This post is an attempt to place Western civilization at the current time among the seven stages of a civilization’s rise, expansion, decay and collapse as articulated by historian and philosopher Dr. Carroll Quigley in his 1961 book,

“The Evolution of Civilizations.”  It also examines what role the recent legalization of abortion in western countries (but mostly in America) has had in our civilization’s recent development.  Was Roe vs. Wade a cause or a symptom of our civilization’s decline? 

First, however, a brief summary of Quigley’s thesis:-

As mentioned, Quigley noticed that civilizations appear to go through seven distinct phases.  In the first stage, labelled “mixture”, two or more cultures combine to form a new culture, in something like the way “a mixture of chemicals sometimes produces a new compound different from the mixing chemicals”.  In stage two, “gestation”, the newly formed culture focuses on building its “instruments of expansion”: inventions are being made, surplus is being generated, etc…  Stage three, “expansion”, is marked by increased production, population, knowledge, and an enlargement of the civilization in geographical terms due to exploration, colonization and conquest.

As the civilization “maxes out”, however, stage four, the “Age of Conflict”, sets in.  Quigley considered this the most interesting of the seven stages, and marked it through four chief characteristics: a declining rate of expansion, increasing class conflicts, increasingly frequent and violent imperialist wars, and growing irrationality, superstition and pessimism.  When one state subdues or dominates the others, the civilization enters into stage five, or “Universal Empire”.  Peace and prosperity blossom with the ending of “internal belligerent destruction”.  Unfortunately, the glow of the new golden age is actually one of “over-ripeness”.  Stage six, “decay”, is marked by acute economic depression, declining standards of living, civil wars, population implosions and growing illiteracy. 

Furthermore, the “religious, intellectual, social and political levels of the society begin to lose the allegiance of the masses of the people”.  This continues until stage seven, “invasion”, is instigated by outside forces, either through military action, mass migration, or a combination thereof.  Quigley also noticed that the historical center of a civilization generally progresses through the various stages ahead of the periphery, and that it is possible for a civilization to reform itself and regress from stage four, for example, to stage three.

Quigley believed that western civilization was, at the time of his writing, in stage four, an “Age of Conflict”, for the third time in its history, and had been since around the year 1900…  ...Yet by the time of Quigley’s writing, the imperial wars of western civilization, as well as the martial struggles for dominance between western states, had ground to a halt.  By now, it is clear they are over.  So what stage is western civilization currently in?

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MARC ZAPPALA