Viktor Orban and Premier Beata Szydło

Euractiv, “Polish premier says will never bow to EU ‘ultimatum” 20 May 2016:

Poland’s right-wing Prime Minister Beata Szydlo vowed Friday (20 May) that her government would never bow to any EU ultimatum and accused some members of the European Commission of trying to “destroy” the 28-member bloc.

Szydlo was responding to a Monday deadline (23 May) set by the Commission for Poland to reverse a controversial overhaul of the country’s top court that has set off a fiery dispute between Warsaw and Brussels.

“Poland will never succumb to any ultimatum,” Szydlo said during a stormy debate in parliament.

“There are some in the European Commission… who want to destroy the European Union rather than see it develop.”

Hungary, Poland and illiberal democracy

The EU’s problem is that others are following the illiberal regimes of Hungary and in Poland, and it is possible that among them be Germany, writes George Friedman.

The executive warned earlier this week it could take further action against Poland because of concerns over the commitment of the governing Law and Justice (PiS) to the rule of law.

“If there is no significant progress by 23 May, then the First Vice-President (Frans Timmermans) has been empowered to adopt the draft rule of law opinion,” the commission said in a statement on Wednesday.

The exact contents of the opinion are not known, but if Warsaw fails to address the issues raised, it could eventually face a suspension of voting rights in the European council of ministers, the EU’s most important decision-making body.

However, Poland’s regional ally Hungary is likely to torpedo any possible sanctions, which would require the unanimous approval of all 28 EU members.

In Friday’s parliamentary debate, leaders of Poland’s liberal opposition party the Civic Platform blasted Szydlo for “desecrating the constitution” and “burning more bridges with Europe”.

An MP from the conservative Polish Peasants’ Party went so far as to charge that the actions of her administration risked “civil war”.

Poles launch campaign against court reform

Tens of thousands of Poles took to Facebook Thursday (10 March) to support the country’s top court in a constitutional battle against the right-wing government.

Szydlo’s government plunged Poland into political crisis in December when it pushed through legislation to revamp the constitutional court and modify its decision-making rules.

The European Commission in January launched an unprecedented probe to see if the changes — seen by critics as endangering the court’s independence — violated EU democracy rules and merited punitive measures.

Since taking office in November, the PiS government has pushed through several pieces of controversial legislation, including strengthening state control over public broadcasters and seeking to tighten already limited access to abortions.

Poland’s rejection of refugees under an EU-wide plan to tackle Europe’s worst migrant crisis since World War II has also chilled ties with Brussels.

Poland and Hungary: Tactical alliance or strategic partnership? Commentary for New Eastern Europe…

Here is what one blogger concerned for the prospects of this alliance has to say - i.e., that he believes a tactical alliance is possible but not a full fledged strategic alliance:

Wojciech Jakóbik Blog, “Poland and Hungary: Tactical alliance or strategic partnership? Commentary for New Eastern Europe”, 13 Jan 2016:

The recent almost 6-hour long meeting between Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of the ruling party in Poland and Viktor Orbán, Hungarian prime minister, is perhaps a prelude to better co-operation in Brussels. Anything beyond that is out of the question because of the politicians’ different views on Russia.

The meeting between Kaczyński and Orbán in the Polish resort town of Niedzica proves that in both countries’ politicians’ names matter rather than institutions. Despite the fact that Andrzej Duda is the Polish president and Beata Szydło prime minister, the Hungarian leader was invited by the chairman of Law and Justice (PiS). The topics of the unexpectedly long conversation have not been revealed to the public.

The conclusions of the meeting can be speculated about. Since this was a talk between two leaders of conservative parties – PiS and FIDESZ, that are represented in the European Parliament, it might lead to increased co-operation, despite the fact that within the EP, Poles belong to the European Conservatives and Reformists and Hungarians to the European People’s Party. Perhaps Warsaw and Budapest will collaborate better when it comes to battling the criticism of first Hungary and now Poland by EU institutions and their representatives. However, it is certain this will not help Poland gather EU officials’ support when it comes to, for instance, its fight against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

The facts show that Poland can conditionally count on Hungary regarding a few issues:

1. Gas policy – the Slovenia-Hungary gas pipeline was completed in 2015 and is a key part of the North-South Gas Corridor, which is a network of gas pipelines that are supposed to connect the LNG terminal in the Polish town of Świnoujście with its counterpart on the Croatian island of Krk. This constitutes a meridian axis of gas connections that will determine the development of the regional gas market, which has so far been dominated by east-west gas transit from Russia.

2. Hungary and Poland are against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. On the one hand, the project is criticised by both states. But on the other hand, the opening of Hungarian companies to co-operation with Gazprom is a fact. The Russian giant was invited to build a gas hub in Hungary. The hub will be used in the winter if the company has troubles with delivering gas via Ukraine.

3. Budapest is also against an ambitious climate policy. Together with Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia it established a coalition against a legally binding, high participation of renewables in energy production which is part of the EU’s 2030-2040 energy mix. Due to Poland’s and Hungary’s histories, both countries’ economies have energy intensive industries that are threatened by an overly ambitious climate policy.

However, certain reservations must be made, as they show that Poles cannot blindly count on Hungarians, even if personal relations between Kaczyński and Orbán are excellent.

Hungary’s “no” to Nord Stream 2 has a second reason, which is important to note in order to interpret its position. Gazprom’s northern project is to replace the South Stream pipeline which was blocked by the European Commission but supported by Budapest, which wanted to participate in the enterprise. Hungarians may accept Nord Stream 2 if they receive a compensation. This scenario has already taken place in the Czech Republic where the project is not perceived as a threat to the country’s energy security. Prague’s choice was to maintain its good relations with Germany instead of showing solidarity with other Visegrad countries when their energy ministers sent a letter of protest to the European Commission. However, it is possible that Hungary will change its current stance in order to sustain a good relationship with Russia. This means that the opposition to Nord Stream 2 should not be Poland’s main argument for co-operation with Hungary. Their defiance is tactical and it is not, like in Poland’s case, about the general rule of building new gas pipelines from Russia to Europe. It is about a specific proposition and consequences of Brussels’ politics, that in their opinion should block Nord Stream if it stops South Stream.

Despite the fact that Hungary is currently on the same page with Poland when it comes to climate policy, its energy mix is less dependent on coal. In Poland 90 per cent of energy is made out of coal, while in Hungary it is slightly less than 20 per cent. Other energy sources include nuclear energy and gas. A new section of Hungary’s Paks nuclear power plant will be built by Russian atomic energy corporation Rosatom, while gas is purchased from Gazprom. Budapest is orienting its energy source policy towards Moscow because Caspian gas supplies and other diversification projects are too far in the future. This is the key bone of contention with Warsaw which is pursuing energy independence from Russia through, for example, Świnoujście LNG terminal. At some point Budapest may leave coalition against the Nord Stream 2 coalition like the Czech Republic did.

Poland and Hungary cooperate successfully regarding NATO’s security policy. They both expand their gas infrastructure and keep on defying the EU’s ambitious climate policy. However, the more we explore the details, the more differences there are. One of the issues is a contrasting approach to Moscow, in which Orban is flirting to thumb his nose at the European Commission.

Perhaps the meeting with Kaczyński foretells partnership in resisting the European Commission. But the difference is that Poland need Brussels for protection against issues like Nord Stream 2 or the Kremlin’s attempts at revising sanctions. Hungary does not pay much attention to the sanctions and may agree to Nord Stream 2 under certain conditions.

The romantic alliance between Poland and Hungary has survived hundreds of years. The idea of Intermarium (co-operation between Central and Eastern European states) is also gaining popularity these days. But few people remember that its foundation is based on anti-Russian sentiments, promotion of freedom movements like Ukraine’s EuroMaidan and fanning national particularities to dismantle the Russian Empire. Today such an alliance will not be backed by Hungary and many other of the region’s nations that care about good relations with Russians.

Remodeling the Polish-Hungarian alliance into a pragmatic coalition will be more difficult the more countries diverge when it comes to EU integration and Russia. That is, unless Warsaw mirrors Budapest and Polish foreign policy is revised to emulate the changes made by Viktor Orbán. This seems unlikely considering Kaczyński’s anti-Russian stance. Moreover, such a new direction would be difficult to accept by his party’s supporters, who continue to raise concerns about the causes of the Smoleńsk plane crash in which the former President of Poland Lech Kaczyński, Jarosław’s twin brother, died. Because of that, Orban may only be a tactical ally for Kaczyński, but he is not likely to become a real strategic partner.

...The Official News From Hungary on its relations with Poland does not focus on differences with regard to Russia, but takes a more optimistic view:

http://www.miniszterelnok.hu/the-alliance-between-poland-and-hungary-is-a-historic-one/”>Miniszterelnok “The ,alliance between Poland and Hungary is a historic one” 2 Feb 2016:

Polish-Hungarian bilateral relations represent a historic alliance, said Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who, following bilateral negotiations on Monday, assured Prime Minister of Poland Beata Szydło that her country can count on Hungary’s solidarity in relation to any double standards being applied to it.

At a joint press conference following their meeting in Budapest, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that he and his Polish counterpart had agreed that the strengthening of cooperation between members of the Visegrád Group (V4) is a mutual goal. In the coming years the success of the whole of the European Union hinges on the success of the Central European region, because “if we are not successful there will be no economic growth in Europe”, the Hungarian prime minister highlighted.

On the subject of Polish-Hungarian bilateral relations, which he described as a “historic alliance”, Mr. Orbán also stated that this is a tried and tested friendship which goes back hundreds of years, and that this friendship is not dependent on politicians; if history so demanded, it would continue to exist despite politicians.

“I would like to make it clear that Madam Prime Minister and Poland can count on Hungary’s solidarity in the face of any form of double standards, from whatever source, and any kind of unfairness towards Poland”, he emphasised.

On the subject of the bilateral economic issues which were at the centre of the negotiations, the Hungarian prime minister said that it is important to strengthen ties between Polish and Hungarian enterprises. To this end Mr. Orbán and Mrs. Szydło have agreed to link the eastern industrial regions of the two countries with dual carriageways, he announced; he highlighted the city of Miskolc, which would be connected to eastern Poland via Košice in Slovakia. The parties also agreed to improve rail connections and increase the number of direct flights by establishing Budapest-Katowice and Budapest-Krakow routes, for instance.

With reference to the EU reform proposals put forward by the United Kingdom, Mr. Orbán said that he and his Polish counterpart had confirmed that they agree with the majority of the British proposals, but there are points on which further discussion is necessary. The goal is for the countries of the Visegrád Group to represent a joint standpoint at the next Brussels summit following next Monday’s V4 meeting, he stated.

The Prime Minister also said that he accepts with understanding Poland’s commitment to having transatlantic military units and equipment stationed in Central Europe. Every country has a right to voice such requirements, he added.

Another topic at the meeting was migration, and in this regard the Hungarian prime minister confirmed that Europe is unprotected from the south and that Greece is incapable of protecting the continent. In light of this the Hungarian government believes that a new line of defence is required along Greece’s borders with Bulgaria and Macedonia.

In reply to a question from the press concerning migration, Mr. Orbán also said that in the West “the wind of change” can occasionally be heard on the issue, but “we shouldn’t let this deceive us”, because we mustn’t forget that most of the western countries supported the current wave of migration. Migration “didn’t enter Western Europe by force; the doors were flung wide open”, and in fact people were sometimes transported to Western Europe in an unmonitored manner, he said.

According to the Prime Minister, a significant proportion of Western European political leaders regard migration as a positive phenomenon, just as they did six months ago. And as a result, he continued, the problem is far from being over, because immigration cannot be stopped until European leaders recognise that it is a bad thing.

Prime Minster Orbán argued that the West should join Central European efforts to establish a southern line of defence.

Mr. Orbán also noted that the western part of Europe does not fully appreciate the burdens borne by Central Europe related to refugees from Ukraine. Poland deserves special acknowledgement, because it has managed to handle the situation without financial support from the European Union, he pointed out.

“When it comes to solidarity, we would ask that efforts conducted in the interests of refugees from Ukraine should also be evaluated within the context of Europe as a whole”, he indicated. In reply to another question, the Prime Minster said that he believes a debate should begin on what kind of EU we want, and the V4 will undertake this task within the next year or two.

Poland will always support Hungary

“Poland will always support Hungary on political and economic issues, and it is grateful to Hungary for its solidarity”, Mrs. Szydło said.

The Polish prime minister stressed that Poland is committed to the development of a joint V4 standpoint on “Brexit”: the possible exit of Great Britain from the European Union. Negotiations with Czech and Polish partners will also take place prior to the Prague summit on 15 February, she said.

The Prime Minister of Poland said that the most important issue is the proposal on social benefits, which is unacceptable in its present form. The V4 will not allow the proposals to be put forward for interpretation at EU level, she indicated, adding that their final joint standpoint is still under development.

Mrs. Szydło also stressed the importance of a joint V4 standpoint on the issue of migration, stating that Poland’s position is clear: the southern border of the Schengen Area must be reinforced and the solution to the problem must be found outside the borders of the European Union. Poland is making serious preparations for the protection of its eastern border, and every state has the sovereign right to choose what forces it allows to police its borders, she added.

The Polish prime minister stressed that she hopes the V4 will succeed in agreeing on more and more joint standpoints within the European Union. There is a need for as many Visegrád projects as possible which serve the interests of our citizens, she added.

In reply to a question from the press concerning the fact that Venice Commission representatives will be visiting Warsaw on Monday, Mrs. Szydło explained that the body’s visit had been prepared in detail and Commission experts will have full access to all facts and specific documents. The Venice Commission will be meeting representatives of the Government and the Constitutional Court of Poland, and the visit is a good opportunity to explain the changes which needed to be implemented with relation to the Constitutional Court, she stated.

In reply to a question, the Polish prime minister also mentioned the fact that in the next few days the Polish government will introduce a reform package in order to realise its election promises. A four-year plan to increase economic growth has been developed and at Tuesday’s cabinet meeting they will be discussing how to support families, she said.

The Polish are among the most hard-working of people, yet they earn very little, and this is something which definitely has to change, the Polish prime minister said. To this end, the Polish government is seeking ways of providing additional funding from the state budget. As examples, she cited a possible bank tax and the introduction of taxes on enterprises with large trade volumes, but the legislative proposal on this issue has not yet been adopted, she said. The position of the Polish finance minister is not in danger, she added.

On the subject of Hungarian-Polish relations, Mrs. Szydło said that Warsaw is counting on closer economic and political cooperation with Hungary, because it is important to both of them that Central Europe and the region should develop as much as possible and play an important international role. She mentioned rail, road and energy development projects among immediate opportunities for Hungarian-Polish cooperation.