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Mortgage Chaos Awaits Next US Presidential Election The best fit of quarterly US foreclosure starts since 2007 3rd quarter extrapolated to the 3rd quarter of 2012 shows that the cumulative prime mortgages, not “sub-prime” and not “underwater”, not “delinquent” but foreclosed is nearly 25 million. It is a very good fit (R-squared adjusted: 0.998). There are a total of 128 million housing units in the United States.
See derivation of this graph below.
Quarterly prime foreclosure starts from 2007:Q3 to 2009:Q2: Cumulative: Best saturation curve (sigmoid) fit:
Coefficients y = a / (1.0 + e^(-(x-b)/c)) + d a = 2.1253708428314026E+10
Degrees of freedom (error): 4.0
The reason this current trend is likely to continue to chaos is that it reflects a trend, very long in the making going back to the 1970s, whose symptoms have been quelled by basically turning our women of the baby boom into corporate concubines in a kind of economically induced sex slavery, monkeying with the definition of “inflation” until it basically excludes the cost of a house and, finally, when it was time to kick the aging boomer corporate concubines out on the street, a series of investment bubbles. The end game is upon us. The last of the assets of the people are being centralized beyond repair without some kind of revolutionary change in the relationship between the people and their institutions. Here’s a graph showing that this change started building in the early 1970s. It is somewhat misleading in that real wages actually declined due to large fixed expenses such as house price and health insurance that the government managed to suppress in its inflation (which should be the cost of reproduction) adjustment:
Comments:2
Posted by James Bowery on Thu, 03 Sep 2009 21:24 | # Cute but, aside from the fact that this has been going on since the ‘70s, it left out a few things: <ol><li>The fact that the people on the bus own the bus company. I’ve got more but its already a challenge to cram all that into a short story. 3
Posted by jamesUK on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 03:25 | # @Euro Obviously the bus driver and the passengers work for Bechtel and they made there way to Iraq. They’ve run out of oil because there fighting pointless colonial wars in Iraq and Afghanistan sending the price of upwards and ruining the value of the US dollar to the point if they try to buy oil they won’t be able to pay for it. 4
Posted by jamesUK on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 05:27 | # @Fred Scrooby That’s a new economic theory so it would have nothing to do with US constant warfare, military bases overseas, the Federal reserve, corruption in government at the highest level Madoff, Marc Rich, Soros, BCCI, aid to Israel and its neighbours, etc. 5
Posted by Bozo The Economist on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 12:10 | # Hey Scrooby! That made me chuckle. “The Chimp”, Africa’s worthless currency. Ha ha ha. You’re absolutely right that currency is backed by race. Economies are human constructs and the higher evolved the humans, the higher the quality of life that economy produces. Until the “you know whos” get to work at rotting it from within that is. 6
Posted by jamesUK on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 16:22 | # @Fred Scrooby I take ethnicity into consideration which is even more precise than race. I’ll agree that race specific ones with high IQ’s Japan, South Korea, Finland, Germany, etc are the basis of what makes a strong society and economy but race is not why we are in this global financial meltdown no black chappy is making us spend trillions of dollars in Iraq, Afghanistan and forth coming war against Russia and the Islamisation of Russia, Central Asia and China. It wasn’t black people who created the Federal Reserve a privately owned Central Bank charge the government interest on loans to print US dollars getting the US in trillions of dollars of debt. 7
Posted by Bozo The Economist on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 16:27 | # jamesUK wrote:
Well don’t keep us in suspense jamesUK. Go on, enlighten us as to who you think is behind it. 8
Posted by James Bowery on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:34 | # OK, I’ve had it with this noise. Anyone want to help me solve the weblog problem? All I need is rent, utilities, internet connection, food for my charges and I can solve it myself in 3 months. PS: The solution has seemed obvious to me for years and I thought for sure someone would have done it by now. No disclosure as to what I’m going to do. If its that non-obvious to those skilled in the art, I need the privacy. 9
Posted by cladrastis on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 18:38 | # It’s an interesting model, but aren’t you making predictions pretty far beyond the range of your dataset? 10
Posted by James Bowery on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 19:10 | # No, it is reasonable. None of the models, numeric or informal, out there would have guessed at a sigmoid fit for prime foreclosures with an R-squared anywhere close to .998 for the period of 2007Q3-2009Q2 There is a very simple, very robust process going on here that is impervious to “crises” or “interventions”—a simple robust process that no one has been talking about let alone figured would fit such a simple model so well. People just don’t get how good the model is. Something like this should be a front page WSJ headline “What the Hell is with THIS?” news—it doesn’t touch directly on immigration or race or any other thought taboos the dolts submit to. But this work was easy. Am I the only guy in the world doing straight-forward, Stat 101 analysis of the most critical political economic numbers? PS: The fit is good enough that if it were any better I would seriously consider the possibility that someone fabricated the numbers to fit the model. 11
Posted by Q on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 20:01 | #
You are going to compile a list of those people who have been foreclosed on. Contact them, and educate them on the benefits of a “Citizen’s dividend”? In other words you can use the Citizen’s dividend concept as a selling point to start a political backlash against the current corrupt economic model while the conditions on the ground are ripe? Is that what you are getting at? 12
Posted by James Bowery on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 20:14 | # No, I’m referring to this: solve the weblog problem The noise level from guys like jamesUK in response to an important discovery like this just burns me. I don’t want “people” (whoever or whatever he is) like that having the ability to disrupt potentially constructive dialog—dialog that might lead to things like people being able to figure out how to accomplish something like the program you suggest. 13
Posted by cladrastis on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 21:13 | # Are you referring to the findings of Elizabeth Warren? 14
Posted by James Bowery on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 21:28 | # Warren’s findings are definitely part of the theory needed to predict the model but there is something else going on here. I was predicting the centralization of wealth would result in what we are seeing unfold now, but I was doing it in 1992 and didn’t expect there to be 2 bubbles putting off the implosion. What we’re seeing is, I think, a combination of that centralization of wealth (which is a “normal” part of unenlightened statecraft—unlenlightenment exacerbated by Jewish social pseudoscience in the 20th century holding economics back as a science—especially in political economics) playing out in some kind of endgame with very pure, noise-free system dynamics exhibited in the prime foreclosure curve. The precise system dynamics of that particular curve are what I find interesting, not the underlying long-term causes which, I believe, are well understood to anyone who hasn’t had their eyes plucked out and frontal lobes scrambled by 20th century social psceudoscience described in “Culture of Critique”. It is cleaner than I would have anticipated which means there is an undiscovered, simple and elegant theory for the immediate phenomenon. Figure out what that theory is and you may be able to make a lot of other predictions for the near future. 15
Posted by jamesUK on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 22:39 | # @James Bowery I was responding to Fred Scooby’s remark about my comment and it is pretty obvious that war is a major contributing factor to our current economic woes. @Bozo The Economist
Jewish international bankers. The Federal Reserve Bank is a consortium of 9 Zionist Jewish-owned & associated banks with the Rothschilds at the head: http://www.rense.com/general85/feddrec.htm Although that might just be an Anti-Semitic Myth. 16
Posted by A Gentle Bearded Leftwinger. on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 09:21 | # Blame that stupid bastard Reagan and his ‘neo-liberal’ economics pushed by the WSJ and ‘The Economist’, and all the stupid middle and working class bastards who voted for that ass-clown (they are the ones getting screwed). 17
Posted by n/a on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 17:06 | # “People just don’t get how good the model is.” It’s called overfitting, James. This is not how you construct a model if you are trying to predict anything in the real world. It’s clear from simply looking at your seven data points that the increase is roughly linear over the interval you have chosen. Just because you can fit an exponential curve to the data with the help of four meaningless coefficients does not mean your “model” is valid. 18
Posted by James Bowery on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 17:38 | # n/a, the avoidance of overfitting in predictive models is best accomplished via Kolmogorov complexity approximation. It is one of the reasons I proposed Kolmogorov complexity for extracting epistemological truth from Wikipedia. In the present instance, I chose the sigmoid model based on the proximate theory that if we are going through a “crisis” we should expect there to be something like a pulse of foreclosure starts which will return to a near-zero baseline once the crisis is past. Therefore the cumulative number of foreclosures will have a linear component but it will be very small—with the dominant feature being something that looks like an integral of a pulse. I chose a Gaussian to represent the pulse and hence its integral, the sigmoid, to represent the cumulative foreclosures. It was the first function I chose. No others of any comparably low complexity and high plausibility are as good a fit. 2 of the parameters are simple offsets in x and y and the other two are scales for x and y. This is minimal. Now, if I had actually engaged in your proposed data-dredging fallacy, I would have tried a bunch of models the way zunzun.com does with its “function finder” which is a classic demonstration of an overfitter. Indeed, I’ve been in communication with the author of zunzun about fixing his function finder to use Kolmogorov complexity to rank-order the findings for precisely that reason. 19
Posted by GenoType on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 20:24 | # In the glad handing manner of classists everywhere, including our “Esoteric Radical Right”: Impressive! Except that scrolling to the bottom of the entry we see that foreclosure sales are much lower and not following an exponential trend. Once again it appears Bowery has cherry-picked the juiciest data to produce the most sensational headline. No doubt another trail is being back-blazed to the Citizen’s Bribe, this time for the purpose of preventing mass homelessness among white urban yupwits. I want to see Bowery’s model tested against foreclosure data from 2000-2006 inclusive. If the apocalyptic predictions for 2012 are reliable, then surely the model can tell us what happened back in 2005, 2004, etc., so that even pensioned paytriots with one foot in the grave could verify its usefulness. —- Impossible to factor into market equations is the fact that the supply of zogbux ain’t static. It is subject to unannounced policy changes by a tiny Cabal. Consequently, apparent inexorable trends in the equation are subject to ruptures caused by discontinuities. Put less ‘esoterically,’ it’s not that systems - meaning equations developed through empirical observation - don’t work in markets. Some of them do for a time, depending on the competence of the developer. They work until the Cabal decides to change the underlying rules. That is why all linear, parabolic, and exponential functions used to analyze/describe markets eventually break down.
Complexity: Where Science and Christian Science intersect. Complexity is a lucrative game for modern techno-witchdoctors, a subset of which include our very own Association of Esoteric Radical Rightists. The pursuits of Bowery, et al, have precious little to do with white freedom – much less getting one seed planted in the ground or one atom of aluminum extracted from it. It is all about obtaining the geezergelt, and so is designed to exploit the ignorance and fear of geezers faced with declining home equities and stock dividends who are looking for somebody to preserve their own easy or ill-gotten monetary gains. 20
Posted by James Bowery on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 20:36 | # Invective, ignorance about model complexity and libel about “geezergelt-seeking” aside, the reason foreclosure starts are a better measure than foreclosure sales is that foreclosure sales reflect the banks’ sense of the market trends combined with their sense of bailout trends. The more confident they are of being bailed out the less urgent the sale is but the more they perceive the market is at a peak the more urgent the sale. Predictably, the financial press fashion at the peak of prime mortgage foreclosure sales (prior to the inexorable trend which I am pointing out) was the point of greatest panic about the future price times the uncertainty about a bailout of the banks. Foreclosure notices, on the other hand, are a relatively mechanical and hence objective measure of family insecurity with regard to their most critical asset. 21
Posted by Captainchaos on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 21:05 | #
But GT, the behavior of the “Cabal” of ethnically aggressive, ethno-self-interested Jews of the Federal Reserve is itself a variable we more or less take as a given, not able to be analyzed due to its at present ‘irreducible complexity’ as discernible to us at this time, according to the internal logical of your critique. 22
Posted by GenoType on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 21:43 | #
You’re a narcissist. Everybody but you realizes it, except for a handful of stupid individuals like your newest easy money ally, the bumbling drunken fool calling itself Q. Were you a “random” or “targeted” victim of H1b? That is the question. I strongly suspect the latter, for your arrogant egoism exceeds that which is typical of the IT industry. In other words not even your twit colleagues in the industry could stand you, much less supervisors.
So you would have MR’s English majors and real estate brokers believe. Complexity: Where descriptions of that which turns not when it turns in Ezekiel meet net models for global warming and the “free” market.
So you say. Test your model against foreclosure data from 2000-2006 inclusive. If the apocalyptic predictions for 2012 are reliable, then surely it will tell us what happened back in 2005, 2004, etc., so that even pensioned paytriots with one foot in the grave could verify its usefulness. This is where the global warming neural net models constantly break down. They are not capable of reliably predicting a decade ahead even after training them on 150 years’ worth of data. Models trained up to 1999 don’t reliably tell us what 2000-2009 was like. Many more examples can be provided. I shall not waste my time. So much for techno-witchdoctors selling “complexity,” which include the Esoteric Radical Rightist James Bowery. —— Hey kidz, you can do it too! %finalproblem10.m 23
Posted by GenoType on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 22:22 | #
You forgot to quote this part:
This modifies what you think is the internal logic of my critique. We can depend on jewish ethno-aggression. We cannot always predict its expression. 24
Posted by Q on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 22:28 | #
Hark! The dumpster diving pseudo-intellectual speakith! Geno Freak, the Cyber-community-organizer extraordinaire makes his appearance to dazzle with his “critical thinking”... or should that be “critical idiocy”? 25
Posted by GenoType on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 22:40 | # True Property Ownership vs. Renting: Revilo P. Oliver and Robert Frenz thought clearly on this subject. Bowery doesn’t, at least nominally in the current entry. Oliver-Frenz defined “ownership” as legal title to property that was not subject to mortgage liens. Thats, thats, thats, all for now, folks! 26
Posted by James Bowery on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 22:57 | # I guess my proposal for a NET asset tax to replace taxes on economic activity, with an exemption for chapter 7 exempt assets even when owned free and clear didn’t get through to GT. Nor did my statement about the model being for a _current_ dynamic. Clearly, if one extrapolates it far enough in the future it is absurd but I don’t call 20% of the US housing units foreclosed absurd—“chaos” yes. 27
Posted by Captainchaos on Sat, 05 Sep 2009 23:41 | # GT, My critique was intended to be more broad than that. As an atheist and materialist I suspect you believe the behavior of Jewry is physically/genetically manifested as operating according to laws of physics which operate consistently within a range that we could consistently forecast were our understanding thorough enough. We believe we can count on the ethno-aggression of Jewry because they have always behaved that way in the past, past behavior being the best predictor of future behavior in the absence of a comprehensive understanding lacking at this time. It is an example of complexity that can be practically dealt with simply yet with the caveat that we should not abandon the quest for a comprehensive understanding. Also, you mention Christian Scientists, Bowery’s alleged narcissism, and the ability to administer beat downs to self-regarding ‘punks’ as being edifying. Now, Christian Science was a religion invented by a little old lady for tender hearted Victorian-like matriarchs who liked to sit with toy dogs on their laps and experienced the suffering of others, and the loss of even their pets, as nearly unbearable. We can snigger at that foolishness and recognize that such a way of doing things should not ultimately have sway. Men must have the final say, but men that are also moral. A moral could not with relish execute at point blank range a beaten, bloodied and begging “sub-human.” The Turner Diaries is in part an implicit critique of Adolf Hitler, whom in that work is referred to as “the Great One,” for being insufficiently ruthless. True we must do what it takes to secure the existence of our people, but to have descended to the level of brutes in the process is not something to take pride in, only perhaps to be done as one’s duty, if it be absolutely necessary, while choking back tears. Our people are good and loved by us, and therefore we believe they ought live. That is the rock upon which we stand. 28
Posted by Mark IJsseldijk on Sun, 06 Sep 2009 00:28 | #
I don’t either, at the present rate your model might be on the conservative end of numbers foreclosed. After all, how many of those soon-to-be-foreclosed units are owned by people with no income? How many people will soon be without income owing to job loss? How many will not be allowed favorable re-negotiations of mortgages because they are “people of means” (i.e. they have an income, unlike the immigrants who were given homes) and thus be forced to renege on the mortgage? &c;. 29
Posted by torgrim on Sun, 06 Sep 2009 01:22 | # Mark IJ said, “After all how many of those soon-to-be foreclosed units are owned by people with no income?” I do not have the undestanding or ability to make an informed opinion as to the Model suggested, however, with many years in the construction, trades/business, I must say, I think that the numbers may be low, ie., foreclosures, it may be worse than expected. The problem as I see it, the politicians have tanked the productive part of the economy and with it, the ability for many to afford the inflation that said politicians/elites, have put into the economy. In the past the over heated economy was generally cooled off by laying off the blue collar work force, however, this time it has gone viral. Reagan and the Fed Chief Vollker worked well together, 10% CD’s for Reagan’s cohort and, unemployment for the steel worker, housing, etc. and farm income off by a third. 30
Posted by Fharm Grimbolt on Sun, 06 Sep 2009 08:28 | #
One need only return to the writings and ways of the Ancient Aryans to deal with this issue:
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Posted by Frank on Sun, 06 Sep 2009 11:59 | # What Final Solution? Will a debate ensue or will Fharm Grimbolt flee the enraged Germans? This Celt looks on with glee. 32
Posted by Captainchaos on Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:46 | # There was no top-down program of total extermination of Jews called the “Final Solution”. Hitler repeatedly said the final disposition of Jews would be settled after the war. Though Himmler did apparently enjoy witnessing the mass machine gunning of Jews, as one man whom Himmler invited to view the spectacle told Irving. It is telling that Himmler in the end betrayed his Fuhrer and his honor. I do not look to him as a moral exemplar. 33
Posted by GenoType on Mon, 07 Sep 2009 19:43 | # Foreclosure starts are usually discretionary. This means mortgage holders can choose to initiate foreclosure proceedings anytime after a payment default - or not at all. Following the initiation of proceedings, most are stayed. Bankruptcy filings and trustee sales are just two means of staying foreclosure proceedings. The Wall Street Journal notes: “In California, notices of trustee sales, which are preludes to foreclosure sales, climbed by more than 80 percent to 33,178 in March, from February, according to data from ForeclosureRadar.com and the Field Check Group.” In that period judicial evictions and a completely ruined credit rating was averted for 33,000+ people. Landlords benefited from increased demand for rentals. Predictive validity requires that all foreclosure data be analyzed – sales and starts. The sky will not fall in 2012. It is in the interest of major judeoeconomic players – lenders, brokers, and government – to simultaneously reduce the expectations of the middle-class and keep easy money in their greedy little ‘I wannaberichtoo’ pockets. Only working- and lower middle-class white males and families are given the short shrift, for they haven’t the money to buy their way out to gated communities and system does not provide them with victim status. Bowery has cherry-picked his data. At least two key premises used in selecting that data – the significance of foreclosure starts to what is happening in the real world and the insignificance of foreclosure sales – are false. The predictive validity of his model is questionable at best. It can be shredded. Not that this will stop him. Nor will it hinder other classist “Esoteric Radical Rightists” from doing the same. Geezergelt beckons. Nor will it alter the behavior of foolish, easy money white pensioners who tend to gravitate toward Chicken Little theories for the excitement it brings to their otherwise dull, uninteresting, keyboard-bound lives. There will be no usurpation of jewish institutions. The Citizen’s Bribe cannot be snuck through the jewish system. There will be no takeover of the regime by classist-led gentile fools. There can only be White Secession and for that to happen sacrifice - meaning ALTERNATE SOCIOECONOMICS and WORK – is required. 34
Posted by GentoType on Mon, 07 Sep 2009 20:42 | #
The brute, in the sense you are using it, is a classist pejorative. Real brutes are the unthinking tools of classists who place ease, pleasure, money, and unearned stature above race. A visual analogy would include the Martian brutes in the 1953 movie, “Invaders from Mars.” No tears can be shed for classist architects and enablers - past, present, or future - of the present system or some facsimile thereof, ‘esoteric radical rightists’ posing as white nationalists included. Why should we die to replace one amoral, pathetically squalid group of “brains” with another who can and will sell us out the moment it becomes expedient to do so (see Bowery’s Citizen Bribe)? I do not measure success in terms of years, decades, or a few generations. Success is millennial. Next time, assuming there is a next time, the problem must be solved for next thousand years. 35
Posted by Captainchaos on Mon, 07 Sep 2009 21:25 | # Yggdrasil offers trenchant commentary on the insufficiency of National Socialism’s centralization of power and propaganda in inoculating the German people against the predations of aliens and alien interests:
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Posted by Q on Mon, 07 Sep 2009 22:01 | #
So says, Geno Freak— the current Jim Jones in training. Besides, who in their right mind acually gives a frick about what YOU measure success in? You’ve already proven by your own testimony that you are a loser. 37
Posted by James Bowery on Mon, 07 Sep 2009 22:34 | # If GT wants to stop posturing and start contributing, he can buy a copy of the most recent delinquency survey which I would have used in preference to the foreclosure start data except that the foreclosure data was current, accessible and GT’s claim of “discretion” over foreclosure starts notwithstanding, a reasonable proxy for delinquencies for imputation of genuine on-the-ground economic distress. Now I suppose he’ll claim delinquencies aren’t good for measurement either. Although I wasn’t able to obtain the actual data as current as 2009Q2 for prime delinquencies, I was able to obtain this graph, which appears to support my contention that foreclosure starts is a reasonable proxy for delinquencies:
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Posted by James Bowery on Mon, 07 Sep 2009 22:40 | # Addressing GT directly: Just who is it you think has been living off of what you call “geezergelt” and why do you impute such to those at MR? 39
Posted by GenoType on Tue, 08 Sep 2009 01:11 | # Yggdrasil, as quoted by Cap’n Chaos, fails on one key point. He assumes there would have been no Second World War if there had been no National Socialist government in Germany. He is wrong. It simply would have opened at Act III in mid-1944 with Soviet armies plunging into Europe from the east. The military-industrial goals of Stalin’s Five Year Plans were never dependent on the character of the government in Berlin. 40
Posted by GenoType on Tue, 08 Sep 2009 01:27 | #
In the Classist World of Conservative Conmen, GenoType’s criticism is called posturing. Rather typical of the glad handing crowd when their butts get pinched, isn’t it?
Note the scare quoting of discretion, folks. Most foreclosure starts are discretionary - a fact easily verified by those who are genuinely interested. Are foreclosure starts a reasonable proxy for measurement? Not by themselves. Why? Foreclosures have become ever more discretionary. It used to be lenders made money on them. That’s coming to an end. Besides, an upswing in foreclosure starts scare people – speculators big and small. They are not good for restoring confidence in a “recovering” service economy which is on a slow, downward spiral in the best of times - a spiral probably best measured in terms of decades.
Here another straw man is being stuffed. Foreclosure starts are discretionary. Sales must be considered, especially trustee sales which stay foreclosure proceedings – and not rejected for specious reasons. Lender participation in the National Delinquency Surveys is voluntary – not mandatory. There are several reasons why greedy lenders would/should curtail participation, and many of these are similar to the reasons used to initiate or stay foreclosure proceedings. I look forward to seeing Bowery rerun his model for the years I suggested and posting the results. 41
Posted by Q on Tue, 08 Sep 2009 01:40 | #
Hey Geno Freak, what does that have to do with organizing microcommunities? Why are you deviating from your life’s work? Is it you’ve finally come to the realization nobody wants to work with a person that has the personality of a prison convict? 42
Posted by Captainchaos on Tue, 08 Sep 2009 01:53 | #
Yggdrasil’s critique is not necessarily predicated upon a National Socialist regime as lightning rod. It is predicated upon the insufficiency of heroic and capable leadership which mobilizes its people to defend their existence using the state as a vehicle, because that leadership, and that state, can be destroyed; and his proposed “vaccine” (the assassination of select high profile trouble makers, and the buying of the international political process via the wealth of the nation) is not of sufficient strength for the state and its leadership can be destroyed as they were in the case of NS Germany. This holds too, obviously, for any secessionary insurgency. Not to mention even getting disparate groups of our people geared up to fight in the manner required at all: How do you propose to get them in that frame of mind? You will not even have a centralized state at your disposal to achieve it, much less provide a bulwark for their defense. With that in mind, I keep coming back to GW’s proposed philosophy as being absolutely essential to get any of these other proposed strategies off the ground at all, much less than achieve the desired effect. Our people must be inoculated mentally against all the fowl tricks deployed against the deficiency of their sociobiology. 43
Posted by GenoType on Tue, 08 Sep 2009 01:54 | # I want to repeat the following from post 80689: “Foreclosure starts are usually discretionary. This means mortgage holders can choose to initiate foreclosure proceedings anytime after a payment default - or not at all. Following the initiation of proceedings, most are stayed. Bankruptcy filings and trustee sales are just two means of staying foreclosure proceedings.” In many, many cases lenders are perfectly willing to work with debtors without initiating foreclosure proceedings. Lender participation in National Delinquency Surveys do not change that fact. By itself, an upsurge in delinquencies do not mean economic catastrophe for 2012. The sky will not fall, folks. As I stated to Mr. Prozak more than one year ago, a downward recessionary readjustment is taking place. It is not a Great Depression. Your presence here is proof of that. You’ll become used to it, as you have to others in the past. Remember the frog in the pot of warm water analogy. We must begin building an alternate socioeconomic system now. Later is too late. Th.. that’s.. that’s ALL fer now, Folks! 44
Posted by GenoType on Tue, 08 Sep 2009 03:22 | # I fergot the Cap’n…
Assuming secession becomes reality, we are in the pre-secessionist stage. Pre-secessionist thinking is geared toward fluidity. Fluidity requires the ability to seriously consider, adapt to, and create other socioeconomic, political, and military structures. People who are unwilling to seriously consider fluidity – MR’s conservative Q of low intelligence is an obvious example of such – are not only unfit for such operations, but detrimental as well. Most are easily bought. This type of CON would turn on family in a heartbeat to gain personal advantage. You once asked me what I meant by “sociopolitical entrepreneurs.” Promoting, designing and building real alternate socioeconomic structures – microcommunities, local groups, and socioeconomic networks of same – is sociopolitical entrepreneurship. It is not a profit seeking endeavor. It does not require compensation except, perhaps, for costs. What it does require is character and intelligence beyond that found in financial entrepreneurs operating within the judeoeconomic system (who are simply placing the money of others at risk), or that of pensioners promoting a Citizen’s Bribe to “esoteric radical rightist” geezers online.
Like anything else preparation take time. We – genuine white nationalists – must begin preparations now rather than continue wasting time “hammering out” details of esoteric trivia or promoting the tacit nonsense many fools here call “ideas.” Much of the theoretical and practical work toward implementing intentional communities and alternative socioeconomics is complete and has been implemented by others. The major difference between those others and us is they don’t call themselves “white nationalists.” 45
Posted by James Bowery on Tue, 08 Sep 2009 03:45 | # GT’s failure to answer my direct question to him regarding his accusations of others evidences that bad intelligence is guiding him. 46
Posted by GenoType on Tue, 08 Sep 2009 03:57 | #
Please do as I asked - test your model against foreclosure data from 2000-2006 - and post the results. Thank you. 47
Posted by James Bowery on Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:25 | # As previously stated: playing out in some kind of endgame with very pure, noise-free system dynamics exhibited in the prime foreclosure curve Now, I have been quite patient with your continual sniping about “geezergelt” seeking on the part of unspecified individuals around MR—but presumably those to whom you are directing your comments, although I suppose you would think it “narcissistic” of me to think that your comments to my posts indicting them for “geezergelt” seeking would in any way apply to me. Moreover, I have been one of the more vocal supporters of pseudonymity given the manifest retributions that have been experienced by those like myself who have chosen to be open about our identities. However, there are limits. If you continually libel of people whose identities are known and who are not reasonably thought of as “public figures”, you forfeit any ethical claim to your pseudonymous status. As I am not seeking office in either governmental nor nongovernmental organizations, it is rather a stretch to think of me as a “public figure” Either substantiate your accusations of “geezergelt” seeking or retract them with the same persistence you have promoted them. 48
Posted by Q on Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:36 | #
None of which Geno Freak has ever accomplished. His microcommunitiy proposal has never left the drawing board and probably never will. GF is allot like the negoes I work with in the sence that they do a lot of talkin’, but very little doin’. You see, GF’s crowning intellectual achievement is an unoriginal idea he himself has yet to translate into any real world applications. But that doesn’t restrain him from acting like a pretentious asshole. No, Geno Freak, the dumpster diving “advance thinker” has the audacity to criticize others’ ideas when in fact he lacks any bonafides himself. 49
Posted by James Bowery on Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:22 | # We’re going to be hearing a lot more stories like this:
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Posted by torgrim on Wed, 09 Sep 2009 06:35 | # From above linked article; “Others think the banks may be skeptical that these modifications are actually going to work.” Ya think! In the northern part of California, btw, the last livable part, the banks are actually just sitting on properties, empty, some with the “owners” ie. mortgage holders, still living in the house, some making no payments, some just empty. The majority of work for the construction trades today comes from repairs,and completions of partially finishes homes, etc. There is a lot to be liquidated before a leveling off happens in the housing sector of the economy. There are sales, but at fire sale prices. 51
Posted by GenoType on Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:45 | # The Mortgage Banking Association, which represents the real estate finance industry and publishes The National Delinquency Survey, has a vested interest in skewing data: About the MBA’s Quarterly National Delinquency Survey “The National Delinquency Survey is one of the most recognized sources for residential mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates. Based on a sample of more than 44 million mortgage loans serviced by mortgage companies, commercial banks, thrifts, credit unions and others, NDS provides quarterly delinquency and foreclosure statistics at the national, regional and state levels.” “MBA is the voice of the real estate finance industry. We work to clarify issues, preserve policies and protect the interests of our members by staying in close communication with Congress, the Administration, state and local officials and regulatory bodies, as well as the general public.” Exploring the nature of this interest and the validity of MBA’s published data is not in the interest of condescending, glad handing blightwing marketeurs of pseudo-scientific “ideas.” “It looks bad,” says the pensioner ignorant of the big picture. “Yes it does,” says the astute self-marketeur, “and this is where it’s going.” “I should listen to this guy,” thinks the pensioner, “‘cause he’s sharp (much sharper than me) and validates much of my politicoeconomic thinking). Hmmm, does he publish a newsletter?” We live in an age of mathematical extrapolation. Equations needn’t conform to observation. Where predictions fail new equations are devised to “explain” the failure. Patchwork theorizing Big Bang-style. Intellectual intimidation via esoteric language coupled to classist smirks, winks, and armchair LuLz take care of the rest. This is not a part of the White race I would preserve. 52
Posted by GenoType on Thu, 10 Sep 2009 15:22 | #
This is not Rocket Science, despite the noise surrounding “fire sale prices” and the tendency of “analysts” to increase “complexity.” For the past 20-30 years banks have increasingly sold mortgage loans to speculative lending institutions. Today, speculators dominate the home refinance business. This means banks fully exploited opportunities presented by the Bubble but took care to divest before the Burst. To the banker’s mind, better a “homeowner’s” loss of equity in his mortgaged property than a loss of principal and interest to the bank. 53
Posted by Dasein on Thu, 10 Sep 2009 16:41 | # GenoType, are you familiar with the work of Harold Covington? I’ve been reading some of his stuff (from the Northwest quartet) and listened to an interview he gave. He says a lot of the things you do. 54
Posted by James Bowery on Thu, 10 Sep 2009 18:38 | # This is getting ridiculous. Does anyone know why GT is obsessing over the possibility that old white folks might send money to me? This is getting to the point that it seems like there is some sort of hidden agenda. What is the objective of this? At first I thought he might be getting fed disinformation, but now it looks more like a lack of information combined with a hidden agenda. The only thing I can come up with is that he is something like an SPLC or ADL operative who is paid to make sure no money goes to their enemies—enemies they suspect might be financed by people who are having the equivalent of deathbed awakenings—enemies who they can’t imagine would be going through hardship out of passion and commitment—all while the operative despoils the important niche of self-sufficiency both as a cover and as lightning rod. These organizations certainly would be aware of the fact if there were a large number of these death-bed awakenings going on. Its their job to keep tabs on these trends. And it is easy for me to imagine people facing eternity and realizing they had been fed their grandchildren by a system that went south on their watch. What would the SPLC and ADL do in response?
55
Posted by Dasein on Thu, 10 Sep 2009 19:23 | # Just to be clear, the attacks on James by GT, which I also don’t understand, are not what reminds me of Covington. It was some of the themes that Covington focuses on in his writing and things he said during his interview. Interview: http://www.northwestfront.org/hac-interview-prothink.mp3 Northwest Front homepage: http://www.northwestfront.org/ At the moment, I am reading ‘A Might Fortress’. IMO, it’s better than ‘The Turner Diaries’. 56
Posted by Q on Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:14 | # James & torgrim, Gerald Celente is one of the most notable and preeminent trend forecasters around today. He predicts “The Mother of all Bubbles” - “the bailout bubble” - is coming down upon us. See for yourself:
57
Posted by torgrim on Thu, 10 Sep 2009 22:18 | # Thanks Q, for the referral to Gerald Celente. The reason Mr. Celente cannot pinpoint a date for the next Bubble to burst is because the Fed/Gov’t can and have done many things to hold this all together in the past, ie., Silver devaluation in the early 80’s, constriction of M1 and M2 of the money supply, to stop near hyper-inflation, 1980-85, the prime rate was at 14% for at least three years, and many less drastic measures, until the present. 58
Posted by torgrim on Thu, 10 Sep 2009 22:36 | # GT, said; So the bankers have dumped the debt onto the public via the Bailout. The public gets to pay for this two ways, by loss of equity in homes, and eventually higher taxes. So the way I see your point you are making now, you seem to agree with what James is suggesting? 59
Posted by GenoType on Fri, 11 Sep 2009 05:56 | #
Libel one moment, a possibility the next. Is Bowery soliciting geezergelt? That is still the question.
An objection to the conning of elderly fools has nothing to do with it. Obviously it must have something to do with the non-movement’s eternal Dialing for Dollars competition where two or more sharks in a puddle of pond compete for the limited supply of green. Or it could be I am an SPLC/ADL operative with links to Hal Turner and Harold Covington. Boo! Behind the scenes our classist easy money crowd is asking, “So what if Bowery is soliciting geezergelt?” After all, what’s a little green ‘tween Jimbo and the geeze? He’s deserving, right? The non-movement has little sense of right and wrong, despite propaganda to the contrary. Folks, rather than obfuscate the narcissistic Bowery could have re-run his Mickey Mouse Model and posted the results. It would have taken less time than all his replies and have been far more impressive to both his Esoteric Radical Rightist Fan Club and laymen alike. Unless, of course, his model doesn’t predict poop.
Would you rather lose equity or your home? The first, you say? Good. You as a mortgagee have much in common with the bank. They, too, would rather you “suffer” a loss of equity in your home than lose it altogether. For you to lose it altogether would mean a loss of mortgage payments to the bank. The home would go on the market, depress housing prices further due to an increase in supply, is unlikely to sell for a good long while and if sold, would sell for a lower price than it was worth when last mortgaged. Ergo, the bank loses money in the long run. Comprehend e, Senor? No, I do not agree with James. There will be no “disaster” in 2012 - merely a continuation of a gradual downward spiral for northern Brazilia. Y’all will get used to it in time, just as you have with everything else. I guarantee it! 60
Posted by James Bowery on Fri, 11 Sep 2009 07:00 | # GT weasels: Libel one moment, a possibility the next. Is Bowery soliciting geezergelt? That is still the question. The libel is the insinuation that I might be bilking the infirm out of their money—a clear implication that anyone can see made repeatedly in GT’s statements. The possibility is that I might actually be getting money. Neither assertion is true. But let’s be clear: It was never the question. GT never asked that question. He merely presumed that I was soliciting. Moreover he insinuated I was soliciting in a dishonorable manner. Now he is insinuating that any solicitation at all is dishonorable. When I offered my programming services for $8/hour it was hardly an attempt to bilk people out of money. If there was a hidden agenda, it was to contrast my resume with my demanded compensation as evidence of what is happening to much of my cohort. Yes, I know this exposes me to ridicule but I can take it a lot better than most precisely because of my resume. The fact remains: This is an ongoing, nearly obsessive effort by GT focused on making sure I get no money despite the fact that there is no evidence that I have been receiving money. This fits the model of a carpet bombing attack by money-obsessed minds. I still think he’s behaving in a way that is more consistent with a hidden agenda and I have not come up with anything better than my prior “paranoia” about money-obsessed minds like those at the SPLC and ADL. I don’t buy Q’s theory that GT is merely a psychopath. 61
Posted by Captainchaos on Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:28 | # After the revolution when all the “classists” have been liquidated we can mint a new currency with Bowery’s face on it and call the notes Bowery Bucks. A fair compromise, I think. (for lemmings: sarcasm warning) 62
Posted by James Bowery on Tue, 27 Jul 2010 21:12 | # Does anyone have more recent data on the monthly prime foreclosures reported by the Mortgage Bankers? The Financial Times reports the last 2 months have been particularly bad. Foreclosures jump among prime US borrowers By Suzanne Kapner in New York Published: July 27 2010 03:15 | Last updated: July 27 2010 03:15 Credit-worthy borrowers with straightforward mortgages are entering foreclosure at a record pace, according to a report released on Tuesday by Lender Processing Services, which tracks and analyses mortgages. Foreclosure rates among “agency prime” loans, which conform to guidelines set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage finance companies, have jumped 425 per cent since January 2008, with a particular acceleration in the last two months, LPS said. 63
Posted by adorno on Sat, 14 May 2011 19:23 | # Of course by looking at the wages and productivity chart, it’s very apparent that capital has been screwing us all, while the working class has been getting the shaft. When are we all going to stand up and demand what is rightfully ours? Post a comment:
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Posted by Euro on Thu, 03 Sep 2009 20:26 | #
What do you think of this analogy for what has happened to our economy,James?
These past 20 years have been like a long bus ride into the middle of a desert without food or water, with the driver all along telling us that, no, we are not heading into a desert but traveling along a long stretch of beach that leads to an ocean with palm trees and swimming pools, we just can’t see the water yet.
All along the way the skeptics look out the window and say, “We’re going the wrong way,” and, “Shouldn’t we turn around or at least stop to pick up drinking water in case you’re wrong?”
“Stop being so negative,” yells the driver over his shoulder. “You don’t understand neo-classical geography.”
Meanwhile, the rest of the passengers in the bus sit watching Survivor on portable DVD players or reading about Britney Spears’s hairstylist in The National Enquirer.
One day the bus runs out of gas. The driver gets out, looks around and says, “How about that. Here we are in the middle of the desert without food or water. Who could have known?”
He pulls out a cell phone and shortly a helicopter rescues him and his friends, leaving everyone else behind to fend for themselves.
From the site itulip.com.