The comedy of the tragedians. Or maybe not.

Posted by Guessedworker on Wednesday, 28 May 2008 22:10.

GT sent me a link to the following Yahoo “Green” article today. It reports the lengths to which people are going now, today, to prepare for the possible effects of a post-peak collapse.

If you are living in a connurbation, and not necessarily a large one ... if you are raising children ... if you have skills likely to enhance the prospects for success at the localist level, this is something you should be taking seriously. Notwithstanding the fact that this time the ramp in energy prices is speculator-driven.
GW

ENERGY FEARS LOOMING, NEW SURVIVALISTS PREPARE

BUSKIRK, N.Y. - A few years ago, Kathleen Breault was just another suburban grandma, driving countless hours every week, stopping for lunch at McDonald’s, buying clothes at the mall, watching TV in the evenings.

That was before Breault heard an author talk about the bleak future of the world’s oil supply. Now, she’s preparing for the world as we know it to disappear.

Breault cut her driving time in half. She switched to a diet of locally grown foods near her upstate New York home and lost 70 pounds. She sliced up her credit cards, banished her television and swore off plane travel. She began relying on a wood-burning stove.

“I was panic-stricken,” the 50-year-old recalled, her voice shaking. “Devastated. Depressed. Afraid. Vulnerable. Weak. Alone. Just terrible.”

Convinced the planet’s oil supply is dwindling and the world’s economies are heading for a crash, some people around the country are moving onto homesteads, learning to live off their land, conserving fuel and, in some cases, stocking up on guns they expect to use to defend themselves and their supplies from desperate crowds of people who didn’t prepare.

The exact number of people taking such steps is impossible to determine, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the movement has been gaining momentum in the last few years.

These energy survivalists are not leading some sort of green revolution meant to save the planet. Many of them believe it is too late for that, seeing signs in soaring fuel and food prices and a faltering U.S. economy, and are largely focused on saving themselves.

Some are doing it quietly, giving few details of their preparations — afraid that revealing such information as the location of their supplies will endanger themselves and their loved ones. They envision a future in which the nation’s cities will be filled with hungry, desperate refugees forced to go looking for food, shelter and water.

“There’s going to be things that happen when people can’t get things that they need for themselves and their families,” said Lynn-Marie, who believes cities could see a rise in violence as early as 2012.

Lynn-Marie asked to be identified by her first name to protect her homestead in rural western Idaho. Many of these survivalists declined to speak to The Associated Press for similar reasons.

These survivalists believe in “peak oil,” the idea that world oil production is set to hit a high point and then decline. Scientists who support idea say the amount of oil produced in the world each year has already or will soon begin a downward slide, even amid increased demand. But many scientists say such a scenario will be avoided as other sources of energy come in to fill the void.

On the PeakOil.com Web site, where upward of 800 people gathered on recent evenings, believers engage in a debate about what kind of world awaits.

Some members argue there will be no financial crash, but a slow slide into harder times. Some believe the federal government will respond to the loss of energy security with a clampdown on personal freedoms. Others simply don’t trust that the government can maintain basic services in the face of an energy crisis.

The powers that be, they’ve determined, will be largely powerless to stop what is to come.

Determined to guard themselves from potentially harsh times ahead, Lynn-Marie and her husband have already planted an orchard of about 40 trees and built a greenhouse on their 7 1/2 acres. They have built their own irrigation system. They’ve begun to raise chickens and pigs, and they’ve learned to slaughter them.

The couple have gotten rid of their TV and instead have been reading dusty old books published in their grandparents’ era, books that explain the simpler lifestyle they are trying to revive. Lynn-Marie has been teaching herself how to make soap. Her husband, concerned about one day being unable to get medications, has been training to become an herbalist.

By 2012, they expect to power their property with solar panels, and produce their own meat, milk and vegetables. When things start to fall apart, they expect their children and grandchildren will come back home and help them work the land. She envisions a day when the family may have to decide whether to turn needy people away from their door.

“People will be unprepared,” she said. “And we can imagine marauding hordes.”

So can Peter Laskowski. Living in a woodsy area outside of Montpelier, Vt., the 57-year-old retiree has become the local constable and a deputy sheriff for his county, as well as an emergency medical technician.

“I decided there was nothing like getting the training myself to deal with insurrections, if that’s a possibility,” said the former executive recruiter.

Laskowski is taking steps similar to environmentalists: conserving fuel, consuming less, studying global warming, and relying on local produce and craftsmen. Laskowski is powering his home with solar panels and is raising fish, geese, ducks and sheep. He has planted apple and pear trees and is growing lettuce, spinach and corn.

Whenever possible, he uses his bicycle to get into town.

“I remember the oil crisis in ‘73; I remember waiting in line for gas,” Laskowski said. “If there is a disruption in the oil supply it will be very quickly elevated into a disaster.”

Breault said she hopes to someday band together with her neighbors to form a self-sufficient community. Women will always be having babies, she notes, and she imagines her skills as a midwife will always be in demand.

For now, she is readying for the more immediate work ahead: There’s a root cellar to dig, fruit trees and vegetable plots to plant. She has put a bicycle on layaway, and soon she’ll be able to bike to visit her grandkids even if there is no oil at the pump.

Whatever the shape of things yet to come, she said, she’s done what she can to prepare.

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Comments:

Posted by GT on Thu, 29 May 2008 00:21 | #

One needn’t believe in peak oil (I don’t) to see the need for alternate energy to power “hobby” farms, small manufacturing plants, and microcommunities.

Links for those who are interested:

The making of a woodgas generator:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgbAOBkoI84

Woodgas-powered truck:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSifqTsde40

Woodgas truck ready for the road:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hcThg51bng

Woodgas truck on the road:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNMQ62qbT7g

German Biomass Energy Solutions:
http://www.nrg-consultants.com/index.html

NRG Consultant’s YouTube profile:
http://www.youtube.com/user/nrgconsultant

NRG’s straw gasification power plants:
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=C73A8FE6E5D573EE

NRG’s wood gasifiers:
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=F86944F40E2C6E95

Posted by DavidL on Thu, 29 May 2008 01:49 | #

Anyone interested please checkout Bill Engdahl’s website for some interesting articles on the speculative rise
in oil prices.

http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/

Posted by bbrraap on Thu, 29 May 2008 19:36 | #

Ummm…peak oil is a reality. The only difference is the pessimists believe we already hit it, around 2003. While the optimists believe it will be arrive around 2030. In either case, we have not made appropriate inroads into alternate fuels to carry the global, industrial population.

Posted by Bill on Thu, 29 May 2008 20:57 | #

Peak Oil is rapidly becoming centre stage, I wonder how (and when) will our elites tell us like it is.

I think from the perspective of MR, we ought to be asking ourselves, what, (if at all) will PO effects be on what we are all discussing here.

Personally, I’m betting (and praying) that PO could be our saviour.

Waddya think?

Posted by snax on Thu, 29 May 2008 20:57 | #

GT, any truth in the claim that Prohibition was a result of Oil industry pressure because farmers were fuelling their vehicles with alcohol?

Posted by torgrim on Thu, 29 May 2008 21:35 | #

Bill,

“what,(if at all) will PO effects be on what we are all discussing here.”

I believe that this may be the “monkeywrench”, that throws this “Jaugernaut” off the rails, really since the demise of the “Production Economy” gone since since the early 80’s, the government has a real problem financing it’s debt structure.
This is going to change everything.

Prohibition and the Oil Industry….I remember the old men praising Ford’s model T and A and B series engines, as being able to run as a multi fuel vehicle…kerosene, alcohol and unleaded gasoline.

Posted by Guessedworker on Thu, 29 May 2008 21:47 | #

Bill,

Before you get too excited about Peak Oil read this. The point about the Tragedy of the Commons is that it leaves one possible recourse - one - open to Man: cooperation. And the only historical basis for maximising cooperation is genetic relatedness.

The rest you can work out for yourself.

Posted by Guessedworker on Thu, 29 May 2008 21:54 | #

Incidentally, apologies to all readers who found us off-line for the last several hours.

Posted by Bill on Thu, 29 May 2008 23:43 | #

Thanks GW - It’s a little late now and I’m a tad tired, I will save your link until tomorrow. Meanwhile I nipped down the threads and retrieved something I said the other day - I think some of it is relevant….

“Looks as though I’m right, the writing is on the wall for our technological industrialised world, the left are, (as always) casting around for ways of saving mankind.

Our way of living, which has been facilitated by the abundance of cheap energy, is rapidly coming to a close, forcing mankind into an evolutionary convulsion, its collapse will be swifter than its emergence.

It would appear, that to the thinkers, movers and shakers, the white race has gotta go, as they are perceived as the roadblock to the progress of humankind.

The oncoming evolutionary convulsion will of course pay no heed to the thinkers, for this is where Darwinism (reality) comes into its own, anyway, they haven’t consulted the whites yet, for I’m sure they will have something to say on the subject.”

Posted by Bill on Saturday, May 17, 2008 at 08:52 AM | #

Posted by GT on Fri, 30 May 2008 00:25 | #

Snax,

GT, any truth in the claim that Prohibition was a result of Oil industry pressure because farmers were fuelling their vehicles with alcohol?

I don’t know if it’s true to or not. It wouldn’t surprise me, though.

I think there’s plenty of oil, but not enough refineries. One field in the Gulf of Mexico is refilling with oil from a deeper source, which means oil may have abiotic origins.

I can readily see oil execs promoting Peak Oil and discouraging refinery construction simply to drive the prices up. Monetarist speculators would love it.

There is another reason to look to alternative energy besides real or contrived oil shortages; namely, White energy and economic independence in the countryside.

More info re: Woodgas (for those who are interested):

1. Woodgas - Gasification - Wood - Gas - Producer Gas - Town Gas Faqs

2. Wood gas as engine fuel

3. Construction of a Simplified Wood Gas Generator for Fueling Internal Combustion Engines in a Petroleum emergency

4. Alternatives to fossil fueled engine/generators.

Posted by snax on Fri, 30 May 2008 00:56 | #

GT: I don’t know if it’s true to or not [about prohibition - s]. It wouldn’t surprise me, though.

Yes, it’s entirely consistent, but I’d like to have real evidence of the conspiracy, which I believe is quite possible. Is there more evidence for the idea that oil isn’t running out?

GW, tonight’s BBC Newsnight will soon be downloadable, and the discussion between Jonathan Porrit, Lionel Shriver, and others about population, sustainability, and energy smacks race, eugenics, and nationalism in the face again and again without ever mentioning the ‘R’, ‘E’, or ‘N’ words. If you can capture ot and post it here, it’s a discussion item.

Posted by GT on Fri, 30 May 2008 01:46 | #

Snax,

Is there more evidence for the idea that oil isn’t running out?

I really don’t know. You might find something of interest in the following links:

The real reason behind high oil prices

The abiotic oil debate and peak oil

Ties between the peak oil experts and the oil industry.

The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)

Posted by anonymous on Fri, 30 May 2008 02:56 | #

Brazil has recently discovered tha Carioca(?) field and has pacled an order fro massive amounts of offshore drilling equipment, ships, etc… There is also plenty of oil off both coasts of the US and I think the PRC is helping Cuba drill at some future point. But a new refinery hasn’t been built in the US for over 30 years. I’d imagine the leftist environmental movement had lots to do with that as well as the prohibition on drilling.
But speaking of conspiracies, I have read that back in the 1930’s, hemp had a real potential for being used for pulp for paper as well as fuel and nutritional purposes. Apparently, the timber barons/industry were so freaked out by this that they launched a massive campaign culminating in film Reefer Madness.” The US Dept. of Ag actually made a film called “Hemp for Victory,” but once WW2 was over they denied for years it even existed. Smoking it is really a waste in my opinion. If anyone is interested I’ll try and supply some links.
Whether Peak Oil exists or not is irrelevant in my view. This is a good time to start making some preparations, like getting back in touch with family and friends who live in a rural area.

Posted by GT on Fri, 30 May 2008 04:01 | #

Anonymous,

Whether Peak Oil exists or not is irrelevant in my view. This is a good time to start making some preparations, like getting back in touch with family and friends who live in a rural area.

Well said.

Posted by Bill on Fri, 30 May 2008 07:41 | #

The sign of things to come.

This mornings Times headlines warns of Fuel prices spark holiday crunch as air surcharges soar So straight away we see a situation developing which will affect the RR programme. The idea of jetting tens of millions of third Worlders half way round the globe becomes not only not doable, but in a dwindling fuel supply situation becomes a no brainer.

Race Replacement is an enormously energy consuming exercise, will the architects continue down the RR road or will reality surface, IOW, will the elites decide the trade off isn’t worth it? Not forgetting of course they themselves, (elites) will need to maintain their jetting lifestyle.

Posted by GT on Fri, 30 May 2008 15:43 | #

Producer gas videos (in German):

Holzgas Videos

Holzgas Generators

Holzgas Vehicle Show (WWII era, mostly)

Holzgas Vehicle (detachable)

FEMA Simplified Woodgas Generator

Gas Turbine Projects

Posted by Guessedworker on Fri, 30 May 2008 15:56 | #

Snax,

I watched the Newsnight replay. Thought Porritt was treated very badly. I’ve a soft-spot for Lionel Shriver, and blogged on her emergence from feminism into motherhood about three years ago.

There will never come a time when liberals discuss race voluntarily, on its merits and without a pre-set faux-moral qualification. It will have to be forced onto the table.

So I was not surprised that questions were left begging by these three - well, two-and-a-half because Porritt was scarcely allowed to speak - plus Emily Maitlis, the thinking man’s Sarah Jessica Parker. Precisely for that reason I don’t think the discussion went deep enough to form the basis of a post for us. In fact, at the end of it I was struggling to sum up what, really, had come out of it. How about you?

Posted by snax on Sat, 31 May 2008 01:01 | #

GW, I thought the questions left begging, and the notable absence of real discussion, provided exactly the opportunity for thinking nationalists to offer alternative positives. Of course I recognise these opportunities are everywhere and the most active bloggers do more than their fair share as it is.

Posted by GT on Sat, 31 May 2008 19:54 | #

Biomass gassification is not all about powering vehicles. Freeway legal or not, we all know that the typical Yup or Yupcup “residing” in Aliso Viejo, CA, wouldn’t be caught dead in a woodgas-powered vehicle. Neither would the typical lawyer with a shingle dangling from an old brick building in downtown Podunk, Alabama consider it. When thinking about biomass gassification, think home heating and cooking or mechanical and electrical power generation for small industries and microcommunities in rural areas.

2.7.2 Production of mechanical or electrical power in stationary installations

Gasifiers connected to stationary engines offer the possibility of using biomass to generate mechanical or electrical power in the range from a few kW up to a few MW.

Producer gas of engine quality needs a sufficiently high heating value (above 4200 Kj/m³), must be virtually tar and dust free in order to minimize engine wear, and should be as cool as possible in order to maximize the engine’s gas intake and power output.

It is convenient to distinguish between applications in terms of power output. The following figure shows the power range of the various systems.

Large scale applications (500 kW and above)

This is the domain of the specialized fluidised bed or fixed bed installations.

“In fluidised bed combustion, coal is burned in a reactor comprised of a bed through which gas is fed to keep the fuel in a turbulent state. This improves combustion, heat transfer and recovery of waste products. The higher heat exchanger efficiencies and better mixing of FBC systems allows them to operate at lower temperatures than conventional pulverised coal combustion (PCC) systems. By elevating pressures within a bed, a high-pressure gas stream can be used to drive a gas turbine, generating electricity.”

Equipment costs are likely to be in the range of US$ 1000 per installed kW and upwards.

Medium scale applications (30 -500 kW)

Fixed bed equipment fuelled by wood, charcoal and some types of agricultural wastes (maize cobs, coconut shells) is offered by a number of European and US manufacturers.

Adequate and continuing demand for this type of equipment could lead to standardization of parts and designs thus lowering production costs. For the moment quoted costs are in the range of 300 - 800 US$/kW (gasifier only) depending on type and capacity, level of automation and auxiliary equipment.

Full local manufacture is considered possible in countries possessing a well developed metal manufacturing industry. Major parts of the installations could be manufactured in most countries.

Applications are foreseen in small to medium size forestry and agro-allied industries (secondary wood industries, sawmills, coconut desiccating factories, etc.) as well as in power supply to remote communities.

Small-scale applications (7 - 30 kW)

This size would be appropriate for a multitude of village applications in developing countries (e.g. village maize and cereal mills, small-scale sugar crushers, looms, etc.).

The equipment is cheap (less than 150 US$/kW), extremely reliable and should need no special operation and maintenance skills.

Designs suitable for local manufacture are tested and produced in the Philippines (13), Tanzania (48)-and a number of other countries. Documented evidence of their success is for the moment limited, and it should be stressed that training programs for users and the organization of some type of maintenance service are of paramount importance.

It seems that charcoal gasifiers tend to give less operational problems in this power bracket than gasifiers fuelled by wood or agricultural residues. It is sometimes also believed that charcoal gasifier systems can be made cheaper than wood gasifiers systems in the 7 - 30 kW power range. There is some support for this in the prices charged for vehicle gasifier systems during the Second World War (43). It is not clear however if the difference of about twenty percent was caused by the difference in technology or was a result of better organized production or simply a matter or different profit margins.

Micro scale applications (1 - 7 kW)

This is the range Used by small and medium farmers in developing countries for providing power for irrigation systems.

Equipment must be transportable, cheap, simple and light in weight. It is quite possible that only small locally manufactured charcoal gasifiers will be able to meet the above requirements.

Posted by GT on Sat, 31 May 2008 20:55 | #

It really is amazing how much further ahead the Brits and Germans are in developing biomass gasification technology for power generation than, say, Americans. Do any Brits here care to say why that is?