Ron Paul Campaign Predicted in 1982—Now: Blind Poll Canvassing (Click here for the audio reading of this story.) Now Is the Time
Now is the time. If my ability in 1982, to predict the Internet-based Ron Paul phenomenon, counts for anything today, then let it count for this: Blind Poll CanvassingThe Ron Paul campaign must focus on a strategy of “blind poll canvassing” to efficiently utilize its greatest strength: dedicated volunteers. This can be accomplished in 3 steps:
The Rationale for Blind Poll Canvassing Blind Poll Canvassing What this means is construct a scientifically unbiased blind poll (see below) and use it to conduct phone canvassing of general voters to see which of them would be likely to vote Republican if they knew the positions of the candidates. This combines a scientific blind poll with phone canvassing to “get out the vote”. Let’s first note a point about the Zogby poll for how not to do a blind poll: Since likely Republican voters are known by pollsters to care more about immigration than the war, Zogby’s omission of immigration from the candidates’ positions must be taken to mean Zogby doesn’t have the first idea about constructing unbiased blind polls. Moreover, the astounding performance of Ron Paul among general voters isn’t at all surprising to those who follow the prediction markets like intrade.com where people put their money where their mouths are. How can we construct an unbiased blind poll which, with as few questions as practical so as to efficiently use volunteer and voter phone time, identifies voters likely to vote for Ron Paul in the primary if they were fully informed, and use it to turn potential votes for Ron Paul in the general election into actual votes for Ron Paul in the primary? Construction of Scientifically Unbiased Efficient Political Survey The two requirements of the blind poll questionnaire are that it be “scientifically unbiased” and “efficient” so that phone time is minimized. What this means is that the questionnaire must contain few questions that get right to the heart of the political zeitgeist. With all the money invested in social and political science research, we are entitled to expect that such a questionnaire already exists. The problem is that, like most “entitlements” these days, they seem to have fallen into the wrong hands. So we have to achieve, in days, what social and political scientists with the power of Western Civilization’s academe failed to do in decades. It is possible by setting up a tournament with a nonrefundable entry fee of $X, awarding a first prize of $Y*8, second prize of $Y*4, third prize of $Y*2, and fourth prize of $Y, where X is sufficient to deter casual players from participating and Y is sufficient to motivate most serious “experts”. The daily elimination rounds are conducted as follows:
Since the questionnaire is provably unbiased, it can be paid for through a 501c3 non-profit which can, unlike the political campaign, receive unlimited contributions from around the world, including donations of time from Ron Paul volunteers who would perform phone surveys, as well as money from the Ron Paul campaign itself, which would spend money much more wisely on this strategy than an equivalent investment in mass media advertising. Since the pruning is exponential, decreasing contestants by 1/2 every day, there can be a large number of contestants and a large number of questions winnowed down in days. Comments:2
Posted by James Bowery on Sat, 24 Nov 2007 09:24 | # Well I’ve just been informed that John Zogby is a Lebanese Catholic which goes a long way toward explaining his desire to keep immigration out of his questionnaires. 3
Posted by Fred Scrooby on Sat, 24 Nov 2007 16:08 | #
(Hat tip) 5
Posted by Marge on Tue, 18 Dec 2007 02:18 | # See this for more comments on polling and Ron Paul: http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2007/12/17/ron-paulâs-âmoney-bombâ/
The idea of a scientific polling instrument appeals to me a lot; I spent several hours doing phoning in my state campaign office and didn’t go back on subsequent days specifically because I felt the calls weren’t worth the effort—on the day I was there, the calls were not for advocating but for feeling out potential Ron Paul supporters. 6
Posted by James Bowery on Tue, 18 Dec 2007 02:25 | # I’m unclear as to whether it would be Ron Paul people who would construct the blind poll It would not. The contest for creating the blind poll is rigorously unbiased and incisive. if so, why the other candidates would be interested in participating, since its purpose is to give RP a fairer polling experience. Short answer: Self-deception. Long answer: The purpose is to give a fairer electoral experience for all candidates via get out the vote canvassing using a new, more powerful and more rigorously unbiased and incisive tool. The other campaigns might not participate directly, but their supporters would since the vast majority of them believe their candidate would win if given a fair chance. Moreover, professional political scientists would virtually have to participate in the contest and support its outcome lest they be perceived as the equivalent of intellectual cowards. 7
Posted by stock market on Sat, 18 Oct 2008 16:30 | # I wish Ron Paul won, he was the only one discussing monetary reform and that is what caused this entire mess. 8
Posted by jessica on Tue, 23 Dec 2008 15:05 | # What a delight to hear from you and to see those precious pictures.I am very much interested in reading science related articles.My heartfelt Thanks ... this is all really enormously useful stuff. 9
Posted by Fred Scrooby on Tue, 23 Dec 2008 15:55 | # You know your blog’s readership must be pretty big when spammers for window treatment businesses start using it for publicity. That’s Martha Stewart stuff — we must be reaching a broader audience than even our wildest optimists suspected. Post a comment:
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Posted by Fred Scrooby on Fri, 23 Nov 2007 21:52 | #
Or he’s bought, and whoever commissioned this poll wanted ... (how to put this? ...) “wanted a particular result,” so to speak? ... And Ron Paul wasn’t the “result” they wanted? ... (did I say that right? ...).
Yes I know some years ago ByZOG had a reputation for being honest and accurate, but ... well ... times have changed and “everyone has his price,” or so they say.
The rest of the entry: brilliant.