Project Anxiety prevails in Austria. Italians give their ruling class the middle finger So, somewhat against poll forecasts, Nobert Hofer lost considerable ground to his rival Alexander Van der Bellen in the period between the presidential votes. The liberal Establishment’s fear strategy is probably responsible for that, and for now, at least, its internationalism project and its race project are secure, much to the satisfaction of the elites in Brussels. Nonetheless, there is not much despondency among the defeated nationalists. Rather, I would say they look as if they are banking their gains and sizing up the next challenge, which will be the legislative elections in or before 2018. Let it be noted that those gains include knocking the Establishment party candidates to pieces in the first round of this year’s vote. But there has also been some marked back-sliding on EU membership. Nationalist parties cannot be internationalist. Chasing after the liberal voters won’t work. Challenging them is the only viable option. For the wider nationalist movement this defeat is a wasted opportunity. Hofer as president would have provided a useful precedent for Geert Wilder’s Party for Freedom in the Dutch general election next March and to Marine Le Pen in her struggle for the French presidency in April. The idea that an irresistible wave of anti-Establishmentarianism and populism is sweeping the continent has taken a knock - even if that lasted only a couple of hours because in Italy the government of Matteo Renzi and, by extension, the banking and corporate class has been humiliated in a vote on a narrow constitutional issue of enhancing executive powers. Italy, of course, has a sclerotic constitutional and legislative system, more politely known as checks and balances, which makes it impossible to take the kind of decisive action required to address the terrible crisis afflicting the economy. But it would seem that Italians don’t mind sclerosis and inaction, because they voted today by up to 60-40 against Renzi’s proposals on a 70% turnout, and Renzi himself has now honoured a pre-vote promise to resign if he loses. The putative winners in this strange affair are Beppe Grillo, the ex-comedian leader of the chaotic and wildly unconventional 5-Star Movement, Renato Brunetta, the parliamentary leader of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right Forza Italia, and Matteo Salvini, the head of the Lega Nord (the only party which definitely wants to leave the EU, drop the euro and return to the lira). But the electoral maths are complex. Some of those who voted against Renzi’s proposal only did so because they want to stay in the EU and keep the euro, and fear that a future populist government could use the powers Renzi sought to take the country out. For now, though, the immediate question is whether the government, or some combination of the present governing class, will seek to stay in office, thereby ignoring the spirit of the vote, or whether an early general election will be called. If the latter - and it really should be the latter - Spring 2017 is going to be a hectic time for European political dissent. Comments:2
Posted by DanielS on Tue, 06 Dec 2016 03:28 | # From my perspective, one of the worst things about the Hofer defeat is losing-out on his aspiration to join forces, Austria and The Intermarium. That would have been great - Promethian indeed. Add to that a cooperation between the Intermaium - The UK and Asia and we really would have been able to put the squeeze on Merkel and her friend, Captainchaos ) 3
Posted by Guessedworker on Tue, 06 Dec 2016 08:42 | # Change of that order requires not so much a Hofer presidency as an FPO majority in the legislature and, thereby, an FPO government with a free hand. That won’t come in 2018, but there will be a significant advance, very likely bringing the FPO into government again, but only as a partner. Not much was lost with Hofer’s defeat. The Austrian electorate will have time to reflect on the liberal predilection for open borders, internationalism, and immigrationism. The Visegrad countries, meanwhile, will model a functioning alternative of loyal conservatism. So, for the FPO it’s back to “worse is better”. But its rise, like the rise of nationalism everywhere in Europe, is facilitated via the proxy of a democratic reaction, not by any form of true revolution. 4
Posted by Stugatz on Wed, 07 Dec 2016 17:33 | # All I could think of was that scene from The Godfather: 5
Posted by Austria: FPÖ Plans New Assault on Thu, 08 Dec 2016 11:15 | #
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Posted by Guessedworker on Tue, 06 Dec 2016 02:10 | #
This sounds pretty likely to me:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/italy-will-soon-haunted-inability-reform/
So, in a nation in which any desire for change meets with inherent systemic resistance, blows to the governing class can be ridden out and policies which the people have rejected can be pursued regardless. Democracy as toujours la meme chose. The cynical heart of Italian politics, but also the essence of European Union.