Tea Leaves: Forecasting Merkel’s Political Demise

Posted by Kumiko Oumae on Friday, 20 November 2015 22:07.

Events in France affect Germany.

There’s only so long that an idiot can keep-on-keeping-on, until all sections of the more rational elements of the establishment begin to question that idiot’s ability to remain politically viable.

We’ve all heard already about how the defence and security sector has found Germany to be a land of absurdity for quite a while now. But that alone is not enough to see someone removed from office. The preponderant political power in a liberal state is the haute-bourgoisie. Economic power precedes political power. This means that understanding the background financial and economic signals and the way that these signals interact with the overt political landscape, enables us to see an event developing from far off, and allows us to adjust our own tactics accordingly.

The Paris attacks have been a nightmare for Merkel because it has awakened criticism not only from German people in the street, but also among opportunistic members of her own party who are seeing now that she is at the weakest she ever has been, and that now is a chance for them to mount a political challenge. But the success of that challenge, when it comes, depends on the acquiescence or at least the sign of a resigned inevitability from financial players who are the stakeholders in the ‘success’ or ‘failure’ of Germany.

The time when it would be politically expedient to remove Merkel, would be in December at the CDU conference, where someone would be able to demand that she should hand in her resignation, and twist her arm until she does. Who would be most likely to replace her in such a case? Most likely Wolfgang Schaeuble.

So our big question is: How likely is it that Angela Merkel will be forced to resign in December and be replaced by Wolfgang Schaeuble?

One way to find this out, would be to look at the macroeconomic stances of Merkel and Schaeuble, compare them, then watch and see how the ECB and the large players are behaving, to see if they are making any moves that would suggest that they don’t expect Merkel to still be there by the end of December.

It’s known that Schaeuble is more of a tight-fisted politician than Merkel when it comes to certain aspects of economic policy—Schaeuble hates expansionary policies much more than Merkel does. And for those of you who thought that it wasn’t possible to hate expansionary policies more than Merkel, I have to tell you, it’s possible, Schaeuble does precisely that. On that issue, he is pretty depressing.

Therefore, it stands to reason, that if you see Mario Draghi at the ECB suddenly deciding to rush through a lot of actions to carry out more expansionary economic policy (something which he certainly ought to do) within a time frame before the end of December, and that if you see big global economic stakeholders ‘forecasting’ interest rates that are even more subterranean than at present, along with ‘forecasting’ more quantitative easing, one of the factors motivating that choice could be that they are positioning themselves for a future in which Merkel is forced to resign. Why? Because it’s easier to carry out those actions before Schaeuble gets in. That way, when Schaeuble gets in, he would have to accept that it is already happening.

So, let’s see what people are saying as of this Friday evening:

Bloomberg Business, ‘Draghi Says ECB Will Do What It Must to Spur Price Gains’, 20 Nov 2015, 1349 UTC (emphasis added):

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi set the scene for further stimulus in two weeks’ time, saying the institution will do what’s necessary to reach its inflation goal rapidly. The euro fell.

“If we decide that the current trajectory of our policy is not sufficient to achieve that objective, we will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible,” Draghi said in a speech in Frankfurt on Friday. “In making our assessment of the risks to price stability, we will not ignore the fact that inflation has already been low for some time.”

Draghi’s comments underline the ECB’s concern that the inflation rate in the 19-nation euro area, currently 0.1 percent, will slip further from its target of just under 2 percent amid a high degree of economic slack and slumping oil prices. Policy makers are weighing the need for an expansion to the 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) quantitative-easing program that started in March, or measures such as taking the deposit rate further below zero.

The yield on German 2-year bonds slid to a record low of minus 0.389 percent and the euro dropped. The single currency was down 0.4 percent at $1.0689 at 2:47 p.m. Frankfurt time.

Power Tool

“A further stimulus announcement in December is a virtual certainty,” said Marco Valli, chief euro-area economist at UniCredit SpA in Milan. “‘We will do what we must’ leaves little room for interpretation: if they fail to reach target, they do more.”

The ECB’s Governing Council will meet in Frankfurt on Dec. 3 for its next monetary-policy meeting. While Draghi and Executive Board member Peter Praet, the institution’s chief economist, have indicated more easing is in the cards, some governors have expressed unease.

Estonia’s Ardo Hansson, Slovenia’s Bostjan Jazbec and Germany’s Jens Weidmann have signaled since the last meeting that they see no need to ease policy further just now.

“I see no reason to talk down the economic outlook and paint a gloomy picture,” Weidmann said in a speech at the same event as Draghi. “Crucially, the decline in oil prices is more of an economic stimulus for the euro area than a harbinger of deflation.”

Praet said in an interview this week that taking no action in circumstances of such low inflation risks the ECB’s credibility, and has argued that the fall in oil prices is increasingly a sign of weakening demand.

QE Adjustment

“If we conclude that the balance of risks to our medium-term price stability objective is skewed to the downside, we will act by using all the instruments available within our mandate,” Draghi said. “In particular, we consider the asset-purchase program to be a powerful and flexible instrument, as it can be adjusted in terms of size, composition or duration to achieve a more expansionary policy stance.”

He added that the interest rate on the deposit facility “can empower the transmission” of asset purchases, “not least by increasing the velocity of circulation of bank reserves.”

Draghi said core inflation, which excludes energy and food, is also a signal of too-weak price pressures. The rate was 1.1 percent in October. While that’s the highest reading in more than two years, it’s still barely half the goal for the headline rate.

Core Concern

“Low core inflation is not something we can be relaxed about, as it has in the past been a good forecaster for where inflation will stabilize in the medium-term,” he said. “While core industrial goods will receive support from the depreciation of the euro, an increase in core services inflation –- today close to an all-time minimum –- will depend on rising nominal wage growth. For that to pick up, the economy needs to move back to full capacity as quickly as possible.”

The ECB is currently buying 60 billion euros a month of bonds and intends to do so through at least September 2016. The deposit rate is at a record-low minus 0.2 percent.

There is “little room for doubt that the central bank is not only about to step up its monetary stimulus, but plans to do so decisively,” said Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “We expect the ECB to step up the pace of QE by 20 billion euros per month, signal that purchases will go on beyond September, and expand the eligible universe of assets to include regional bonds. We also expect a 10 basis-point reduction in the ECB’s deposit rate and guidance that it would be cut further if necessary.”

And:

Bloomberg Business, ‘Euro Resumes Drop as Draghi Leaves Little Doubt of More Stimulus’, 20 Nov 2015, 1708 UTC (emphasis added):

The euro fell for the first time in three days after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers will do what they must to raise inflation “as quickly as possible.”

The shared currency weakened to almost a seven-month low against the dollar and dropped versus all of its 16 major peers. Draghi said in Frankfurt that downside risks to price growth have increased in recent months. The euro also fell after German producer prices declined more in October than forecast.

“It was clearly meant to stress that the ECB remains active and we’ve seen market responses accordingly—the euro has dropped back,” said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto. “The market is taking on board the message from Draghi that we should be prepared for potentially quite aggressive actions in December.”

The euro declined 0.7 percent to $1.0655 at 12:07 p.m. New York time, after gaining 0.9 percent in the previous two days. It touched $1.0617 on Nov. 18, the lowest since April 15. The shared currency fell 0.8 percent to 130.86 yen.

Draghi said last month that ECB policy makers would review the degree of monetary stimulus at their December meeting. Since then, the euro has weakened almost 6 percent versus the dollar as traders increased bets that officials may extend the bond-buying program or further cut the deposit rate.

German producer prices fell an annual 2.3 percent in October, after a 2.1 percent decline the previous month, the nation’s federal statistics office said Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a 2 percent drop.

“We should be in little doubt that the ECB are again attempting to adjust the monetary policy dial, likely via extending and increasing QE, while another cut in the deposit rate is also on the cards,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “While far from an explicit aim, easing monetary conditions via a cheaper euro is also a positive by-product of such policies.”

The euro pared its decline as ECB official and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said he didn’t see any reason to “paint a gloomy picture” of the region’s economy. He warned that the longer ultra-loose monetary policy was in place, the less effective it can become.

And:

Bloomberg Business, ‘14 Predictions for 2016 from the Brightest Minds in Finance’, 20 Nov 2015, 0501 UTC (emphasis added):

[...]

Rebecca Patterson, chief investment officer of Bessemer Trust, which oversees more than $100 billion in assets

The biggest risk for Europe in the year? “It’s the refugee crisis,” says Patterson. “I think it’s the biggest challenge to the European Union yet. The horrible terrorist attacks in Paris increased the risk that the refugee crisis could result in a political and/or policy shift, or simply lead consumers to change their spending patterns. Either could weigh on sentiment around European growth and corporate profits.” Patterson is on alert for any such changes but remains overweight European equities and positioned for a weaker Euro, she says. “The Paris attacks sadly shone a light on the European refugee crisis; I assume more investors globally now are thinking more about what millions of immigrants can mean for an economy and respective markets. However, I am still not sure that investors globally have adequately thought through what market spillovers the European refugee crisis could trigger over the coming year.”

[...]

Erik Nielsen, chief economist at UniCredit

“Expect further divergence between the Fed and the ECB, with the former hiking rates a couple of times next year and the latter expanding its balance sheet more than it has presently announced.”

[...]

Of course, the situation in Germany is not the only reason why the ECB would take the actions that it is going to take, it was likely something that was always going to happen. But the time frame within which it is occurring and the reaction of market participants to that risk event, seems to indicate that a lot of people are paying attention to this. Look at the 3 week and 1 month Euro-dollar volatility term structure, and you can see that they are reacting to European risks and not just to the upcoming 16 December Federal Reserve meeting in the USA:

Graph 3

Also, given that there are numerous arguments for why Mario Draghi did not have to take the earlier-described actions in the short term (one of those being the oil prices argument), and given that he is determined to do it anyway, it would indicate that it is an attempt to get out in front of Schaeuble so as to pre-emptively make it more difficult for Schaeuble to get his way on monetary policy, and it would therefore mean that it is possible to be confident that Merkel is going to be gone by the end of December.

What does this mean for ethno-nationalists? Well, it means that it would probably be prudent to begin altering our rhetoric and policy suggestions with an eye toward a near-term future in which Merkel is not there. This will require some adjustments which would be best made sooner rather than later. We should be particularly vigilant against the idea that the removal of Merkel is a magical solution to all problems. Schaeuble’s disposition is one that presents a slightly altered set of problems to the European Union, and we would need to explore what those are ahead of time and be ready to criticise them when they come.

There needs to be an urgent study of all facets of Wolfgang Schaeuble’s politics. He might be chancellor of Germany very soon.

Kumiko Oumae works in the defence and security sector in the UK. Her opinions here are entirely her own.

Tags: Activism, Business & Industry, Demographics, Economics & Finance, European Nationalism, European Union, Globalisation, Immigration, Immigration and Politics, Islam & Islamification, Marxism, Political analysis, World Affairs

Comments:

Posted by uKn_Leo on Sat, 21 Nov 2015 03:32 | #

Hi Dan, Kumiko and GW.

The new site layout is fantastic. Great work guys.

All the best.

Posted by uKn_Leo on Sat, 21 Nov 2015 15:44 | #

Douglas Murray in the Jewish Chronicle warning that the Goyim have woken up to their role in pushing for mass immigration into Europe:

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/comment/149678/the-real-refugee-problem-bigotry

Posted by Captainchaos on Sun, 22 Nov 2015 00:01 | #

Germar Rudolf for chancellor!

Posted by Guessedworker on Sun, 22 Nov 2015 07:59 | #

Leo, thanks for that link. Of course, Douglas Murray is a neoconservative, and that is why he can model the canary in the mine for Jewish immigration activists. In fairness, for some years now he has been critical of immigration numbers and of the failings of the political class:

http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2012/07/uncontrolled-immigration/

But this piece in the Jewish Chronicle breaks all records for truth-telling in the public realm. Interestingly, Murray uses the term “replies” to describe the thread commentary. This is the first definite indication I have seen that mainstream commentators are not basically just writing for each other as an exercise in bias confirmation; and that they do not automatically discount the voice of the crowd but, on the contrary, pay close attention to and draw conclusions from it. Murray has plainly been influenced by the work which thread-warriors like you and I do, which is heartening.

I don’t suppose that he or the other journalists have any idea how much thought and effort has gone into pushing back pee-cee and widening the envelope of the sayable, or that this work has been done, essentially, for them. They do not know that our righteous anger, our truth-telling, our deadly questioning is purposive. They look upon it as an inevitable symptom of untoward power politics. They could never conceive of themselves as instruments of ideological control not of the media owners but of the unwashed, reactionary masses!

Nevertheless, we are working for that fine day when we can click on “Comment” on the DT’s header, and at the top of the page there appears a piece by some hitherto cowardly journo titled, “Why is the future of the English never mentioned in the immigration debate?” Then we will know that the change is unstoppable.

That will come to pass by no means least because, small and weak though we may seem, we are in the fight today.

Posted by Morgoth on Sun, 22 Nov 2015 10:41 | #

Lacking the time for the blog and slugging it out on threads I’ve recently taken to Twitter to confront directly our enemies. These Neo Cons are under sustained and relentless attack from the ‘‘Alt Right’ Nationalists. Pat Condell in particular is prone to spitting his dummy and merely ranting when confronted. I’ve been respectfully asking Tommy Robinson to address the JQ, in a ‘‘You’re a brave man Tommy, but the Jews are not our friends’’ manner. I told him to look at the Murray link and to my surprise he ReTweeted it, for his 100k Followers. I saw Nick Griffin going after Murray on his ‘‘Zionism’’ just days before Murray wrote the above piece. In the British context Murray is a more senior figure in the Neo Con/Counter Jihad camp and so if he’s addressing the JQ the others can no longer merely dismiss it.

I can foresee an episode of Question Time when in a heated exchange Murray,or somebody else, will warn a Leftist Jew such as David Aaronovitch that Jews must be careful not to be seen as an out group attacking the interests of host population. Slowly but surely we trickle our way into the MSM discourse.

Posted by Kumiko Oumae on Sun, 22 Nov 2015 14:06 | #

uKn_Leo on Sat, 21 Nov 2015 03:32 wrote:
The new site layout is fantastic. Great work guys.

Thanks. We’re doing all that we can to make things as good as possible. I’ve been pretty busy around the clock so there’s been a slowdown in improvements at MR, but I have some more things in the pipeline that you’ll get to hear about soon, which should improve the user experience further in coming weeks.

uKn_Leo on Sat, 21 Nov 2015 15:44 wrote:
Douglas Murray in the Jewish Chronicle warning that the Goyim have woken up to their role in pushing for mass immigration into Europe:

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/comment/149678/the-real-refugee-problem-bigotry

They seem to be aware of where this is going. However, the Jews seem to be on a train that just won’t stop, since every other week they are becoming more public about it.

Here’s another instance of them inviting migration: http://www.kaiciid.org/news-events/news/groundbreaking-muslim-jewish-leadership-platform-launched-protect-religious-freedom

And another: http://www.haaretz.com/jewish/news/1.686976

That is in addition to the instances I talked about in my recent article about Liddell’s compromise.

It’s good that most ethno-nationalists have been way ahead of the curve on this, and I’m agreement with Guestworker’s view that soon all of this will be mainstream. The Jews seem to want to bring back the so-called ‘golden age’ of the Islamic occupation of the Iberian peninsula, and they seem to want to do it across the entirety of Europe—and they’re preparing for that scenario even now.

Guessedworker on Sun, 22 Nov 2015 07:59 wrote:
But this piece in the Jewish Chronicle breaks all records for truth-telling in the public realm. Interestingly, Murray uses the term “replies” to describe the thread commentary. This is the first definite indication I have seen that mainstream commentators are not basically just writing for each other as an exercise in bias confirmation; and that they do not automatically discount the voice of the crowd but, on the contrary, pay close attention to and draw conclusions from it.

Exactly.

Morgoth on Sun, 22 Nov 2015 10:41 wrote:
I saw Nick Griffin going after Murray on his ‘‘Zionism’’ just days before Murray wrote the above piece. In the British context Murray is a more senior figure in the Neo Con/Counter Jihad camp and so if he’s addressing the JQ the others can no longer merely dismiss it.

Yes. This also vindicates the strategy that has been taken of actually talking about the Jewish Question. Uncompromisingly talking about it has now been shown to actually have positive effects, and it can now be clearly demonstrated. I think that everyone needs to keep doing it, and keep forcing them to address it.

Posted by Ryan on Sun, 22 Nov 2015 14:54 | #

@Kumiko #6

Considering that this was published through the Jewish Chronicle rather than his own platform this means the article was intended to have an effect which would be advantageous to the jewish diaspora.

I think the article was intended to be both a warning shot for them to not be so open and to usher jews away from their historical liberal positions towards the kosher right of tories/UKIP.

For example those in the UK who oppose immigration believe, rightly or wrongly, that the EU causes mass immigration. The ‘No’ campaign leader is Nigel Lawson, the jewish ex chancellor of exchequer who has historically taken positions akin to a traditional tory of the period. While red-pill Pro-Whites can give a long history of jewish involvement in pro-immigration politics the average punter, if faced with the Pro-White position will think that as a jew is the frontman for leaving the EU then they will see the jew-wise position as irrational.

Posted by Kumiko Oumae on Sun, 22 Nov 2015 16:20 | #

Good points, Ryan.

The right response in these cases would be to point out that it is the false dichotomy that Jews would be presenting. When presented with the option of [1]‘unending and eternal mass migration’ or [2]‘literally abolish the whole EU framework and disintegrate all European collaboration while of course migration continues’, it has to be seen by regular people that both those options are like shooting oneself in the head either from the left or from the right.

The regular people will understand it, hopefully, once someone can explain that ‘abolishing the EU’ is not the same thing as ‘ending mass migration’. Particularly since the entire British commonwealth would still be wide open for mass migration, and because the UK was never part of Schengen in the first place.

Posted by Guessedworker on Mon, 23 Nov 2015 06:59 | #

“All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.” Enoch Powell

Returning to the Merkel question, we can perhaps say that there are certain features likely to be present at the close of grand political careers. Most obviously, as Kumiko infers, there are the “lean and hungry men” who are always in the background, and whose own advancement cannot be secured under the existing regime. Seeming permanence is a terrible affront to political ambition, and Time itself will always grant its favour to the latter. For the ambitious, it becomes just a question of opportunity ... of calculating the political risks and judging the leader’s weakness, the public mood, the alignments within the party ...

From the other side, a perception of a general desiccation will always colour long, leading careers eventually. Familiarity takes its toll. The leader is assumed to have lost touch. His or her particular ideology, once so fresh and affirming, slowly sinks into the historical soil and become part of the problem. Criticism mounts, and with it the sense that the leader has had his/her day and has nothing more to contribute and, especially, nothing to say about the new challenges of the day. A subtle tipping point is reached when the once unthinkable and unsayable is frequently thought and said, and there is no going back to the old way of thinking and saying.

When all this comes to pass, the coup de grace will come at the next false step, which Merkel duly made in a major, unforgivable, panic-inducing way with her invitation to the Arab world to take up permanent residence in Germany. She’s dead meat.

Posted by Steve Konrad on Sat, 28 Nov 2015 01:56 | #

I would like you to know that there are many of us of European decent here in the USA who are fighting a similar battle ,please know that we are behind you 100 % .I have been observing these invasions for a few years now and I honestly feel that this next election is a turning point for us here in the states.I would like to see a organization develop throughout the western world that unites us against this enemy.Fate has determined that the security of future generations through out Europe and America are dependent on us not dropping the ball on our watch.The greatness of our past and future generations demand that we do what many will not agree with perhaps but we must stay focused and determined. Thank you: Steve Konrad

Posted by Kumiko Oumae on Mon, 30 Nov 2015 10:51 | #

We’ll keep doing what we can to get the message out there, Konrad. Thank you for the compliments.

As an update to the thread, here’s what is now happening with the ECB and Draghi: [Link]

Posted by Mick Lately on Mon, 30 Nov 2015 16:13 | #

Green card?

I’m seeing red:

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/nov/30/visas-papers-marriage-relationships-united-states

Lol @ the idea of the New World Order defying ISIS to hold a climate change summit in Paris:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/30/obama-calls-paris-climate-talks-an-act-defiance-wake-recent-attacks

Just a parade of fakery and faggotry.

Posted by Kumiko Oumae on Mon, 30 Nov 2015 17:52 | #

They’re acting as though ISIL was interested in preventing climate change from being addressed, or something. I always struggle to understand these ‘acts of defiance’. The biggest act of defiance would be to actually bomb Raqqa.

Posted by Kumiko Oumae on Sat, 05 Dec 2015 04:37 | #

Update: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/03/ecb-launches-new-stimulus-package-eurozone

It did not work out, the more tight-fisted elements within the ECB ended up attenuating all of the measures. Of course, no one is surprised to find that those tight-fisted elements are German. They are seriously the most annoying people on the entire European continent now.

Posted by NF becomes France's largest party on Mon, 07 Dec 2015 16:25 | #

National Front Becomes France’s Largest Party

Posted by Some German on Tue, 08 Dec 2015 20:53 | #

They are seriously the most annoying people on the entire European continent now.

Speak for yourself, bitch.

Posted by Kumiko Oumae on Tue, 08 Dec 2015 22:14 | #

Some German on Tue, 08 Dec 2015 20:53:

Speak for yourself, bitch.

I speak for the entire continent, faggot.

The whole raft of measures was watered down because Germans used their influence to once again advocate for their stupid ordoliberal views. I will regard you as fucking shit until you can figure out how to stop sucking Arab migrant cock, and until you also start advocating economic views that are not purely destructive to the Eurozone.

Posted by National Front in 6 of 13 on Wed, 09 Dec 2015 20:57 | #

CCC, Nation Front could rule 6 out of 13 French administrative regions, 7 Dec 2015:

France has begun it’s two part elections for it’s administrative districts. France currently has 21 administrative districts in mainland France and Corsica. That number will be reduced to 13 starting in January 2016. There are also five small overseas territories.

Front National was the top party in the first round of the election and could end up ruling 6 out of the 13 administrative regions. Front National took 28.5% of all votes. The moderate Les Republicans, formerly known as Union for a Popular Movement, took 27%. The far-left Socialist Party took 23.5%. The far-left Greens and a hardline Marxist party took a combined 10%. Combined the three left-wing parties only took 33.5%.

Six years ago, the Front National took 11.5% in the same election. The Socialist Party and the smaller far-left parties took a combined 47%.

Both the left and the center lost ground, while the FN surged. Front National performed especially strong in the northwest and south. They took over 40% of the vote in two regions. The second round of voting starts next weekend.

Posted by World Jewish Congress Against Maréchal Le Pen on Thu, 10 Dec 2015 06:00 | #

WJC, “Do not let the Republic give way in the face of threats’: French Jews urge unity against Le Pen party”, 7 Dec 2015

The French Jewish umbrella organization CRIF on Monday called on French mainstream political forces to unite against the far-right and xenophobic National Front (FN) party, which on Sunday became the largest party in nation-wide regional elections.

Marion Maréchal Le Pen

Ahead of next Sunday’s run-off elections, which will determine the presidents of the regional councils in France, CRIF called on citizens to vote in order to block the Le Pen party.

“Do not let the Republic give way in the face of threats!” the organization said in a press release.

Sunday’s first round of the regional elections was the first since last month’s terror attacks in Paris, in which 130 people were killed, and the National Front, founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen 40 decades ago and now led by his daughter Marin, won 28 percent of the vote, ahead of former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s Republican Party on 27 percent and President François Hollande’s Socialist Party with 23 percent.

‘Dangerous environment’

CRIF President Roger Cukierman said in a statement: “These results are very disappointing. The increase of the FN now makes it the strongest party in France, which is a very worrying thing for the future.

“We have already had a lot to worry about ISIS, about the growing anti-Semitism in our cities, and about the far-left’s support for the anti-Zionist BDS movement. And now, we’re confronted with the resurgence of the extreme-right.

“For us Jews, this is a dangerous political environment, even though we can count on the support of the governing parties and the opposition Republicans,” declared Cukierman.

France’s chief rabbi, Haim Korsia, called for a “civic uprising” of voters in the second round “to breathe life into democracy… in these particularly troubled times for the nation”.

The FN result was the strongest electoral showing for any far-right party since World War II. Le Pen’s father, National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, had a history of anti-Semitism, though his daughter has distanced herself and the party from him and his record.

he National Front was ahead in six of the 13 regions in mainland France, including in the northern Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie region where Marine Le Pen stood for president, and the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region in the south where her niece Marion Maréchal-Le Pen headed the FN list

In a press release, the CRIF pointed out the presence of important Jewish communities in cities such as Marseille, Cannes, Nice and Strasbourg, which could soon fall within FN-run regional administrations.

The second round of the regional elections will be held next Sunday. According to the electoral system, the winning list will automatically be given a ‘premium’ to give it an overall majority.

The Socialist Party on Monday announced that it would withdraw some candidates from the race in order to consolidate the opposition to the National Front.

Story from http://www.worldjewishcongress.org/en/news/ahead-of-second-round-of-regional-ballot-french-jews-urge-unity-against-le-pen-party-12-1-2015?printable=true

Posted by Kumiko Oumae on Thu, 10 Dec 2015 16:54 | #

The funny part of them calling for a ‘defence of the republic’, is that the Front National has in fact styled itself as one of the last defenders of the ‘truly’ secular French Republic.

The only thing that these liberals and Jews are demonstrating through their complaints, is that they don’t care about secularism, nor do they even care about trying to be truthful.

Posted by james UK on Mon, 14 Dec 2015 02:28 | #

FN had the best chance of meaningful political success given all the favourable factors to happen in France recently to boost their political support in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks and subsequent imposed state of emergency yet they still failed miserably.

France’s far-right National Front party, headed by Marine Le Pen, has failed to win a single region in the second round of the country’s regional elections after a solid victory in the first round, several exit polls have shown.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdBB8JD06vk

Posted by Le Brun on implications of French elections on Tue, 15 Dec 2015 08:36 | #

Marine Le Pen and her niece Marion Maréchal-Le Pen

Patrick Le Brun discusses with Johnson the French elections, Front Nationale’s being thwarted upon the second round and future scenarios for France.

Posted by 2% of Invaders Will Work on Tue, 15 Dec 2015 12:03 | #

Only 2% of Invaders Will Work

...therefore, you need to bring lots and lots and lots of them into your country in order to fund for your pensions.

TNO, ‘Only 2% of Invaders Will Work,’ 14 Dec 2015:

Only two percent—or one in fifty—nonwhite invaders who have entered Germany over the past few months stands any hope of getting work, and this will seriously aggravate the unemployment problem there, according to one of Germany’s leading economic think tanks.

The Kiel-based Institute for World Economy (IfW) said in a forecast that the stream of “refugees” will cause the German labor market to be burdened with hundreds of thousands of unemployed—who will all have to remain welfare recipients for the foreseeable future.

The forecast also predicted that there would be at least another one million refugees each year in 2016 and 2017, in addition to those who have already come.

According to an economist at the IfW, Dominik Groll, the influx of “refugees” will increase the available pool on the labor market by 2017 to over 470,000.

“But many will have no chance on the job market,” he said. “An employment rate of two percent is consistent with the previous experience in Germany of immigrant integration programs, particularly from asylum seekers,” he said.

“This means that out of more than two million refugees, only about 94,000 will actually find paid work,” he continued.

The invaders’ low employment prospects were confirmed by Professor Ludger Wößmann, director of the Ifo Center for the Economics of Education in Munich.

In an interview with Die Zeit newspaper, he said that his research had shown that most of the invaders have a “miserable” education, and that at least two-thirds of them cannot even read or write.

Describing them as “functionally illiterate,” Professor Wößmann said that “two-thirds of students in Syria have very limited reading and writing ability.

“They can only solve the simplest of arithmetic problems. This means that these students, even if they have learned German, will barely be able to follow a school curriculum.”

Another IfW estimate of the costs of the nonwhite invasion to the German taxpayer has said that the basic expenses involved will be around 55 billion euros ($60 billion) a year.

That forecast was however made on the assumption that 30 percent of the invaders would return to their homeland, and only another 20 percent would have trouble finding a job.

The true cost of the nonwhite invasion of Germany is therefore likely to be several times higher than the IfW prediction—and will ultimately break the power of the German economy.

Posted by Kumiko Oumae on Tue, 15 Dec 2015 23:55 | #

This is one of the few instances where the so-called ‘free market’ will severely punish Germany for the choices that they are making under Merkel. The longer she holds on, the more she and her short-sighted business associates are piling up the funeral pyre for German industrial output. It’s going to be a really big bonfire, it really will be an enormous conflagration when the ‘pay the piper’ comes.

There will be opportunities for East Asian companies and British companies to basically take Germany’s lunch and eat it.

And the Germans will have brought it on themselves for being so intransigently pro-mass-immigrant. At this stage I’m almost looking forward to the impending German disaster, because since Merkel’s ridiculous speech on Monday happened, it’s looking like economic punishment is the only way that they are going to learn.

Posted by Björn Höcke speech on Sun, 27 Dec 2015 12:19 | #

Björn Höcke gives a speech on behalf of German patriots: a homeland for German children.

Posted by A threat she cannot make public on Wed, 20 Jan 2016 09:00 | #

While it is no excuse, it looks as if Merkel has been confronted by a threat that she does not feel that she can make public.

Mekel’s approval at all-time low

According to an opinion poll, the Union [Merkel’s party] is paying a heavy price in the favour of the voters in the middle of the dispute about the right course in refugee policy. In a new INSA opinion trend, CDU/CSU lose 2.5% compared to the previous week to 32.5%, thus sinking to an all-time low in the INSA poll, which has been running since 2012.

The SPD [Socialists] are up one point to 22.5%, the right-wing populist AfD also up by one point to 12.5% and the FDP by 0.5 points to 6.5 per cent. The Left remain on ten per cent, the Greens lose 0.5% and are on 9.5%.

Posted by Erdogan Insult Pressures Merkel on Wed, 13 Apr 2016 05:08 | #

TNO, “Erdogan Insult” Raises Pressure on Merkel” 12 April 2016:

FULL POEM IN ENGLISH—Turkish president Recep Erdogan’s demand that Germany prosecute a TV satirist over a childish off-color poem has succeeded in placing Chancellor Angela Merkel in a serious predicament—because she needs Erdogan’s cooperation for her “refugee” plan to work.

The furor started when notorious German TV satirist Jan Böhmermann wrote and read a deliberately insulting poem about the Turkish president on national television—and then issued it on YouTube with Turkish subtitles.

In Turkey, it is a criminal offence to insult the president, and Erdogan has now demanded that Böhmermann be prosecuted in Germany for making the insults, which included claims that the Turkish leader has sex with goats, has a small penis, is a kinky homosexual, suppresses Christians and Kurds, has lice, is a zoophile, and is like two infamous Austrian pervert criminals who kept children in their basements as sex slaves.

Police in Germany have now been instructed to see if they can make a criminal case against Böhmermann—obviously under Merkel’s orders to try and appease Erdogan—upon whom the bogus “repatriation of refugees” swindle negotiated by Merkel, hinges.

The investigation against Böhmermann has, ironically, succeeded in forcing even leftists in Germany to reconsider the entire “deal” with Turkey.

This is because the demand to prosecute an irreverent comedian over what is essentially nonsense, made by a foreigner in another country—and Merkel’s apparent acquiescence in investigating the possibility—has made many realize just how bad things are getting in that country.

Foremost among these leftists now having a rethink is Boris Palmer, who is mayor of Tübingen and previously a Green Party member of the state legislature of the Baden-Württemberg state parliament.
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In a posting on his Facebook page, Palmer addressed an “open letter” to Erdogan, which summed up the issues perfectly:

Böhmermann does not speak for Germany

Dear Mr. Erdogan,

As a citizen of the Federal Republic of Germany I would like to apologize for the “severe crimes against humanity” that Mr Böhmermann has perpetrated against you.

I think it is totally unacceptable that a satirist, under the guise of freedom of speech, would bring you dishonor as head of state and therefore support wholeheartedly your desire to punish him appropriately.

This is even more so because you lead the fight against the freedom of expression in your own country with great conviction and credibility. With more than 2,000 criminal convictions for insulting the president, the figures speak for themselves.

Mr Böhmermann’s conviction in Germany will make the resistance to you in Turkey realize that they cannot rely on Western values.

German law seems too weak to obtain a significant enough penalty. I would therefore encourage you to submit a request for extradition of this outrageous man.

Given your great contribution to the refugee crisis, you can expect preferential treatment from Germany.

The EU has already proven that it prefers the morally dubious work Turkey is doing—[namely] paying Turkey to protect Turkish borders—and it is therefore expected that the appropriately harsh punishment [for Böhmermann] will only be possible if it takes place in Turkey.

Cut off Lord Böhmermann’s balls, so he never again says that the President has a short penis.

Respectfully yours

Boris Palmer.

The poem in question, translated from the German, reads (figuratively translated) as follows:
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Sad-sack, goofy, cowardly and broken-down

Erdogan is the President.

His thievery stinks like bad pizza,

Against which even a pig’s fart smells nice.

He is the man whom the girls beat

while wearing rubber masks.

He likes to f**k goats,

and suppress minorities,

Kurds agree, Christians slave

and he views child pornography.

And then even when he goes to sleep at night

He first fellatios a hundred sheep.

Yes, Erdogan is completely,

a president with a small penis.

Every Turk hears the sound

That the stupid cow has testicular atrophy

From Ankara to Istanbul,

Each man knows he is gay,

Kinky, with lice, and a zoophile

Recep Fritzl Priklopil.*

His head as empty as his balls,

the star of every gangbang party.

Until the penis burns with piss.

that’s Recep Erdogan, the Turkish president.

* A reference to Wolfgang Priklopil, an Austrian who kidnapped a ten-year-old girl and held her in captivity for eight years, and Josef Fritzl, who kept his daughter in an underground cell in his house as a sex slave for twenty-four years.

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