Posted by Rick on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 15:13 | #

My assumption is that the existing power structure is a kleptocracy dominated by bankers.
My prediction is that the existing power configuration will become unstable and collapse.

There will probably be riots and even famines.

It would be nice if a lot of secrets leaked out, but it would not be necessary for the destruction of the status quo.

As the USA declines in power, China will initially attempt to fill the power vacuum; India may have a better chance at leadership several decades from now.

Posted by Rollory on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 16:32 | #

1) The sexual dynamic: in the modern west, most particularly in the Anglosphere, the state - as represented by divorce law and the manner in which the judicial system enforces it, as well as apparently well-meaning support for “unfortunate” single mothers - is dedicated to destroying marriage and families, encouraging women to destroy the men who should be protecting them.  The application of these policies to the black American lower class has produced clear and unambiguous results.  Around the time those results were becoming clear - about a generation ago, and a generation after the beginning of the “government aid” to the blacks - similar policies were being applied to the white middle class.  Family disfunction is proceeding as one might expect, on a much broader scale.  From what I understand, the process is more advanced in England than in the USA.  Within a generation, in neither country will the broader white population be capable of maintaining the society their grandfathers had.

2) Economic: The USA’s GDP has, as ably documented by Karl Denninger, remained roughly constant only by having a tremendous infusion of government spending, replacing disappearing private economic activity.  This spending is premised on “borrowing” money from the rest of the world - although it is money that will never be paid back.  Even if the rest of the world wanted to continue paying this tribute, they will soon simply not have the funds for it.  There are plenty of prior historical cases regarding debt-to-GDP ratios and the political instability that ensues once it passes a certain level.  One way or another, within the next ten years, possibly within the next five, the USA will find itself unable to borrow as much money as it would like to, and be unable to pay one or more of 1) national debt interest payments, 2) “entitlement” programs, 3) government employee paychecks.  Any one of those would cause a political earthquake that the current system could not survive.  The longer this point is put off, the worse and harder will be the stop at the end.  Predicting what happens after that point is impossible; a least-damage scenario would be an Argentine or Soviet style collapse that is primarily economic. 

Meanwhile the big 4 American banks are still insolvent, as they have been for the past 3 years, and the longer this is papered over the worse here too the damage will be when it finally is admitted.  There is talk of China as the savior, by people who ignore the cities full of empty buildings there; when that bubble pops it is going to cause even more damage - it may be the trigger for a worldwide event.

3) Societal: It is not possible for any police force to maintain any sort of order without the trust and cooperation of the majority of the citizens.  As ethnic enclaves grow, society becomes fragmented, people lose trust in the overall web of society and stop contributing in the various little ways that keep it all going.  Here too things are more advanced in England and in certain other parts of Europe than in the USA, but it’s all proceeding forward.  Mexico is a bit of a glimpse at what we might expect - fifteen thousand dead to gunfire last year (although I have seen projections of casualty rates approaching thirty thousand for this year).  That is the sort of situation that forces those who wish to live to act on that value.  The power of the state is built on taxation and the willing cooperation of the broad population; this will not continue.  Black market (non-taxed) labor of the sort that was common in Eastern Europe under the Soviets will become common.

4) Demographics: Too many old people, everywhere; not enough kids.  Even in the third world, but particularly among all the more productive populations.  This works in concerts with other trends; it will intensify and worsen the stresses on the system, and make recovery from crisis-triggering events much harder. 

Sir John Glubb’s article, and Gibbon’s Decline and Fall, have a lot to say that is relevant.  The pattern is clear.  Considering the British Empire and the USA as part of a single political/cultural entity, as we do the Roman Republic and Empire, it becomes much clearer that we’re on schedule for the final collapse in the near future.

In general the pattern of Western civilization, including its suicidal aspects, has been set and maintained because of the broad acceptance of key elements of that civilization by the Western populations, even when some of those elements are self-destructive over the long term.  People don’t want immigration, but they don’t want to go any farther than politely asking politicians to consider their opinions on the matter, and for most of them watching American Idol or X’s Got Talent is a use of time they consider more worthwhile.  It’s a sort of prisoner’s dilemma; there is no sense of common bonds or of the value of sacrificing personally for those common bonds - and in most cases that absence of such sentiment is correct.  The national populations are atomized, falling apart, people are not on anybody else’s side because of the sense that nobody is on their side. 

It will continue, until it stops.

Posted by Drifter on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 16:49 | #

There a lot of social collapse assumptions. This isn’t going to happen until petroleum is too expensive to allocate to anything except the most dire military emergency. Oil and gas would have to be in such a state of reserve that fuel cannot be spared for policing domestic civil disturbances.

Only if we get this far post peak oil will widespread non-sanctioned social changes be viable.

Posted by James Bowery on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 17:13 | #

Rollory, that is one of the more comprehensive outlines of the phenomena underlying the coming collapse that I’ve seen.

Without denying any of the coincident phenomena you posit, doesn’t it seem too coincidental?  Do you have any ideas as to the system dynamics of these phenomena that might help simplify our causal model of the collapse?

Is the article by Sir John Glubb to which you refer ‘The Fate of Empires’ or ‘Search for Survival’?

The tautology “It will continue until it stops.” obviously refers to some kind of inevitable terminal state.  I take it, then, that you are in the “inevitablism” camp.

PS:  Thanks for an enjoyable read that brings out the dimensions that need to be incorporated into a rational model.

Posted by James Bowery on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 17:24 | #

Drifter, one of the primary dynamics of fourth generation warfare is provoking the current regime in such a way that its countermeasures turn the populace against the regime.  Wouldn’t this dynamic start to dominate well before the oil completely runs out? 

While it is true that simply wiping out entire populations is a way for regimes to deal with fourth generation warfare in a collapse scenario, it does seem that in current circumstances, even if the regime preemptively cuts off petroleum supplies to the population targeted for annihilation, that they have two major difficulties to contend with:

1) The time after cut-off but before energy has been depleted from the population’s more localized reserves is very dangerous since the population would still have operational vehicles, weapons and food for at least a few months.

2) Military threat fro foreign powers that rely on land-hungry populations with a male surplus.  An obvious example would be China.  Would the WMD stockpiles of the Western elites be sufficient to destroy such threats despite the fact that they have reduced if not eliminated their own populations?

Posted by Mycroft Holmes on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 18:02 | #

If things continue as they are and there are no unforseen events to derail the process then to see what will happen you need to look back at what happened to Haiti or more recently Zimbabwe.

On current trends in around 40 years the EU/US gradualy becomes more like Brazil or Zimbabwe and will be a place for China/Japan/Korea to use for resources/labour/living space.

Posted by Rollory on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 19:10 | #

Sorry, I meant “Fate of Empires”.  I haven’t read the other.  I was told it wasn’t nearly as good as “Fate”.

The broad trends are inevitable.  I do think there are key moments from time to time when the right individual in the right place can make a huge difference, but one of the prerequisites for that is getting rid of the overaching structure of the current system - by its very nature, it tries as hard as it can to _prevent_ individuals from having such impact.  Therefore the course that system takes is indeed inevitable.  What happens afterward is not.

As for it all being coincidental or not, I have as yet no decided opinion.  It does look to me like similar things have happened before in the fading days of previous cultures; it also seems that it is happening at an accelerated pace and more “all at once” this time around.  I can imagine a number of different possibilities for why that might be, but history isn’t easy to run experiments on.

Mycroft - no, definitely not.  This is part of the demographic situation - all of those countries you mention have even more strongly inverted demographic pyramids than the West.  In 20-30 years they’re going to be desperate for people.

Posted by Rollory on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 19:14 | #

For clarity’s sake, I meant the Asian nations.  Although Brazil is turning pretty strongly feminist/liberal in its social policy too.  Zimbabwe and similar places will simply follow the fortunes of whites willing and able to sell food to them.

Posted by Bill on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 19:25 | #

This sucker’s going down.  (Sorry couldn’t resist it)

Never forget, this conversation is taking place only within the bubble of the Internet by no more than, (I estimate) 2% of the population.  (If that)

The mass of the population is totally unaware of what’s going on, not even the vaguest notion.

The welfare state and the grip of the media see to that.

The combination of scenarios available to us in addressing this question are limitless, but here’s my quick contribution of how I see things.

In Britain, I think the political system will be the first thing to buckle, and when it does, all bets are off.

We have reached the point where the failing (corrupt) party political system has run its course, there’s no place else to run.  When the permutations of available party coalitions have run their course - the end of life as we have known it, is nigh.  How long will this take?  Not long I think.

What then?

Perhaps an all party emergency government will be formed, or perhaps the EU will step in and take over, or perhaps a strong figure will emerge and form some semblance of order, who knows?

The people will not rebel (I’m not sure they ever will) until the entitlements run out, or the wealth (not money)  The elites know exactly how much slack to cut the populace, but when the food or energy supplies hits the buffers, then again, all bets are off.

The welfare state seems secure at the moment, as does the grip of the media, without which the whole system would cave.  Though there’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip.

In addition, the power elites have embarked on a draconian austerity programme which seems insane to me. Talk about the straw that breaks the camel’s back.  Are they looking for a scrap?

When the plates stop spinning it will be immediate, no warning, just like the subprime business.  All the wise talking heads, media pundits, will not have seen it coming.  Jeeze!  You’ve got to laugh.

Europe is broke - even more grist to the mill.

Today’s Telegraph.Deepening crisis traps America’s have-nots  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8249181/Deepening-crisis-traps-Americas-have-nots.html

Posted by Jawake on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 19:42 | #

More on this later:

But I suspect the collapse is already happening. It is not necessarily about famines, locusts and global warming and peak oil (the latter being scientifically dubious theories).

Rather, it is about extreme change and transformation of societies, cultures, and individual psychology.

The collapse is coming on a massive scale because it has already happened to many of us. We have personally collapsed because we no longer believe in the narrative we were given and have set about on a long, metaphysical journey to restructure ourselves in order so that our lives have meaning.

When this happens on a massive scale-and I believe it is- we have collapsed as a society and are left no alternative but to set out to build a new culture and a new system.

As for politics, it is also already happening in the West and the United States. There is no longer a “consensus”  that we can take comfort in non-violent political change. In the U.S., Americans on the left and right cannot accept the validity of the other being elected, and seem to want to fight it out in the streets.

If this sentiment increases and begins to happen more often, this will perhaps eventuate in some kind of civil war and then a dictatorship fostered upon us by the elite.  But it will most likely be an unskilled and crude (leftist) authoritarianism as very few of this class will be drawn from the Freemasons-once the secret elite of revolution- who at least have a longer view of human history and some principles to guide them.

Posted by marlowe on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 22:56 | #

Bill:  (I estimate) 2% of the population

Always that meddlesom 2%

Posted by Thunder on Tue, 11 Jan 2011 04:00 | #

Jawake:
But I suspect the collapse is already happening. It is not necessarily about famines, locusts and global warming and peak oil (the latter being scientifically dubious theories).

Without knowing exactly what you mean by peak oil I am inclined to think you wrong about the oil (but right about the climate).  I think Jim Puplava at Financial Sense has covered peak oil best.  Nicole Foss is another in that camp and for my part I am inclined to follow her advice about the nature of the collapse and its timing—financial first in the form of deflation, then later an energy shortage resulting in greater localization, social strife…very hard times.

Count on it and plan for it.  Hope for the best.

Posted by James Bowery on Tue, 11 Jan 2011 08:15 | #

Jawake wrote: “The collapse is coming on a massive scale because it has already happened to many of us. We have personally collapsed because we no longer believe in the narrative we were given and have set about on a long, metaphysical journey to restructure ourselves in order so that our lives have meaning. ”

How does this differ from what happened during the West’s transition from Christianity to Holocaustianity, also known as “the counter culture”?  Do you define that as a collapse as well?

BTW: This news seems ineffably relevant:

Proposals to increase Tricare fees will pit Mr. Gates against those in Congress — and veterans’ groups — who say retired military personnel already have paid up front with service in uniform. Ten years ago, health care cost the Pentagon $19 billion; today, it tops $50 billion; five years from now it is projected to cost $65 billion.

Help me out here…

Posted by XPWA on Tue, 11 Jan 2011 23:45 | #

Help me out here…

DoD Secretary Gates is proposing to increase the annual Tricare Prime HMO premium for military retirees and their families.  This premium is currently set by Congress at $460 per year.  Other fine print in Gates’ program proposes increasing outpatient co-pays (currently $12 per provider visit) and inpatient co-pays (now $11/day). 

And there has been other talk about requiring greater use of post-retirement civilian employer insurance by those retirees having such insurance available.

It won’t take much until a $1,000 per family per year result is obtained. 

This is a good case study in how the “elites” have and will approach these “Peak” problems, in this case peak military retirement medical benefits.  They diddle with various terms in the equation.  No one change produces breaking point resistance.  To make an increase from $460 to $600 is not unreasonable.  Nor is doubling a copay from $12 to $24. 

But once they’re added together a profound result is swiftly obtained.

Posted by XPWA on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 03:15 | #

they have been eagerly anticipating collapse as an opportunity to recover their nations.

Is this what happened when the Western Roman Empire collapsed?  How many instances were there of the local populations regenerating independent “national” societies more or less spontaneously?  Wasn’t it true that in nearly all cases the successor governments were composed of recent invaders with the indigenous population merely being transferred as subjects?

The collapse of the USSR offers a more recent model, and one that is more applicable to an industrialized state.  The problem is that whites in “America” have no remaining roots,  identity or internal unity apart from the existing regime.

The general idea is that when the collapse comes, then national spirit will arise out of the chaos.  Sometimes this restoration is seen as contingent on there being appropriate leadership and sometimes it is seen as ”inevitable”.  If “inevitable” then we can all take comfort despite the lack of anything approaching a viable nationalist organization anywhere in the West.

This strikes me as just a hopeful rationalization in the absence of anything real.

If leader-dependent then things get more interesting.

I can very easily see Mexican drug cartels emerging as de facto governments in a northern tier of failed Mexican states and adjacent border zones now nominally part of the USA.  Is there a counter argument that retirement communities of old white geezers in wheel chairs, walkers and dragging O2 tanks to support their emphysema will face down such groups? 

And when confrontation reaches a critical point what are the Jewish dominated power centers in NYC and Washington likely to do?  What are they doing right now?  It seems most probable they will strike a deal - at white expense - to recognize de facto Mestizo narco-gangster governments as de jure,  provided that these governments pledge ultimate allegiance to Jewish interests.  The is what imperial Roman rulers often did during the end stages of Empire.

I’m interested in the commentariat’s opinion on the likelihood of collapse.  If likely then I’m interested in the timing of its stages and the structure of those stages.

The timing of successive events seems to me to be the critical issue here.  They need to come at a sufficiently fast pace and on a sufficiently large scale to prevent the regime from adjusting to them.  Then we can contemplate “collapse”.  Otherwise it’s just evolutionary change. 

In the presence of contracting demographics we can observe that rapidly contracting economic opportunity alone is insufficient to spark any sort of revolt among young people.  Young people have been far harder hit by the on going economic crisis.  So far their only response has been to attach themselves more firmly to the all consuming State. 

No one will be charging razor wire and machine guns with “Simon’s Malls & Hummers” as their battle cries.

Within the realm of energy and fuels so-called “peak oil” is also clearly not going to be a collapse trigger.  We are nowhere close to peak shale oil, peak heavy oil, peak tar sands, peak natural gas, peak coal, peak peat, peak biomass or peak uranium, thorium & plutonium.  The energy shock would have to be sufficiently large and sudden to threaten commercial food production.  This is unlikely to occur in the absence of a vast war or a deus ex machina event like an asteroid strike or super volcano eruption.

Posted by Jawake on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 04:48 | #

To answer James Bowery:

Yes, the transformation from Christianity to Holocaust liberalism was a collapse of the highest order. Not only did WWI and WWII destroy the two strongest traditional/martial cultures in the world, they sought to transform them after their cities were burned to the ground, and succeeded.

Take Germany and Japan as symbols of that transformation, the fires of Dresden and Tokyo a punishment for rebelling against the controllers and a purgation of past sins. That fire was meant for all of us, all around the world, and it has come to all of us indeed.

Much the same happened to Iraq in the symbolic acts in Abu Grahab prison. The controllers were alerting the traditionals what their futures would be: sexual humiliation and female dominance.

Those of us who are awake, already see the future and its bleakness. We already live in such depravity that it is very difficult to wake up from it. The future we see is the type of humanity they are trying to create- perverse, passive-aggressive, effeminate, clever and calculating-and we reject it within our personalities because we have met so many of these zombies walking the streets of our once loving neighborhoods.

The controllers hold the power and are pursuing their plan diligently,and their world view and ideology is one of death, despair,  and is thus,not based on the true nature of the human.

Their new world order is so empty, I am tempted to even say their ideas and their political vision are “post-collapse.”

And, perhaps, it is only now that we, the citizens of the wasteland, are beginning to get a glimpse of reality and some of us are so sickened by it, that we reject it completely.

Collapse is not a numbers game, the earth is not rejecting man, human genius will always find a way to survive.

In the end very few will be able to survive a rigorous and manly regime based on reality, spirituality and order.

The collapse has happened and it is upon us all at once.

The billions are dying and we are winning!

Posted by Drifter on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 05:12 | #

Within the realm of energy and fuels so-called “peak oil” is also clearly not going to be a collapse trigger.

It would be a key factor among a collection of factors that some others have already named. The irreconsilibility of conservative and progressive ideology is one. In America, these are the urban, coastal, self-styled cognitive elite against the Red State heartland patriot bumpkins.

A collection of many such factors playing out during the latter decades of a global industrial age is a type of trigger.

It is misleading to speak of collapse in terms of one year not in such a state and the next year, following one trigger event as a qualified state of collapse. Civilization collapse always comes as an end stage in a lifecycle. This lifecycle isn’t the temporal equivalent of a man’s 75 year life.

Our modern civilization may be doddering and senile for a full century yet. The empires of antiquity were standing in their graves for much longer.

Jawake:

When this happens on a massive scale-and I believe it is- we have collapsed as a society and are left no alternative but to set out to build a new culture and a new system.

Conservation reconciled with adaptation are the way forward.

Posted by James Bowery on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 05:43 | #

Jawake writes: “the fires of Dresden and Tokyo”

Is there a reason you refer to Tokyo and not Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

Posted by Hunter Wallace on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 11:39 | #

In 2011, the collapse of the system which George Lincoln Rockwell predicted would happen in 1969 inexplicably fails to materialize, but collapse theorists respond by putting the date off to 2012.

Posted by Rollory on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 15:03 | #

“The car’s still moving, crashing must be impossible!”

Posted by XPWA on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 15:43 | #

It (i.e. Peak Oil) would be a key factor among a collection of factors that some others have already named.

This is a highly quantified field with an abundance of public domain numbers.  There is also an abundance of viable alternate room temperature liquid fuels technologies.  Can you provide a quantified scenario here?  I admit I am highly dubious based on what I know of hydrocarbon fuels and technologies from my engineering background.

The fact that obese soccer moms have to start walking to public bus stops for shopping trips will not cause the regime to implode. 

A collection of many such factors playing out during the latter decades of a global industrial age is a type of trigger.

The present “global industrial age” is merely a vast exercise in labor arbitrage using Federal Reserve notes as the currency of exchange.

It is misleading to speak of collapse in terms of one year not in such a state and the next year, following one trigger event as a qualified state of collapse. Civilization collapse always comes as an end stage in a lifecycle. This lifecycle isn’t the temporal equivalent of a man’s 75 year life.

“Collapse” events must be highly compressed in time in order to overwhelm the potential resources of the state’s regime and thus cause it to “collapse”.  If “collapse” is spread out over 100 years then the State and its ruling elites will be able to adapt.  At that point we’re discussing evolutionary changes rather than “collapse”.  It’s irrelevant that these changes might be highly undesirable from our point of view. 

Localized catastrophic partial collapses were recurrent features during the end days of the Western Roman Empire.  The central ruling groups long survived such “collapses” even when they entailed the loss of entire provinces.  A modern analogy I previously made would be southern California, Arizona, New Mexico and parts of Texas.

In 2011, and from the point of view of almost all white northern European descended American men and women in 1912, their civilization (racial, cultural, ethnic, religious, legal, economic and technological) has already “collapsed” completely.  But at no time in that century did any particular event in that “collapse” offer a decisive trigger for stopping or reversing the process.

fyi, I do not regard the Dead Ball Era as some kind of halcyon White Golden Age we should aim to restore.  The embryonic years of the Federal Reserve System are more akin to the last days of Pompeii.

Our modern civilization may be doddering and senile for a full century yet. The empires of antiquity were standing in their graves for much longer.

I can easily agree.  This time horizon clearly argues for taking a longer term micro-survival strategy.  This can only be focused on heterosexual nuclear families as the building blocks of resilient local economic and social communities.  Such communities are also best suited to coping with more sudden “collapses” should they occur from a confluence of events.  This is clearly the best possible provision against either contingency.

Posted by XPWA on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 16:30 | #

Where does the case of “Detroit” fit into anyone’s Collapse Eschatology?  Consider:

—- Vast land areas of one of the world’s former leading industrial cities have already fallen into physical ruins.  Large tracts have already been reverted to rural conditions.  Even still occupied areas look like a bombed out German city circa 1946. 

—- The population has already fallen by 50% from 1.8 million in 1950 to 900k in 2010.

And still this has been insufficient to rouse the positive forces of white civilization from their torpor.  Even in adjacent areas of Michigan the obvious racial dimensions are taboo in public discussions of this post-WWII development.

Does this result leave any basis for presuming that a “Collapse” of unspecified larger scale will elicit some kind of autonomous white restoration movement?

Posted by James Bowery on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 17:36 | #

XPWA, perhaps it is best to view Detroit’s “bombed out” condition to be not merely analogous to the aftermath of war, but actually the aftermath of a war, albeit undeclared.  As early as 1920, Henry Ford predicted the war on Detroit:

And now the two forces, Industry and Finance, are in a struggle to see whether Finance is again to become the master, or creative Industry.

—THE DEARBORN INDEPENDENT, issue of 12 June 1920

Warfare is not evidence of collapse but of viable incorporations pursuing their agendae.

Posted by James Bowery on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 17:48 | #

The definition of “collapse” is important.  “Decay” (as in “decadence”) may precede collapse, but it is not collapse.  Collapse is catastrophic—it is discontinuous:

Clearly a society such as the United States that is less than 250 years old cannot be thought to “collapse” over the course of a hundred years.  The threshold at which “collapse”, as opposed to “decay” is applicable is an interesting question but not necessary to precisely define for most practical purposes.

In the present circumstances, I think most people view “collapse” as a dramatic world-wide devolution of sovereignty (whether those sovereignties are de facto or de jure) over a timespan of less than 50 years.

Posted by Jawake on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 19:53 | #

“the fires of Dresden and Tokyo, the nuclear immolation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”

Sorry, the imagery I had in my head while writing was firebombing.

Posted by XPWA on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 20:55 | #

As early as 1920, Henry Ford predicted the war on Detroit:

And now the two forces, Industry and Finance, are in a struggle to see whether Finance is again to become the master, or creative Industry.

The remaining negroes in Detroit are descendants of mid 20th Century negro industrial workers.  Do we count these as having been brought in by the imperatives of Federal Reserve finance, even though they actually worked at Ford’s Rouge River complex among other industrial sites? 

The definition of “collapse” is important.  “Decay” (as in “decadence”) may precede collapse, but it is not collapse.  Collapse is catastrophic—it is discontinuous:

I agree so far.

In the present circumstances, I think most people view “collapse” as a dramatic world-wide devolution of sovereignty (whether those sovereignties are de facto or de jure) over a timespan of less than 50 years.

We’re getting very close here.  “Collapse” has to be defined as a collapse of the instrumentalities available to the ruling power.  The Judeo-Communist Holodomor in the Ukraine was horrifying in scale and very compressed in time.  It certainly led to a “collapse” of the Ukrainian civil society, economy and population.  This did not however lead to a collapse of the Jewish-Communist regime that carried out this premeditated genocide against a white Christian people.

If we consider the Holodomor we can see that a far more minor event that primarily affects a subject population of consumers (i.e. a tripling of gasoline prices and a doubling of electricity prices) will not automatically cause a “collapse” of the ruling power.  In fact the increased economic disadvantage of a subject population often enhances the security of a hostile and largely alien elite group. 

Another possibility for collapse is a sufficiently strong division within a ruling elite that leads to open civil war.  Others may wish to try discern this in the existing NYC-DC-Hollywood elites.  I personally cannot see it.  Non-white GOP elites like Jew Eric Cantor (new House Majority Leader) and Negro Michael Steele (RNC Chairman) remain 100% committed to the same primary goals favored by Michael Bloomberg, Joe Lieberman and Rahm Emmanuel:  this is Jewish Zionist supremacy and white race replacement via immigration and codified anti-white and anti-white male racial discrimination remains completely intact.

Posted by XPWA on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 22:59 | #

In the present circumstances, I think most people view “collapse” as a dramatic world-wide devolution of sovereignty

It seems the first question is, what is it that presently holds sovereignty and denies the exercise of sovereignty to others?  We need an objective description of this Entity’s structure, sources of power and modes of operation.  In parallel with that we also need a clear statement of our own goals.  Then we can proceed to evaluate strengths, weaknesses and possible counter-strategies to use against said Entity.

Posted by James Bowery on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 23:15 | #

XPWA writes: “The remaining negroes in Detroit are descendants of mid 20th Century negro industrial workers.  Do we count these as having been brought in by the imperatives of Federal Reserve finance, even though they actually worked at Ford’s Rouge River complex among other industrial sites? ”

Slave labor arises in an anti-competitive climate as the insular elite becomes decadent.  It is easier for an insular elite to dumb-down jobs and throw low skill labor at a problem than it is to pursue more advanced technology.  That is to say, the insular elite ceases to be creative and comes to rely on others.

The work from which I quoted was Ford’s “The International Jew”.  Although Toynbee pointed out a general failure mode of civilizations is an insular elite that becomes decadent, and this most certainly was the case in the United States as elsewhere, a key stage in the lifecycle of Jewish virulence is the centralization of wealth and power in a dependent elite.  Preston Tucker is an exemplar in his persecution by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the interests of the established automobile manufacturers.

Posted by Drifter on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 23:25 | #

XPWA:

This is a highly quantified field with an abundance of public domain numbers.  There is also an abundance of viable alternate room temperature liquid fuels technologies.  Can you provide a quantified scenario here?

If you refer to biomass ethanols, there was a report last year about the lack of global acreage for growing to maintain present levels of equivalent hydrocarbon consumption. Maybe with 500 million humans, 90% of whom are essentially agrarian, biomass would work without obliterating the planet’s ability to support sufficient biodiversity to keep humans thriving.

The short story: there is no viable alternative to petrol and what we have is ever so gradually getting more difficult to locate, access, extract, and refine (lack of new infrastructure). The latter, not building new refining infrastructure, may in lend us a clue into industry beliefs. Last year, the IEA not only acknowledge peak for the first time, but stated it occured in 2006.

If so, this is going to have a causal impact on global economy, then local economies, reshaping society in many ways.

Posted by XPWA on Thu, 13 Jan 2011 00:07 | #

Drifter,

It’s not appropriate to convert this thread into a chemistry, physics and engineering discussion.  I’m sure you are sincere in your peak beliefs.  However…

If you refer to

I wasn’t referring to corn liquor squeezins’. 

The following chemical equation describes a decades old stable technology:

CO + 2H2 ===> CH3OH.

When you can tell me what product that equation describes and how the reactants can be obtained using three different inedible feedstocks I’ll resume this discussion.  And this is just one proven alternate path to room temperature pour ‘n drive liquid fuels.  Alternately I can provide you links to places where you can obtain some education if you desire it.

The Peakster/Anthropogenic Global Warming crew are peddling agenda-driven “science”.  It’s predetermined in ideological outcome, just like Boasian anthropology or Lysenkoist agronomy.  I’m sorry you were sold a bill of goods but that’s the way it is.  The proposition that this planet can ever run out of carbon based fuels while remaining capable of sustaining carbon-based life is a bigger scientific hoax than Holocaustianity.

XPWA

Posted by Ivan on Thu, 13 Jan 2011 00:16 | #

I do, however, sincerely hope that a comment you wrote elsewhere about the efficacy of ridicule as a means of child rearing was simply a rhetorical device.

No, no, no ... don’t get me wrong, Jimmy, and you kids out there. “Sharia polity” is against

...teachers who would
Hurt the children in any way they could
“OOF!” [someone being hit]
By pouring their derision
Upon anything we did (like writing a poem, for example)
And exposing every weakness
However carefully hidden by the kids :

The Happiest Days of our Lives

When my little girl came up with that Rubaiyat, I didn’t deride her - I took her and her twin brother to the zoo to smell the elephant and the roses.

Posted by Drifter on Thu, 13 Jan 2011 02:50 | #

XPWA:

This time horizon clearly argues for taking a longer term micro-survival strategy.  This can only be focused on heterosexual nuclear families as the building blocks of resilient local economic and social communities.  Such communities are also best suited to coping with more sudden “collapses” should they occur from a confluence of events.  This is clearly the best possible provision against either contingency.

We are on the same page:

Conservation reconciled with adaptation are the way forward.

I also agree on the central banks. They can dole out enough investment funding, emergency relief, and war cash to keep soft totalitarian modernity chugging along for quite some time. They are akin to a last redoubt and thanks to centuries of usury, their fortitude has grown immense.

Posted by Harry on Thu, 13 Jan 2011 08:24 | #

Okay I see some amazing predictions there in the comments ...

I can’t compare to them but here goes :

Looking back at history it’s obvious the collapse will happen , sometimes it takes centuries some times during 2-3 decades quite few collapse and arising happens ...

Reasons : People seeking new religion , Economic disturbance [like what the world been experiencing exceptional in the last 7-8 years] ...

Leadership : I don’t see a need for a single leadership to get the collapse going bu it deffo will appear if a collapse starts moving

Sorry if I have mistake in my writing politic is not really my field , just this post was interesting .

Posted by Wild Bill on Thu, 13 Jan 2011 16:47 | #

When gasoline gets to $7/gal and gold breaks through the magic ceiling of $5000/oz and silver begins trading at $750/oz then the most astute of our people will remember the fabulous utility of THE MULTI MACHINE.  They will harness the great though latent power of that device and put white humanity back to work.

Its all very simple.

Posted by James Bowery on Thu, 13 Jan 2011 16:54 | #

XPWA writes: “It seems the first question is, what is it that presently holds sovereignty and denies the exercise of sovereignty to others?”

Certainly a leg of this entity is the “comparative advantage” theocracy which defines security in terms of trade route stability rather than independence from trade.  To this theocracy it is heresy to suggest that “national security” be founded on national self-sufficiency because the first and foremost objective must be to avoid war in any form, including “trade war” (we don’t need to even mention individual warfare such as “duels” nowadays, do we?).  A nation that attempts to retain indigenous capabilities for the purpose of security is the moral equivalent of a family living far from any urban areas that educates their own children and “stockpiles” food, ie: “a clear and present danger”.

From this perspective the deindustrialization of America (deagriculturalization would be more difficult) was akin to confiscating a rural family’s tools, or imposing regulations on local trade (ie: FDA laws against local trade in food production) so they have to specialize.  This is real meaning of the authoritative injunction “Get a job.”  At an international level it is a demand that a nation become dependent on trade.  Independence is hate.

Posted by Jawake on Thu, 13 Jan 2011 17:50 | #

We are in an era of multiple collapses, and not decay. With decay we could at least discern an outline of what is decaying. I do not think we have that anymore, as real history has been rewritten and real historical experience has been removed from popular experience. Leftist history has filled the minds and emotions of the masses and the establishment is now attempting to make that a spiritual experience. 

The Gabrielle Giffords incident is another indication of collapse in this era of multiple collapses. It appears to be an attempt by the regime to re-establish the state and the Democrats as a semi-religious (moral) authority.

The religious terms being spread now about her eyes opening and etc. really is quite ridiculous and almost puerile. That it is being done by national leaders under the theatrics of the national media indicates how far gone, and how far collapsed we really are.

If collapse means that the government has lost its authority amongst a large segment of the population and only serves the interests of a smaller segment or an elite, the Giffords incident proves that it has already collapsed. That much of the country wants the government to reduce its size and influence proves that many believe it is not useful in their lives. For those that run the govt.-the Democrats- to resort to such tactics in order to re-establish moral legitimacy proves that this govt. serves a small, self-interested elite.

It should only be a matter of time before the overt authority of the feds breaks down. I emphasize “SHOULD” because this is not a prediction and I know many still accept that authority as legitimate, even though what I am saying here is that it is not and has already collapsed.

Posted by HelenChicago on Thu, 13 Jan 2011 21:23 | #

Que sera, sera. Whatever it is, I hope it occurs during my lifetime. Hell or high water, I’d love to see it for myself.

Posted by Erik on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 06:11 | #

A nation that attempts to retain indigenous capabilities for the purpose of security is the moral equivalent of a family living far from any urban areas that educates their own children and “stockpiles” food, ie: “a clear and present danger”.

This reminds me of North Korea.  Maybe this is why North Korea is always hyped up as “a clear and present danger” to the US.  I’ve always had a hard time believing they’re a major threat to the US though.  Perhaps this applies to Iran as well.

Posted by Jimmy Marr on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 06:44 | #

security is the moral equivalent of a family living far from any urban areas that educates their own children and “stockpiles” food, ie: “a clear and present danger”.

Aye. So, lets see what effect us can affect on US?

Posted by Sean on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 09:07 | #

Our civilizations, epochs, eras, all move as cyclically cylindrical as the seasons, to everything turns to every season, turns, a time to be born, a time to die. Time is not linear. This is going to be a time of great turning and changing. I think most rational thinkers can agree on the fact that man has become a dangerous parasite on the face of this earth. Everything about our societies has turned backwards retrogressing in a very toxic fashion. I write not only of industrial genetically modified pollution, but of our peoples morals and reason d’ etre. No longer does man care at all for his fellow men. There is no action behind the words, and it is for this reason above all others that we are doomed.

Posted by pug on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 09:55 | #

James Bowery,

The theocracy is one of “free trade,” not “comparative advantage,” and you probably know this. The old basis of classical “free trade” under comparative advantage is all but gone if unregulated: immobile capital (har-har) and mobile labour (to the extent that muds are being teleported right in, we could consider it immobile from the standpoint that matters). We don’t have trade based on comparative advantage, we have capital seeking absolute advantage through international labour arbitrage.

It is incumbent that nationalists understand this issue perfectly.

Posted by XPWA on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 17:42 | #

Certainly a leg of this entity is the “comparative advantage” theocracy which defines security in terms of trade route stability rather than independence from trade.

The old Hanseatic League offers an interesting contrast to the current WTO regime.  For most of its existence the Hansa was principally interested in the stability of the raw materials trade in the regions bordering the Baltic and North Seas.  Labor arbitrage (i.e. long distance trade in manufactured articles) was difficult to impossible.

I think we’re heading into an era when a smaller raw materials and semi-finished materials trade will resume primacy.  The major manufactured products still traded long distance are likely to be semi-conductors and “laptop” computers.

As time goes on we’re approaching the “limit” of human labor in industrial production flows.  This limit is -0-.  The future of all industrial production flows is clearly in robotics and is already arriving.  And I expect this will be at a very small scale for all “light” industry.  Already a complete plastics factory, including an automated mold machining module, could be built in a space as small as an SUV.  A semi-tractor trailer can easily mount all the equipment needed churn out an endless stream of stainless steel flatware and cookware starting from small bar stock.

What strikes me most about the current “trade routes” is their intrinsic instability.  The cost advantage of Chinese-made products (manufactured under a one-party dictatorship) doesn’t merely arise from lower labor costs, the reduced overhead resulting from unrestrained intellectual property piracy and currency rigging.  The costs of onshore EEOC, EPA & OSHA regulations, and the current civil tort laws, all operate as preferential tariffs in favor of “offshore” products.

It’s no accident that the mainly Jewish promoters of all these “tariffs” are also positioned as the factotums extracting the largest profits from “buy low sell high” trade in 3d World labor.

Sustaining this Orwellian named “Free Trade” regime is clearly requiring ever-growing government inputs. 

It is incumbent that nationalists understand this issue perfectly.

Yes.  They also need to understand what real “capital” is and how it can be obtained. 

To this theocracy it is heresy to suggest that “national security” be founded on national self-sufficiency because the first and foremost objective must be to avoid war in any form, including “trade war” .

Ultimate sovereignty in this age is defined by

1.  Fuels & energy independence.

2.  The possession a credible nuclear deterrent. 

Iran’s drive for both is its real offense in International Zionist eyes.  China otoh offers a frightening visage but no real threat.  60 days’ oceanic warfare by air, submarine and mine blockade would cause the entire Chinese economy to implode without hope of recovery.  This is due to its extreme dependence on imported oil and coal brought by sea.

We live under a series of increasingly rapacious hydraulic despotisms.

Posted by Frank on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 20:08 | #

XPWA,

don’t forget there’s also a border adjusted VAT defending China and most every other state, except of course the global buffet known as the US.

Robotics might be the future, but someone has to design and maintain the equipment. Assuming a state were able to prevent the selling off technology, it could conceivably get ahead, trading its superior products for raw materials.

The US has massive supplies of coal which could be used as expensive fuel. I dunno about Europe & other colonies.

Posted by Frank on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 20:17 | #

Reg. comparative advantage & absolute advantage,

Fletcher On Free Trade—But Not, Alas, Immigration is a good summary. Assuming Nordics are ever freed somewhere in the world, they could rebuild with tariffs. Rules protecting against the accursed freedomite ideology would be vital for long term survival. That’s not to say an Orwellian state is needed either. A realistic non-ideological approach would be needed that doesn’t view the world as fantasy-land freedomism and Orwellian unfreedomism.

Posted by James Bowery on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 21:18 | #

Pug, re comparative vs absolute advantage:

Any value stream has a net present value which means it can be treated as capital.  Conversely, any capital value has a time value, frequently called rent.  You can rent a backhoe but when a plumber comes out to fix your plumbing, you are renting him as a piece of capital equipment.  Even the operational costs, such as fuel and maintenance for the backhoe, can be treated either as rent or as capital.  Take for example diesel fuel for the backhoe.  It can be viewed as renting the petroleum infrastructure, including deposits, for a certain amount of time.

In this “economic” sense (excluding of course, “political” economy), humans are just pieces of capital equipment.  Like all capital equipment, they have a lifecycle and associated rental costs.  “In place” rental cost simply includes the rental of the relocation infrastructure. 

It is no accident that the field of political economy is dead and has been dead during the 20th century (except, of course, for Marx which by treating all value as labor essentially negates political economy by going to the opposite extreme).  When your culture is slave-based, the very idea of political economy is nonsense.  So “global labor arbitrage” is simply “global arbitrage” whether viewed as capital or as rent.

What does this do to the distinction between comparative and absolute advantage?

Posted by James Bowery on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 21:31 | #

XPWA writes: “As time goes on we’re approaching the “limit” of human labor in industrial production flows.  This limit is -0-. ”

And of course, as you are no doubt aware, this renders the example of the Hanseatic League’s emphasis on transport of unfinished goods less relevant to ultimate political economy.

“What strikes me most about the current “trade routes” is their intrinsic instability. ”

Here we see the dogma of the globalist theocracy in action.  They don’t really care about economics in terms of risk adjusted net present value.  If they did, they’d realize that investing in trade route stability is sometimes less profitable than investing in independence.  Their goal is to enslave humanity because it feels right to them and all of their economic theories are window dressing for what is essentially a theocracy whose only real god is their truly “supremacist” predilection.  Economics be damned if they can’t have slaves to boss around.  For them, removal of slavery is like removal of heterosexuality for the rest of us. But if they want to play the slave game the fact that their sexual perversion depends on there being genetic differences between themselves and those they boss around puts their semi-organism at a competitive disadvantage with semi-organisms based on genetic cohesion.  At the limit, cloning offers the opportunity for a far more effective mode of slavery as it is genetically eusocial.

“We live under a series of increasingly rapacious hydraulic despotisms.”

This points to control of ports and suppression of (or control of) piracy, as primary strategic targets to continue the regressive enslavement of humanity, does it not?

Posted by pug on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 21:48 | #

I favour a state-managed treaty-based goods for goods trade contingent upon believed-to-be-sustainable comparative advantage, which does not relinquish our nationhood nor violate our currency as the present system does. But even if we were only mindful of comparative advantage, it would, e.g., mean the realisation that the only thing China has comparative advantage over the US is silk and opium, and acting accordingly. None of this is worth it without our free and territorially sovereign people to make it worth it for, though.

Posted by Savrola on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 21:59 | #

What’s with this fixation with “sustainability? Two thousand years of beautiful tradition, from Moses to Sandy Koufax or at least from Martin Buber to Amitai Etzioni.

Posted by pug on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 22:03 | #

Savrola,

The short answer is that we’re not parasites.

Posted by XPWA on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 22:21 | #

Frank,

The US has massive supplies of coal

Yes indeed.  The USA is the Saudi Arabia of coal reserves.  And Canada is the Iraq of coal.

which could be used as expensive fuel.

I disagree.  The facts show that coal is and will be the cheaper fuel.  See these data for producer prices per million BTUs for coal, natural gas and petroleum from 1949 to 2009:

http://www.eia.gov/aer/pdf/pages/sec3_2.pdf

and

http://www.eia.gov/aer/pdf/pages/sec3_3.pdf

These come from Table 3.1 in this directory:  http://www.eia.gov/aer/finan.html

The data show that since 1979 coal has been the cheapest fuel per energy unit.  From 1949 to 1979 natural gas was the cheapest carbon fuel.  Over this entire period crude oil has always been the most expensive fuel.  At a minimum crude oil has enjoyed a price multiple of 2x and usually greater.  Crude oil’s pricing multiple over coal is currently 6x.  And natural gas is 2x.

Now what could we do with all that coal?  We can do the same thing national Germany did in the 1930s and 1940s.  This is “gasify” the coal into carbon monoxide and hydrogen and then make synthetic diesel fuel and gasoline using Fischer-Tropsch catalysis. 

This is why the Anthropogenic Global Warming hoax has had to be joined at the hip with the “Peak Oil” hoax.  Neither idea is viable alone.  They’re now a syncretistic cult combining both superstitions.

The current regime subsists by entirely creating and then arbitraging unnecessary shortages.

Posted by pug on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 22:34 | #

XPWA,

Peak oil cannot mathematically be a hoax. It is a mathematical and logical certainty.

Posted by Captainchaos on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 23:03 | #

It is excellent analysis such as the above by Bowery and XPWA which needs to be disseminated to the widest degree possible and not their crackpot pet solutions to all our racial travails: single deadly combat and microcommunities respectively.

Posted by savrola on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 23:32 | #

Pug, never mind the exception. Tell us, who decides on what constitutes “sustainability?” Maurice Strong?

Posted by pug on Fri, 14 Jan 2011 23:55 | #

Savrola,

Put shortly again, in the context I chose: rate of production, rate of consumption, time and if they’re all in our favour or not.

Posted by Erik on Sat, 15 Jan 2011 00:46 | #

Any value stream has a net present value which means it can be treated as capital.  Conversely, any capital value has a time value, frequently called rent.  You can rent a backhoe but when a plumber comes out to fix your plumbing, you are renting him as a piece of capital equipment.  Even the operational costs, such as fuel and maintenance for the backhoe, can be treated either as rent or as capital.  Take for example diesel fuel for the backhoe.  It can be viewed as renting the petroleum infrastructure, including deposits, for a certain amount of time.

In this “economic” sense (excluding of course, “political” economy), humans are just pieces of capital equipment.  Like all capital equipment, they have a lifecycle and associated rental costs.  “In place” rental cost simply includes the rental of the relocation infrastructure.

Isn’t labor prior to land and capital?  Rent of land depends on the productivity of labor.  Capital is built up by labor.  The productivity of capital depends on labor.  Even capital goods that don’t directly involve labor at all times during the production process, such as robots, require labor at some point like maintenance, programming, etc. in order to be productive.

Posted by Frank on Sat, 15 Jan 2011 02:41 | #

XPWA,

Now what could we do with all that coal?  We can do the same thing national Germany did in the 1930s and 1940s.  This is “gasify” the coal into carbon monoxide and hydrogen and then make synthetic diesel fuel and gasoline using Fischer-Tropsch catalysis.

Why isn’t this done now? My understanding is the processing adds too much cost. I’ve been told oil would have to rise much higher for coal to become cost effective.

Where have you written on micro-communities btw? I might have read it if posted here, though I’d be interested in a refresher.

I’ve also heard that the pagan groups preach forming clans / tribes as a means of survival. Granted, I don’t think this is enough on its own, but this could be a very wise choice if not abandoning those outside the immediate group.

I say that though I can imagine most such groups start out rather creepy if among internet strangers. But perhaps a more natural approach could be taken via just an extended family that continues producing many children and living nearby. Similarly, there’d be friends and neighbors nearby… Begin with family pride (incl. researching ancestry) and local community pride, and one could build naturally from there, without the kooks.

Posted by Spirit of '76 on Sat, 15 Jan 2011 17:37 | #

James,while the United States government is not, the American civilization is quite old by the standards of any society. 

The national government we call the United States is roughly 220 years old dating from the adoption of the present Constitution in 1789.  American independence is 235 years past the signing of the formal Declaration of Independence.  But the Anglo-American civilization commonly called “America” was established in the year AD1620 by the Pilgrims at Plymouth Rock, almost 400 years ago.  Others might argue for earlier colonizations, in Jamestown or the Hudson Valley, but they did not form the model or capture the public imagination as did New England’s success.

So to confuse state and civilization is to consider, for example, France a mere fifty years old, dating from the formation of the Fifth Republic, when it exists at least since Charlemagne (one of my forefathers by happy coincidence).

Similarly, it is worth considering that Puritan New England was a direct continuance of East Anglian culture, itself extremely old and essentially unchanged over time so far as we know.

As to the main question -

Will the Western governments collapse?  Will the present civilization collapse?  Speaking of the structure, probably not as the corporate shells might carry on zombie-like so long as anyone desires to propagate them. 

Liberty, on the other hand, will be severely tested.  I doubt rather much the urban areas could withstand a supply chain disruption, as we saw in the USSR at the end, for more than a few days before riots and anarchy sets in.  Suburbia will not last any longer.

Rural areas offer hope for their relative independence from technology and ruthless, exploitative business models, with a much longer time horizon than this month’s numbers or maximization of inventory turns with JIT logistics.

I see the cities continuing their slow grind into entropy no matter what happens, short of unleashing unimagined sources of free energy.  Externalities or acts of God will hasten their end, but end they will.

The rural west will continue as always.  Their model is infinitely more robust than any managed supply chain alternative so the real question would be, How can the rural producers keep what they make from hordes of staving urbanites organized into gangs?

Posted by TabuLa Raza on Sat, 15 Jan 2011 23:52 | #

“There is no longer a “consensus” that we can take comfort in non-violent political change.”

Heh.  Miss Rand gave a speech 44 years ago entitled “The wreckage of the consensus.”

You can here it here:

http://www.aynrand.org/site/PageServer?pagename=reg_ar_wreckage

Posted by James Bowery on Sun, 16 Jan 2011 04:24 | #

Spirit of ‘76, a threat presented by population structure oriented toward cities (“civilization” in my terminology) is something you acknowledge in the question “How can the rural producers keep what they make from hordes of staving urbanites organized into gangs?”  Hence the series title “Civilization Takedown”.

As for “collapse”, understand that I never mentioned “civilization” in my definition of “collapse” as rapid global devolution of sovereignty.  If you read my essay Secession from Slavery to Free Scientific Society, you’ll see that I’m not entirely against centralized sovereignty limited by an iron-clad rule to merely facilitating assortative migrations with territorial reallocation to support mutually consenting human ecologies.  This terrifies parasites because they will be exposed to empirical discovery.  That’s why they have to keep uniform global law in place that imposes their social dogmas on everyone without exception—so as to prevent any control groups from forming anywhere.  That’s why their Orwellian definition of “diversity” is to make every point in the world “look like the world” and is, in truth, global homogenization thus guaranteeing zero diversity.  Zero-tolerance for “intolerance” is, in fact, zero tolerance for diversity out of fear that differences may be in actual evidence.  The fact that this violates consent is easily dealt with:  Those who are not “persuaded” by propaganda are merely accused of “hate”.  Problem solved.

Like all theocracies they are viciously anti-science hence anti-truth.  The power of argumentation is not to be infringed by experimentation.

The problem is that in the absence of a stand-down of global sovereignty to this tightly limited role, we face utter chaos.  I’m preparing a way to route that chaos.  Others may simply want the chaos to emerge and they have their role in a world without truth and freedom.

Posted by the Narrator... on Sun, 16 Jan 2011 13:56 | #

But the Anglo-American civilization commonly called “America” was established in the year AD1620 by the Pilgrims at Plymouth Rock, almost 400 years ago.

Posted by Spirit of ‘76 on January 15, 2011, 04:37 PM

The Civil War was when,

“The Yankees invaded America.”
-Granny Clampett

.
.
.
.
As for collapse,

I think the term Breakdown may be a better description. But perspective is often limited. When we look back at the ancient Greeks we’re standing on a mountain top looking at people in a valley who don’t know whats over the next hill.
To a large extent, our Civilization has already ceased to function. The apathy that we’re seeing is simply the ability of humans to adapt to new circumstances.
In ten years the average White American will probably have to travel in packs and wear a bullet-proof vest just to go to Wal-Mart and shop for groceries. But go they will. And they’ll think nothing of it. It will be the norm, everywhere.

Imagine it like this,

In 872 AD two Italians meet along the road on the way to their homes after visiting the markets. One sees the crumbling ruins of a once glorious old Roman fort in the distance. He says to the other,  “Too bad about our civilization collapsing.” To which his friend replies, “What the f$@k are you talking about?”

Or another way of stating it is this,

Three hundred years from now historians may all agree that Western Civilization collapsed sometime around or before 1920.

In which case we now stand in the aftermath. In the post-collapse, formless gulf between civilizations.

...

Posted by Jawake on Sun, 16 Jan 2011 19:06 | #

Doing a little historical research this weekend and I came across the book[b Pearl Harbor: The Seeds and Fruits of Infamyby Percy Greaves. It led me to the little talked about German-Japanese Anti-Comintern Pact,  which I reproduce below:

German-Japanese Agreement and Supplementary Protocol, Signed at Berlin, November 25, 1936

Agreement Guarding Against the Communistic International

]The Imperial Government of Japan and the Government of Germany,

The High Contracting States will jointly invite third States whose internal peace is menaced by the disintegrating work of the Communistic International, to adopt defensive measures in the spirit of the present Agreement or to participate in the present Agreement.

It is interesting to me that even in Hans Westmar, a NS propoganda film from the 1920s making its rounds on the internet, it is the Communists who are portrayed as the primary enemy and the fundamental evil.

Posted by Francis on Mon, 17 Jan 2011 04:38 | #

“How can the rural producers keep what they make from hordes of staving urbanites organized into gangs?”

I don’t think many will make it that far.  But let’s say some try.  I think hunger, disease and inter gang disputes will kill quite a few before they even get close.  If things get this nasty, they’ll be walking, not driving.  And if things do get this nasty, I would not be surprised if bridges and roads were made impassable or very difficult to use, either by accident or on purpose.  Or that the cities themselves would be held in check.  Sarajevo comes to mind.  Of course I’m only guessing.  However, reading this posting and comments has given me another reason to buy more ammo and other things.

Posted by Karos Loron on Mon, 17 Jan 2011 09:04 | #

“How can the rural producers keep what they make from hordes of staving urbanites organized into gangs?”

Landmines and sniper rifles.

Most ghetto nogs probably don’t even know what a landmine or IED is!

Posted by James Bowery on Mon, 17 Jan 2011 18:06 | #

“hordes of staving urbanites organized into gangs”

Ever hear the phrase “community organizer”?

Posted by Zion on Wed, 19 Jan 2011 00:17 | #

Very good questions set forth; fine initial comments from Rollory (though he reaches undemonstrated conclusions); otherwise, very, very silly and hysterical thoughts, except from Narrator, who understands correctly that the modern West (say, 1492-1914 or 45) has already collapsed. The West predated its modernity, and might outlive its present turmoils. What has definitively collapsed is one regime or phase of the West; but, as Narrator again correctly recognizes, the working out of “collapse” can take place over long periods of human time.

Apocalyptic scenarios, though prevalent among the alienated, and not wholly impossible, given the extent of industrialization and real environmental limits, not to mention possibility of rapid spread of infectious disease due to human migratory mobility, are, nevertheless, not especially likely today, as the tremendous flow of information coupled with democratic political possibilities ensures that Western populations will punish those politicians seen to be allowing matters to get too out of hand (for example, US Federal debt is obviously unsustainable, which fact has already generated the Tea Partiers, and an anti-spending GOP House).

Moreover, even many “worst case scenarios” are in fact nothing of the sort. The genius of the system that has evolved in the West since the Second World War is its ability to manage decline (obviously, it should be preventing decline, and laying foundations for greatness, or at least improvement, but it does not, due to its having succumbed to self-hating, anti-nationalist ideology). If US government cannot pay all its entitlement promises, this entails starving urban mobs fighting over canned foods?! Are you serious? Do you see how political extremists make the mistake of jumping from correctly diagnosing large problems to assuming that all non-extremists must be helpless, brainwashed idiots who will immediately crumble if one aspect of the existing system cannot be continued? That view is not empirically accurate. 

“Collapse” is not the right word, except from the perspective of historical time. “Decline” is more apt.

The West is declining, both absolutely as well as relatively to other rising powers, like China and India. We are declining in population (absolutely as well as relatively); in national IQ (and when you nazis get rid of the Jews, white IQ, especially in US, will drop vertiginously - and you’ll feel the economic effects of that); in ability to pollute our own environment, as well as to acquire necessary natural resources from overseas; economically, both absolutely, due to socialistic wealth destruction, along with increase in sub- or unproductive nonwhite groups, as well as relatively, due to adoption of capitalism by China and other Third World states (which also plunder Western technologies, willingly handed to them by stupid Western corporations, and even treasonous anti-nationalist governments); morally, due to the individualistic, high time preference hedonism promulgated by liberalism; and racially, as we increase the numbers of alien elements who have no loyalty to the West, and whose only contributions are social problems, criminality, and constant threat of violent insurrection.

But there are always countervailing trends staving off instant collapse (as opposed to long term decline). The problem is the civilizational price of those trends. Example, we stupidly import Islamic filth into Western territories; we then have increased terrorist worries; this triggers greater domestic surveillance; this manages the increased terror threat from the imported Islamic vermin, but at the cost of Western peoples’ freedom of movement and personal convenience.

The larger point is that, absent cataclysmic terror attacks, or uncontainable epidemics, the West will not collapse. It will always adjust downwards its quality of life. Study Gramsci. The white peoples have deep roots of civility and competence, and these do not suddenly disappear, especially not due to economic or resource disruptions - and such in turn generate backlashes dealing with the immediate issues.

The real problem is the West sinking gradually into racial oblivion due to immigration, miscegenation, and multiculturalism (and don’t blame Jews for this please; we are not the majority; blame your own gullibility, stupidity, and ethical weakness).

Posted by Ritterkreuz on Wed, 19 Jan 2011 02:24 | #

get rid of the Jews, white IQ, especially in US, will drop vertiginously - and you’ll feel the economic effects of that

Can you do math?  There are far more Whites with high IQs than there are Jews with high IQs.

The English economy expanded greatly for centuries following the Edict of Expulsion in 1290.

The German economy expanded greatly during the 30s after removing Jewish influence from the economy.

don’t blame Jews for this please; we are not the majority; blame your own gullibility, stupidity, and ethical weakness

Then go home to Israel.  Do that, and we’ll never blame you for anything again.

Posted by Rollory on Wed, 19 Jan 2011 05:50 | #

What undemonstrated conclusions are you referring to?

And please, please, please, don’t _dictate_ what the terms of the discussion should be.  As long as you identify as Jewish first, it is not your responsibility nor your right to prevent whites from screwing themselves over in whatever manner they may choose to employ, including self-identifying as “not Jewish” if some of them so choose, no matter how sure you are that screwing themselves over is what they are doing.

Posted by Al Ross on Wed, 19 Jan 2011 08:33 | #

Germany’s post war economic strength was built on German genius, innovation and enterprise with no Jewish input at all. Herr Hitler’s response to Jewish aggression had this upside at least.

No Jews are needed for Thyssen Krupp, Daimler, BMW, Bosch, Siemens et al to prosper - and with no Jews in charge there are, pro rata population - wise, far fewer jobs outsourced (Milton Friedman style) to Asia than the sorry US number .

Posted by Zion on Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:22 | #

More Jew hatred. The substance of my lengthy comments, from which some might learn more than a few things, goes unremarked.

Posted by Frank on Wed, 19 Jan 2011 13:42 | #

“and racially, as we increase the numbers of alien elements who have no loyalty to the West, and whose only contributions are social problems, criminality, and constant threat of violent insurrection. “

Are you familiar with Sam Francis’s Eurocentrism? The new immigrants are of low quality; so assuming there are jobs for them (e.g. mowing grass, serving food, construction), a system could be fitted around them.

Manufacturing jobs are disappearing, but unskilled workers can always serve the rest of us. I don’t say this as an ideal. The ideal is a homogeneous state. But this is one possibility regardless, even if only a temporary solution.

Eurocentrism is a classic, well worth reading if you haven’t yet.

-

“imported Islamic [Semites]”

Solzhenitsyn’s Harvard Address:

Even biology knows that habitual extreme safety and well-being are not advantageous for a living organism. Today, well-being in the life of Western society has begun to reveal its pernicious mask.

Perhaps what the West needs is an open threat. Similar to how Jews have been intermarrying and producing smaller families within tolerant societies, Gentiles are ceasing to exist at present.

I don’t say that in defence of these migrants, but perhaps there’s a silver lining.

That said, Francis wrote somewhere the same as you say: the system works well to manage decline. However, nonwhite ethnic nationalism might prove greater than the system can manage.

-

“laying foundations for greatness”

Greatness isn’t really wanted. Power ought to be sought to serve something, ie. the long-term security and well-being of our people. Likewise, what you want is the same for Jews, not mere greatness.

Posted by Rollory on Wed, 19 Jan 2011 14:13 | #

“from which some might learn more than a few things”

So far, I’ve learned that you’re a pretentious blowhard, who answers a straightforward question and good advice with snobbery and insults.  Probably about 17.  I remember being very much like that at a similar age, in part because I was loose on the net for the first time and had no clue of how to interact politely with people I didn’t already know.

Posted by Frank on Wed, 19 Jan 2011 15:06 | #

Rollory,

when I first discovered the comments section in college, I was lecturing Dr. Fleming at Chronicles, lol. Obviously, I had to learn my place.

I might not agree with him fully, but he’s a real expert.

Posted by Steve Murphy on Wed, 19 Jan 2011 21:39 | #

An interesting perspective on this issue here: http://irishsavant.blogspot.com/2011/01/thoughts-on-collapse.html

Posted by Al Ross on Thu, 20 Jan 2011 00:49 | #

To be rid of Jewish IQ is to be freed from the host-hating, society - undermining Liberal/Leftist intellectual movements so brilliantly described by Kevin Macdonald and so hatefully engendered by that predatory race of ugly parasites.

It is true that without Jewish IQ and its propensity to enhance the innate Semitic criminal intellect, Aryans might not have dreamed up such marvellous financial instruments as junk bonds or bundled sub - prime mortgage packages but in that event US prisons would contain far fewer White collar criminals.