump started leaking last month. I pulled the machine out of the counter, identified the problem part and part number, and installed a ‘used’ replacement pump & motor unit from eBay for the cost of $29 plus $10 shipping. . Pedro’s attempt to break-in to our white-dominated lawn service market in flyover country is over. Unfortunately for younger whites *their* lawn businesses have and will continue to decline, as well. Local pool services ditto. It’s not that hard to clean pools and test the chemical balances yourself. Comments:2
Posted by haramzada on Tue, 08 Apr 2008 18:35 | # If people had been more ready to mow their own lawn and clean the pool themselves, then the ‘’need” for Pedro would not have emerged so readily. For myself, I like pottering about in the garden, thats part of the fun of having a garden, maybe thats more of an English thing? Or maybe you’ve never been to suburban America and seen all the well-manicured lawns and huge overpriced home & garden centers. We have Home Depots bigger than your country. 3
Posted by GT on Tue, 08 Apr 2008 20:32 | # Free time for suburban Americans is, uh, “valuable.” That’s because they are such “hard workers.” Hey, well, flying a desk is not easy! And providing customer satisfaction in the retail biz is not a piece of cake, either. No, really! It’s not, goddamnit! Actually, to most suburbanites Pedro is little more than an acquisition - a status symbol, if you prefer. He’s a “me-too” thing that lower middle-class desk jockeys have around to show that they are “moving on up to the big time.” You’ll find Pedro mowing lots ‘n lots of small lawns in tracts crammed with 1900 sq. ft. homes in yards the size of a postage stamp. American suburbanites think landscape maintenance is all about mowing and watering lawns. Neither Pedro nor his employer know much about genuine lawn and garden care. That’s why so much junk is bought at Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Orchard. You gotta buy a lot of stuff to find something that kinda, sorta works (in a way)! 4
Posted by Lurker on Wed, 09 Apr 2008 01:35 | # GT, now that seems plausible. There was a time when people cared for their own garden, maybe even grew some vegetables. Only the very rich would employ gardeners. Now it seems, and Im being quite anecdotal here, that many people in middle class homes are employing gardeners, a generation ago that would generally have been something they did themselves. The difference is they cant afford it the way the really wealthy can, so they need to make savings and its hola Pedro. However the process here doesnt seem to have advanced to that end point, we certainly have a lot more gardeners working than when I was a kid but its still a job done by Brits. 5
Posted by Lurker on Wed, 09 Apr 2008 01:43 | # How times have changed. Both my working class paternal grandfather and my middle class maternal grandfather (now both deceased), while not having much else in common, both enjoyed working in their gardens. The idea of employing someone even just to mow the lawn would have seemed ludicrous. After all what would be the point of having a garden then. 6
Posted by Laurel Loflund on Thu, 10 Apr 2008 01:19 | # No one has mentioned that, with both spouses working, most adults are too tired to do much but eat fast food and sit once they (finally) get home. Not a good situation. God bless, 7
Posted by onlooker on Thu, 10 Apr 2008 14:24 | # We’re going to have to adjust to a lower standard of living, that’s all. No more luxuries like automatic dishwashers, hired landscapers, TVs PCs, and play stations in every room, etc. People are going to have to learn to sew and mend there clothes. (Whatever happened to the shoe repairman?). The average size of the house’s can be cut in half from 2000 to 1000 sq ft. Kids must learn to entertain themselves by having pick-up baseball, football and hockey games, etc, at the local parks. A gradual change in the lifestyle of the working class is starting to happen. Men will suddenly be required to acquire basic plumbing, electrical, mechanic, and carpentry skills. The backyard fruit and vegetable garden will make a comeback. Canning and food preservation skills will be necessary. In other words, lifestyles will more resemble (depending on your age) those of our parents, grand parents, or great-grand parents. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ “No one has mentioned that, with both spouses working, most adults are too tired to do much but eat fast food and sit once they (finally) get home.” —Laurel Loflund Laurel, you more than I, are probably well aware the family breakup had it’s beginnings during the advent of the industrial revolution in the 18’th century. That’s when the father left the farm or family business at went to work in the factory. That action left only the mother to tend to the kids and the household chores. Now both mother and father have to work outside the house in order to make ends meet. Before the industrial revolution, the family, more than less, worked as a team. Each member—kids and parents— helped one another accomplish an orderly working household. Creatures comforts increased astronomically since the Industrial revolution began; however, family cohesion has progressively deteriorated .... On balance, has the trade off been worth it? 8
Posted by GT on Thu, 10 Apr 2008 17:17 | # When the sales price of homes was removed from the Consumer Price Index in 1983, this had the effect of masking inflation and giving people the impression that they were “wealthier” than they actually were. This effect was reinforced by the “money for nothing” hype in the propasphere. Almost overnight many people became “middle-class” in name and actually felt “middle-class” due to the sudden availability of easy credit. Subscriptions to investment newsletters soared and two wage-earner households became accepted as the norm. Are they working harder? Since I define work in terms of force, displacement, and angle I have to say no, they are not working harder. They do not provide the propulsion required to fly the desk they are sitting behind. Something else does. What’s happening is there has been an increase in time spent sitting on buttocks or standing motionless during the work week. Much, but not all of this increase in time has been taken up by working moms. For out-of-shape dads who are “moving up to the big time” by leveraging other people’s wealth or working for institutions that do, desk flying is mentally exhausting. It is why pay-per-view, high definition television, and “hoppy” beer are in such high demand. It’s why $15k-$40k boats and trailers are all over the road on Memorial Day weekend. It’s why I’m seeing a helluva lot of real nice Harley Davidson motorcycles crunched beneath the heavy posteriors of unnaturally pale individuals with Jergen hands. Dad simply hasn’t the mental energy to tackle a postage stamp-sized lawn on weekends. It’s too exhausting. Government statistics are constantly tweaked to produce better than actual results. The unemployment rate for 2004, for example, was probably closer to 12%. Inflation measurements have been low-balled and gross domestic product has been high-balled for decades. Whirlpool recently moved production intended for US markets from the USA to Mexico. The increased profit margins resulting from lower labor and other costs was counted as a productivity gain and added to ‘growth’. But the monetarist economy is not solely responsible for mom and dad’s behavior. A moral factor is involved - one that Republican supporters of “hardworking” non-Europid immigrants consistently fail to apply to themselves: Aversion to work. That is why I say there is more than a grain of truth behind “Family Guy” and “King of the Hill” cartoons on television. Family Guy doesn’t mow his lawn in real life. Pedro does. 9
Posted by DavidL on Fri, 11 Apr 2008 00:57 | # GT You mentioned an ” aversion to work”. Would you expand on that - i.e. what is your definition of real ” work”. Be gentle - no UFC smackdowns. 10
Posted by torgrim on Tue, 10 Mar 2009 21:35 | # Talk about the Europid underclass! First, take down the Production economy. Now, look what has just crawled out from under the proverbial rock….Who are these people? Please look up, if interested in the Land Clearances that is happening in N. America, 11
Posted by David Ben on Tue, 19 Apr 2011 16:26 | # I also agree with you that online sales service effect on local service economics. If we grow up sales in online we can improve economics site. Thanks Post a comment:
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Posted by Lurker on Tue, 08 Apr 2008 18:18 | #
If people had been more ready to mow their own lawn and clean the pool themselves, then the ‘‘need” for Pedro would not have emerged so readily.
For myself, I like pottering about in the garden, thats part of the fun of having a garden, maybe thats more of an English thing?