Le Pen and the second ballot

Posted by Guessedworker on Wednesday, 06 December 2006 00:24.

Open Democracy has a straightforward but informative piece by Patrice de Beer on next year’s French presidential election. The passage on Jean-Marie Le Pen told me two things I never knew before.

First:-

There is a snag - the same one that derailed his efforts in 1981. By law, each candidate needs the support of 500 elected representatives (from national or local assemblies, or mayors) to enter the contest; for the FN this is always difficult, as the party has few elected members (none in parliament), and Le Pen has always relied on courting rightwing village mayors.

Second:-

Jean-Marie Le Pen combatively proclaims a determination to win; and if he can’t reach the ballot, he threatens to unleash “his” voters against forces on the right he accuses of betrayal (thus the covert efforts from Sarko’s” camp to help him obtain the 500 signatures he needs).

Obviously, Sarko has his eyes on Le Pen’s 13 to 17% poll rating. Right now, the Sarkozy-Royal contest is too close to call. But get the old devil into the race and his supporters won’t vote for Royal. Get the old devil out of the race at the first poll on April 22nd and they will have to vote for the Monsieur with the riot baton.

The interesting thing is that Le Pen is thinking along not dissimilar lines. That 17%, polled in mid-November, is a record for him. And there’s still ample time for a surge between now and April. If the mainstream right is split going into that poll Le Pen could repeat his shock-wave performance of 2002, when he eliminated Jospin. This time the victim would be Sarko, followed by a face-off against the left.

Le Pen, the unity candidate. Well, maybe.

A last thought. Which candidate would the denizens of les banlieues prefer to see in the Élysée? Royal, no question. But which of the others would they prefer her to contest the second ballot against?

And what methods do they have to hand to engineer that happy outcome?

Tags: World Affairs

Comments:

Posted by JB on Wed, 06 Dec 2006 05:31 | #

if what I heard is true the identities of the 500 wasn’t revealed to the public in the past, so public or political pressure against mayors who agreed to have a “bad” candidate run for presidency wasn’t as easy as it is now that their names are published in newspapers. France is a stifled democracy. There are celebrities and politicians openly saying that Le Pen shouldn’t have those 500 signatures. Most of its politicians are leftist antinationalist authoritarians and that’s the tip of the iceberg, its vast bureaucracy is filled with worst ideologues and they’re all afraid of the Front National.

The last time after the first round JMLP was boycotted by the media. There was no debate between him and Chirac. I don’t think it can be the case this time even if Sarkozy or Royal don’t want a presidential debate with a huge audience because they know Le Pen is going to win it easily. And if Sarkozy and Royal calls their voters to vote for the other in the second round against Le Pen the latter is going to hammer this as yet another proof that there’s no difference between the Left and the Right (and there isn’t, really). I don’t see a 80 to 20 % K.O. this time around

Which candidate would the denizens of les banlieues prefer to see in the Élysée? Royal, no question. But which of the others would they prefer her to contest the second ballot against?

I’m not sure how much he weights electorally speaking but a popular half-black comedian, Dieudonné, who has fought the FN in the past recently said so to speak that he was tired of being one of the token nigger of the system and that if Le Pen was in the 2nd round he would probably vote for him.

It’s funny that the international media hasn’t made mention of the fact that he has called Bush II a war criminal and a liar for his invasion of Iraq. He also said he had no problem with Iran getting the bomb. That should have been newsworthy outside of France.

Posted by Guessedworker on Wed, 06 Dec 2006 10:58 | #

A Haaretz piece this morning shines an interesting light on the Jewish position:-

It was a very embarrassing moment. The scene: the lobby of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem. The players: Segolene Royal’s spokesman Julian Dray and a representative of CRIF, the umbrella organization of the Jewish community in France. “I have nothing to talk to you about!” said Dray heatedly to the astonished Jewish representative. “You have sold your soul to the other side; you have nothing to look for with us. Go back to your friend Nicolas Sarkozy; he’s your landlord.”

The CRIF representative tried with all his might to convince Dray that his organization is taking an absolutely objective position with regard to the presidential race in France. But Dray stuck to his guns. “You are going to pay dearly for your one-sided mustering,” he went on to shout. “Segolene will be president, and you will have to pray for her to receive you for a discussion.”

The incident occurred Sunday evening, a few minutes before the discussion that Royal held with journalists about what she viewed as a successful visit to Israel. Dray, an influential parliament member with the Socialist Party, expressed the anger that has built up in the Royal camp against the Jewish community, and especially against the organization headed by Roger Cukierman.

It is an open secret that the Jews as an organized body have sworn allegiance to the candidate of the right, Sarkozy. At every opportunity, he meets with them and consults with them. At every opportunity they evince enthusiasm for him that is intended to convey the impression they are supporting him in his race for the presidency.

... Later on, when she started to gather momentum, they sent out probes to her camp to create conditions for friendship. When she defeated the men in her party in the first round, the heads of CRIF realized they had erred in their bet. After they recovered from the shock of her victory, they were certain that in the final race, their man, Sarkozy, would defeat her with one hand tied behind his back. And now, the latest surveys are indicating a close race with a slight edge for Royal.

What should they do? They are trying to carry out an elegant retreat and signal to the Royal camp that the Jews, in fact, have not yet decided who they think is the preferable candidate. However, it is possible that CRIF’s mustering for Sarkozy has already created a deep crisis of trust with the Royal camp.

... This situation does not work to the benefit of French Jews, of Israel and of relations between the two countries. CRIF achieved its greatness because it appeared to be a bridge that stretched over the turbulent waters of French politics. This is the reason the elders of the country, no matter from which camp, went to the trouble of accepting every invitation to appear before its members, in the knowledge that the Jewish organization is a French institution that rises above political disputes.

And there is another risk inherent here. When the alliance between the Jews and the presidential candidate of the right becomes a consolidated fact, the voters from Muslim backgrounds will flock to the Socialist candidate to serve as a counterweight to the Jews.

To the extent that the Jews will expect a return for their support of Sarkozy, the Muslims will expect a similar return for their support of Royal. If this happens, the distance between the two communities, which are embroiled in any case, is liable to grow even larger.

Posted by JB on Thu, 07 Dec 2006 15:23 | #

Ah, but is LePen all he’s cracked up to be?

I listened to many interviews in french - which those who understand french can do too, most of his media appearances are saved on the FN’s websites :

http://www.le-pen.info/audio/

http://www.le-pen.info/video/

http://www.videofn.com/audio/

http://www.videofn.com/video/

and what Le Pen says is that the islamization isn’t what’s threatening France, it’s the french becoming a minority in their own country. He doesn’t make a big deal out of islam itself, he speaks of foreigners taking over not of islamists taking over. In response to a politician who said the veil should be banned he said it was a dumb idea and that the veil is at least useful because it helps to visibly identify the foreigners among the french. His immigration plan is zero immigration.

He isn’t on the surface at least a white nationalist, whether he believes it or not he says non-whites can be French too. There are a few token arabs in the FN.

Auster would like to see Le Pen bash islam all day long but it’s not what is going to get him into power. But guess what ? the so-called right-winger Sarkozy wants the state to fund the construction of mosques and has said islamophobia is as bad as antisemitism. He also said he wants of national French brand of Islam for France whatever that is, an Islam ‘of France’ instead of an Islam ‘in France’. And don’t forget his affirmative action for the non-french, he wants immigrants to own property as soon as possible. He’s against the expulsion of criminal immigrants. And so much more. Sarkozy is a traitor disguised as a lawℴ tough guy. He really makes me want to puke.

Whatever his faults Le Pen is the only patriotic candidate which is why he has been demonized for so long, all the other want to further the destruction of the country

Posted by JB on Thu, 07 Dec 2006 15:28 | #

http://youtube.com/watch?v=01SNMo4oDhM

you can listen to him say

“France is multiple. France is diverse. Whether one likes it or not. The second religion of France is Islam. I want an Islam of France, I don’t want an Islam in France. I demand therefore a Frenchification of Islam to make it compatible with the laws of the Republic.”

Posted by Matra on Fri, 08 Dec 2006 23:41 | #

the so-called right-winger Sarkozy wants the state to fund the construction of mosques and has said islamophobia is as bad as antisemitism.

And like anti-Semitism Islamophobia can mean almost anything. Muslims squeal it every time someone stands up to their bully boy antics. The outlawing of Islamophobia will mean a ban on any criticism of their religion or the terrorist culture.

Posted by Al Ross on Sat, 09 Dec 2006 00:03 | #

Sarkozy is delusional if he thinks he can order “an Islam of France”.

Even in moderate, Muslim-majority Malaysia the Government is waging a propaganda war-without-end against Islamist extremist elements who wish to foist Wahhabi-style Arabisation upon the infinitely laid-back Malays’ version of Sunni Islam.

Posted by JB on Mon, 11 Dec 2006 05:41 | #

Matra:

The outlawing of Islamophobia will mean a ban on any criticism of their religion or the terrorist culture.

but there’s already a de facto ban on criticism of muslims *if* you’re not a leftist. The law is called I think “loi Pleven” and it covers incitement to hatred. It’s similar to Canada’s section 319 of the criminal code. For having said that :

« When the day comes that in France we will have, not 5 millions but 25 millions of muslims, they’ll be the ones in charge. And the French will ‘shave’ the walls and walk the sidewalks looking down »

Le Pen was ordered to pay €10,000.

But Robert Redeker, a phony leftist philosopher paid by the state to teach anti-western nonsense, wrote an opinion piece bashing Islam and calling it incompatible with la République and not only he wasn’t sued by the usual “anti-racism” groups as far as I know but he received police protection because some guy threatened to kill him on an obscure internet forum because of this rant against islam and the media made a small fuss about this story. He’s not a nationalist, he’s in fact a long time opponent of the Front National, so he’s treated like a innocent target of dark theological forces.

Whether you’re rich or poor…, said Molière. Today it’s whether you’re a tool of the system or a patriot