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Three possible forms of a Ukrainian victory ... and a Russian defeat
The Easter ceasefire is over, and the fighting has resumed where it left off. It left off at a very interesting point. Something almost impossible to credit is taking shape in Ukraine. Its potential seems wholly at odds with the narrative of Russian inevitability which we have grown used to hearing from Moscow and its allies, including the White House and the State Department. Yet it hasn’t come out of nowhere. By the second-half of last year it was already apparent that Moscow could not bring to bear sufficient military force to realise its maximalist aims. Far from granting an inevitable victory as the adversary with the larger economy and population, the favoured Russian strategy of attrition was not producing the expected results. Then, as winter set in, Russia’s employment of unmanned aerial warfare in the form of terror attacks on Ukrainian civilians and on civilian power generation targets likewise did not yield the expected general demoralisation of the Ukrainian people and the sapping of their war-will. This characteristically crude twin approach was failing because the Ukrainian command (a) avoided the meat-grinder tactic by giving-up territory when necessary to preserve Ukrainian soldiers’ lives, and (b) found ways to nullify the most effective weapon the Russian forces could deploy on the contact line, the glide bomb or KAB. The Ukrainian strategy throughout 2025 was to bleed the enemy while conducting deep strikes against Russian military-industrial and economic targets (the most famous of which was Operation Spiderweb, of course). Though effective enough to slow the Russian advance to a snail’s pace, it was still only a containing measure. But with the turn of the new year that all began to change. There was a step-change in Ukrainian tactical capacity involving more sophisticated, more integrated, and more numerous drones. The term “drone swarm” became a reality. At the same time an extraordinary array of new Ukrainian short-range, surveillance, and cruise weapons began arriving in theatre, much of it enhanced by non-jammable AI. Over three hundred AI-related developments are registered with Brave1, Ukraine’s centralized defense-tech platform. More than seventy systems based on AI and computer vision are already in active use on the battlefield. The American AI company Shield is working with Ukrainian drone developers to incorporate its HiveMind AI into new Ukrainian drones. On top of all that a ballistic weapon is undergoing live combat trials. A home-grown Patriot missile replacement is now planned. The pace of innovation is staggering. All taken together, the Russian rear, which reaches between fifteen and sixty miles behind the contact line, is now under sustained pressure. Russian forces can’t effectively organise because the logistics can’t be secured, particularly given that four hundred and ninety-two Russian air defense systems were recorded destroyed between June last year and early March this year. Add the loss of Starlink and the Telegram shut-down and those difficulties are greatly compounded. Moreover, new Ukrainian weapons are striking ports, pumping stations, oil storage depots, and pipelines. Some targets are over 1000 kilometres away from the fighting. With or without US sanctions Moscow can’t earn what it needs to pay for its war. The next major Ukrainian development on the battlefield is the most significant of all. It’s ground robotics, first introduced by Ukraine in trial numbers as early as 2023. They were then introduced systematically and on an ever widening scale. The current range of mostly FPV fibre-optic machines are already far in advance of Russia’s efforts, and have been undertaking a variety of support actions - 22,000 in the first quarter of 2026 according to Zelensky. These include autonomous combat missions. Again the pace of development has been frenetic. Subject to the challenges of scaling up manufacture, they have the potential to resolve Ukraine’s structural deficit in manpower. Commercially, the global sales potential of these systems is vast. They are likely to play a significant role in the reconstruction of the Ukrainian economy. Here is the excellent Paul Warburg explaining both the military and economic potential of these systems: The upshot of Ukraine’s drone development has been threefold. First, the Russian Spring offensive has been nullified. It is already a failure. Russian casualties have reached the point where more soldiers are being taken out of the fight than Moscow can recruit. Far from being pushed further back, Ukrainian forces are actually advancing in four areas. A sense of foreboding is setting in among Russian milbloggers. As the Kiev Post reports:
Second, Donald Trump’s precipitate action in Iran has made very public the IRGC’s exact drone and missile capabilities, which are not inconsiderable. The Saudis and the Gulf States along with the Europeans have also now witnessed modern assymetric warfare, which is making redundant the old model of high cost machinery and the doctrine of force concentration. Both the Ukrainian success against Russian armour and their daily experience of drone and missile bombardment offer powerful commercial arguments for the extraordinary innovativeness of the Ukrainians. It has made them the undisputed world-leader in all these technologies; and suddenly everyone wants either to buy from them or manufacture products on a joint-venture basis. Kiev’s desperation for money and weapons, which Trump was able to leverage for Putin’s benefit, can now become a thing of the past. Trump is losing his power to bully and blackmail Kiev. Third, this is a time of growing optimism in Ukraine’s military strategy. There is a sense that Trump’s call for the surrender of all Donetsk was a bluff that has now been trumped. The MAGA hostility has been borne with patience and grace, and seen off. Europe has not caved. Western and Arab governments are coming to Kiev’s door for weapons tech. The prospect, finally, of money flows from commerce and not just from charity and loans has materialised. A peacetime future as the world’s leading manufacturing nation of affordable advanced drones and battlefield robotics is beckoning. Some housewives! Which, of course, begs the question as to what kind of peace that might be. From Kiev’s perspective the only peace Putin will observe is one of abject Russian military defeat. He can be given no opportunity to return in a few years time to his expansionism and to realising his geopolitical ambitions. He must fail. Three versions of that failure, and thus of the Ukrainian’s place in history, suggest themselves: 1. Expulsion of Russian Army from all Ukraine. Putin holds his nerve, gathers his forces, and goes for a strategy of blaming the army and “elements” in Moscow. There are sweeping arrests and the lid is just about kept on the situation. Longer-term, the FSB ratchets up political oppression. Putin’s rivals are scattered and hunted. But the Eurasianist dream is over. All thought of expansionism is sacrificed to the struggle to keep the Federation intact. But after that? 2. Expulsion of Russian Army from all Ukraine. The defeat is too structural for Putin to survive. He is arrested by his own security service. The militarisation of the economy proves disastrous now the war is over. Rapid de-industrialisation is the cost. The release onto the streets of three-quarters of a million embittered and unemployable soldiers creates further instability. A power struggle ensues between the various oligarchic factions picking hungrily over the bones of Putin’s Kremlin until, by some mysterious means, a unifying figure - a strongman, of course - takes up the reins. The tzar-isation of Russia begins anew. Kiev and all Europe wait and watch. 3. Expulsion of Russian Army from all Ukraine. The shock brings not just the end of Putin’s long reign but the collapse of the Russian Federation itself. The eastern republics convulse in nationalism and seize the moment to break away. Some terrible revenge on local FSB personnel is taken by armed groups, many of whom are soldiers returned from Ukraine. Inevitably, strongmen barge to the fore, not a few noisily Islamist. But fifteen or even twenty old nations arise anew from the ashes of the Federation, some of them nuclear-armed. Even west of the Urals there are regional efforts to achieve independence. The ancient colonial drive of Muscovy is dead. In Minsk, Lukashenko boards a flight and flees the country. The miniscule army of Moldova walks into Transnistria unopposed. Warsaw waits to find out with whom it will negotiate its re-absorption of Königsberg. An age of European peace lies in prospect. And Ukraine? At a minimum, the fruits of victory (be it simply military, military and fatal to Putin, or military and fatal to Putin and the Federation too): a secure peace and a prosperous future as the world-leader in the arts of asymmetric warfare and modern arms supply, plus entry to the west as its people so desire and deserve. Comments:2
Posted by Guessedworker on Fri, 17 Apr 2026 22:36 | # I encounter these sorts of statement all the time, Thorn. All accession states to the EU have to align their laws with those of Brussels. It is one of the major qualifications for entry. Second, none of the former Soviet bloc states have been afflicted with mass immigration. Ukraine won’t be either. Meanwhile Putin is pulling in migrants - in particular from Pakistan - to cover the gaps created by the draft. No one ever seems to mention that. 3
Posted by Thorn on Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:09 | # Both Ukraine and Hungary will be flooded with third world immigrants. That’s the plan. It’s going to happen just like England is being flooded. 4
Posted by Thorn on Sat, 18 Apr 2026 10:44 | # Q: After the war with russia, will Ukraine have to import millions of migrants/workers to make-up for its population loss? Short answer: 5
Posted by Thorn on Sat, 18 Apr 2026 10:48 | # Core finding: Ukraine’s labor force will shrink dramatically Ukraine’s population is projected to remain 15–25% below pre‑war levels for decades, even in optimistic scenarios. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies projects ~35–36 million people by 2040, about 20% below the 2021 level. The working‑age population (18–60) is projected to fall 22–25% by 2040. Birth rates have collapsed to 0.9 children per woman, the lowest in Ukraine’s history. Mortality has surged, with 280 deaths for every 100 births in 2023. Millions of refugees — disproportionately women of childbearing age and children — may not return. Only 43% of refugees plan to return, down from 74% two years earlier. This combination produces a structural demographic deficit that cannot be closed by fertility recovery alone. Will Ukraine need migrants? The wiiw study recommends “incentives to boost immigration” as an essential step for reconstruction. Ukraine’s Demographic Development Strategy through 2040 includes immigration as a component of population stabilization. Ukrainian demographers note that even in pessimistic scenarios, population decline will be offset partly by migrants from other countries. Why immigration is unavoidable: Reconstruction requires labor immediately — construction, energy, logistics, demining, manufacturing. The domestic labor pool is shrinking due to casualties, emigration, and aging. Return migration will not be enough — even optimistic scenarios assume millions will stay abroad. How many migrants might Ukraine need? Working-age population loss by 2040 Projected 2040: ~19.2–19.9 million Loss: ~6–6.5 million workers Refugee return expectations If 6.5 million refugees remain abroad, 3.7 million may never return. Labor migration outflow after the war Combined implication: Not all of this must be filled by foreign migrants, but hundreds of thousands to several million foreign workers over time is plausible — especially if reconstruction accelerates. Where might migrants come from? Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) South and Southeast Asia (India, Vietnam, Philippines) Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan) Balkan states Potentially African countries with established labor‑migration channels Ukraine’s own demographers cite the Philippines as a model for circular migration and return strategies. What Ukraine is planning instead of mass immigration alone Refugee return incentives (housing, jobs, childcare, safety) Pronatalist policies (childbirth payments, parental support) Rebuilding infrastructure to EU standards Creating high‑skill sectors (defense tech, prosthetics, demining) Selective immigration, not uncontrolled inflows But even with all of this, immigration remains a required component of demographic stabilization. Bottom line Ukraine is likely to require sustained immigration — potentially in the millions over two decades — to avoid severe labor shortages and support reconstruction. 6
Posted by Thorn on Sat, 18 Apr 2026 10:52 | # @ 5 That’s legal immigration, but if you also factor in the inevitable illegal immigration, the problem will get exponentially worse. 7
Posted by Guessedworker on Sat, 18 Apr 2026 16:16 | # The Ukrainians are talking only about bringing home their families from abroad. One of the interesting and true comments made recently on the Ukrainian workforce was the “Housewives” comment by the Rheinmetal guy. The drone industry is a cottage industry currently producing 3,500,000 drones year, with restructuring in place to increase that to 10,000,000. No immigrants involved. The industry in the east has gone and will not come back. The industry of the future is weapons tech, including AI and robotics. Even the million guys in service now are a modern tech-educated body in a way they never were before February 2022. The whole country is going to be re-formed. It’s not like Britain in the immediate post-war years where the new National Health Service and the transport sector couldn’t get people to work for low wages. The new Ukrainian economy won’t pay low wages. Give it time and peace. We’ll see. 9
Posted by Guessedworker on Fri, 24 Apr 2026 17:33 | # No, it’s not at all interesting, and it’s only relevant for displaying the mechanical thinking of the pro-Putin, Russia Today folks like this guy Diesen. He takes no account of Russia’s parlous political and economic instability. He doesn’t yet understand the meaning of the technological gap to the Ukrainians. He’s one to two years out of date, repeating Moscow’s talking points and, basically, transferring all blame to “the West”. Apparently, he was associated with the late Arne Treholt, was was convicted of spying for Russia. They co-wrote an op-ed in Aftenposten in 2020. This is the wrong type of person for you to be listening to. Anyone who refers to Putin’s war as “an operation” has given the game away, and can be safely ignored. A more interesting and relevant podcast: 10
Posted by Thorn on Sun, 26 Apr 2026 15:46 | # The longer the war drags on, the more Ukraine’s native population edges toward an irreversible decline. From my perspective, since the 2014 Maidan color revolution, it’s clear that the powers in the West are using Ukraine as a means to push for regime change in Moscow. Even if Ukraine were to drive out the Russian military today, I think its population would never fully recover; moreover, the plan is going to rely on large-scale immigration (race-replacement) to rebuild the country. 11
Posted by Guessedworker on Sun, 26 Apr 2026 17:59 | # 1. Your perspective, Thorn, is such that a Norwegian Eurasianist, who associates with a convicted traitor, is a suitable source of information. 2. The “blame the west” mindset is a creation of Moscow’s propaganda. None of it is true. All of it is designed to recruit you to their cause. 3. Ukraine’s demographic problems will doubtless be very difficult. But peoples are not mere economics, and the economy of the future Ukraine is not going to be remotely like the economy of the past. 4. The best guide to whether Ukrainians will be forced to accept the western model of foreignisation is to be found in the other former Soviet bloc nations, where it never happened. 5. Moscow is importing foreigners now. 12
Posted by Thorn on Sun, 26 Apr 2026 21:15 | # Setting propaganda aside, GW, the outcome of the Euromaidan revolution has set native Ukrainians on a course toward demographic demise - or at best, serious decline. It didn’t take much geopolitical insight to see that if Ukraine moved toward joining the EU and NATO, Russia would respond with military action. It was as predictable as Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz if the USA and Israel went to war with it. 13
Posted by Guessedworker on Sun, 26 Apr 2026 22:20 | # You are now arguing that the desire of peoples for national independence and autonomy must be resisted in favour of alien control so as to avoid demographic consequences which are, in fact, entirely the result of said said aliens’ aggression. How else do peoples become free but by standing up and fighting if they must? Moscow (not Russia - Moscow, always Moscow) did not have to invade. It does not have to be Eurasianist, imperialist. It does not have to consider other peoples’ lands its own. It does not have to lie and bully. But it is a mafia state, and it harbours an imperial mentality. Ukrainians know very well that, ultimately, they are fighting to kill that mentality for all time. Do you want them to succeed or not? If not, what cost to the rest of eastern Europe are you willing to accept? 14
Posted by Thorn on Mon, 27 Apr 2026 11:06 | # “How else do peoples become free but by standing up and fighting if they must?” Yeah, “they” stood up and put up a fight, and it’s resulting in a devastated Ukrainian population. That’s what you get when a misguided ideology collides with reality. Ask your AI this question: What is the population loss in Ukraine since the Russian Invasion of 2022? 15
Posted by Guessedworker on Mon, 27 Apr 2026 11:59 | # The reality is that (a) the Russian oil economy is being relentlessly degraded, and (b) Russia’s military-industrial complex is being blown up. Combat potential is lost not only by attacks on airfields, navel assets, air defense assets, command posts, and ammunition and drone storage sites but by setting vast fires to refineries, chemical plants, pipelines and oil shipment ports. This is going on nightly, with 180 to 240 missiles and drones flying through the gaps created by attacks on the Russian air defense system through the second half of last year. The effort is accelerating hard. Range is increasing. Warheads are increasing in explosive weight. Moscow can’t keep up, can’t defend its assets, and can’t fight indefinitely. Neither can its twin strategies of attrition and missiling civilians - a stuck record - change anything. It’s all got away from Putin. People like Diesen can and will say what they like, but Zelensky is holding the ace of innovation, and its being played. Th other thing here is that a victory for Moscow would mean the ethnic cleansing / genocide of Western Ukrainians. It’s a bit rich to base your argument for Russian victory on “the Ukrainian demographic disaster” of resisting that. 16
Posted by Thorn on Mon, 27 Apr 2026 14:28 | # Suppose Ukraine manages to fully drive Russia out of its territory, which is quite possible, but what happens after that? I imagine a scenario where oligarchs, international bankers, and international corporations, in effect, take control of Ukrainian politics and politicians, determining which governing policies will be implemented, especially those related to immigration. I can imagine a future Ukraine operating much like the UK or the US, where the electorate has little influence on public policy, with decisions largely shaped by incredibly powerful lobbies and think tanks. Sure, many people may become wealthy, and the average Ukrainian’s standard of living could improve significantly. But the trade-off might be that native Ukrainians would, over decades of large-scale immigration, face the real possibility of becoming a minority in their own country. Fifty years from now, the average native Ukrainian might look back and realize that their hard-won victory over Russia came at the steep cost of demographic change driven by decisions influenced by foreign money and power…. 17
Posted by Guessedworker on Tue, 28 Apr 2026 03:54 | # “Here Ukrainian man, Ukrainian woman, suffer another Holodomor ... suffer the sundering and sending-out of your kind, that you do not have to suffer mass immigration by the hand of the west’s elites” - that’s the message you are sending out ... “Better to let Moscow kill you now than watch your home be flooded with racial aliens.” Well, where is the way to life here? Where if not, first, defeating the monstrous invader in the east and, then, denying the brazen power-junkies in the west. Don’t the Ukrainians deserve a crack at that rather than just being handed over to Putin and whatever modern-day Yagoda is waiting in the ranks of the FSB? 18
Posted by Thorn on Tue, 28 Apr 2026 10:06 | # If Ukrainians wanted to culturally, economically and militarily align with the West, they should have waited until Russia’s government was open to such changes. Instead, Ukraine made its unfortunate move while the Putin regime is in power, and the outcome has been all too predictable. Talk about bad timing!! 19
Posted by Guessedworker on Tue, 28 Apr 2026 11:49 | # So, today at TCW I was asked a question by a poster named John Andrews to which my reply was:
This I believe to be fully the case, indeed the only interpretation which fits the facts. On that basis, then, when would Putin, who insists that Ukraine is a false construct, an historical mistake, and the land is Moscow’s, agree to Ukrainians “culturally, economically and militarily” aligning with the west? None of which Putin has any right whatsoever to interfere with, of course. Moscow may have geopolitical interests in its neighbour, but it does not have rights, most particularly the rights of dominion and dictatorship. You’re nearly there, Thorn. It is only a question of asserting the obvious moral principles involved, and we will agree. 20
Posted by Thorn on Fri, 01 May 2026 22:08 | # Over the past two years, Tucker has shown that he’s grown more understanding of the motives behind the neocons.; IOWs, he has become jew wise. It’s almost as if he has read K-Mac’s books particularly The Culture of Critique. Also, he pretty much reflects the sentiment of Fred Scrooby on that subject. But knowing Tucker, I think he mostly reached those conclusions based on his own observations. Anyway, it’s refreshing to hear a “mainstream” media personality taking on the issue and getting the word out to millions. 21
Posted by Guessedworker on Sat, 02 May 2026 07:39 | # So here is the ideological problem with the current radical right. In that monologue Tucker plainly stated that Kyrylo Budanov has said “We are going to have to import Africans”. The African thing probably comes from here:
Well, that article links to the actual source, which is a discussion at a business conference in early April attended by Budanov in his capacity of head of the Presidential Office. The YouTube page is all in Ukrainian, and it is difficult to get a sense of the precise meanings being communicated. But down in the comments we see this (as translated by the site):
So, actually, one employer is calling for migrants from Bangladesh. Budanov is introducing doubts. But Tucker has him going along with “neocons” to permanently change Ukraine! And how many tens of thousands of innocents believe him? It was reported a few months ago that Vladimir Putin entertained the Pakistani president, and agreement had been reached to supply labour from that country for Russian industry. Pakistan is a good choice for labour importation, if no other course but to import is open, because even if at some point down the line citizenship is given to the labourers, Pakistan maintains its citizenship should they wish at any time to return. But that aside, I don’t see Tucker talking about that. He’s just not honest. All that said, he is (almost) saying something about white-hatred and (almost) identifying the source of it. For which small mercy advocates for truth should be grateful. 22
Posted by Thorn on Sat, 02 May 2026 10:06 | # Tucker might not have all the details exactly right, but he’s nailed the general idea of what’s likely to happen in Ukraine. The native Ukrainians are going to get shafted. Many of the mechanisms to shaft them have already been put in place. And it’s only a matter of time before foreigners can directly purchase farmland there. Race-replacement + ownership replacement. That’s what lies ahead for Ukraine. 23
Posted by Guessedworker on Sat, 02 May 2026 11:29 | # He hasn’t nailed anything. He’s welded a grotesque exaggeration on to the rest of his case, for the reason that he is pro-Putin (and, in any case, hasn’t asked himself whether genocide is preferable to multiracialism). Predicting the future is a slippery task at the best of times. You have to be led by evidence, not by prejudice. The evidence from the rest of the accession states is that race-replacement immigration doesn’t happen, probably for the reason that the political classes of eastern and western Europe have some telling structural differentials, probably to do with liberalism and modernity. The Ukrainian state may need to find labour for essential industry. On what scale and how it would handle it remains to be seen. The Ukrainians don’t yet know. The conversation is only just taking place. Budanov may well be the next president. He’s more popular than Zelensky (who has not yet decided to stand) and more able than Zaluzhnyi. Like Zelensky, he would do what he has to to get the country into the EU. He is no more likely to be a push-over for the western elites than any of the accession state leaders, all of whom have kept their countries clear and free of mass immigration. 24
Posted by Thorn on Sat, 02 May 2026 16:34 | # “Predicting the future is a slippery task at the best of times.” Predicting the future of Ukraine is a fairly easy one, especially if you look at the track record of western countries particularity the demographic transformation that’s taking place. Reminds me of this saying: “Past behavior is often the most reliable indicator of future behavior, especially when habits are consistent and situations are similar.” Given Ukraine’s economic potential, it’s clear that once the war ends, a huge influx of foreign investment will follow. Over the course of a few decades, Ukraine will be transformed into one of the richest countries in Europe which in turn will be a magnet for immigration from third-world countries. Ukraine will be swamped by immigration both legal and illegal and the native Ukrainian people will have little to no say in the matter. Does that sound familiar to what’s happening in the UK and the USA? The same peeps running the USA will be - for all intents and purposes - running Ukraine. The Ukraine of five years ago is no more. “Is genocide preferable to multiculturalism?” Multiculturalism via large-scale immigration from third-world countries, over time, leads to genocide by stealth. It happens everywhere its tried. 25
Posted by Thorn on Thu, 07 May 2026 00:10 | # GW, have you read The Bell Curve? How about The Death of the West? Those two books spelled out to me how China is going to kick our ass. 27
Posted by Thorn on Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59 | # China’s Long Game https://archive.ph/We6GM#selection-607.0-623.9 Thorn note: If the Democrats regain power via both the 2026 midterms and the 2028 general election, China’s wait could be a short one. One big factor will almost inevitably be that, once back in power, the Democrats would most likely open the Southern border and resume what enlightened people refer to as the “Great Replacement” agenda. 28
Posted by Thorn on Thu, 14 May 2026 11:52 | # “Escalate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.” Military Expert Gives WARNING About Ukraine/Russia War 29
Posted by Guessedworker on Tue, 19 May 2026 05:56 | # Ukrinform takes-down Russian fakes about immigration in post-war Ukraine:
30
Posted by Guessedworker on Tue, 19 May 2026 08:23 | # On the subject of unwanted migrants, from Fox News:
31
Posted by Thorn on Tue, 19 May 2026 12:51 | # @29 GW, my understanding is the immigration into Ukraine will begin after the war ends, not during it. Ukraine’s population has already been reduced by ~20% (10 million) and is expected to continue to decline substantially in the foreseeable future. Furthermore, only a small fraction of the refugees who fled Ukraine during the war are expected to return. 33
Posted by Thorn on Tue, 19 May 2026 18:35 | # For starters: United Nations Population Fund, The International Organization for Migration (IOM), and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). There are countless credible open sources researching the demographic trends in Ukraine. For one thing, Ukraine’s fertility rate is under 1.0, and it’s worth noting that the country already had the lowest TFR in Europe even before Russia’s invasion. When the war ends and major investments flow in to rebuild infrastructure and tap into the country’s vast natural resources, a corresponding wave of large-scale immigration will be necessary to meet labor demands. Do I really need to mention where those workers might come from? 34
Posted by Guessedworker on Tue, 19 May 2026 20:41 | # For pete’s sake, they have no credibility whatever. What they do have is an agenda. You are taking our lead from the leading advocates for European race-replacement in the entire technocratic structure. 35
Posted by Thorn on Wed, 20 May 2026 00:15 | # The information in this article is over a year old, so it’s clear the situation is now much worse. Moreover, it seems your guy, Zelensky, intends to keep this war going on indefinitely. 23 Aug., 2025 The full-scale war in Ukraine has dramatically reshaped the country’s demographic landscape. Over two and a half years, the population has declined by at least 10 million. Mass migration, record-high mortality, falling birth rates, and an aging population present a profound challenge to Ukraine’s future. Frontliner examines how the size, structure, and distribution of the population are changing and what the government is doing to preserve human potential. At the start of 2022, over 40 million people lived in Ukraine (excluding Crimea). By mid-2024, that number had dropped to roughly 35.8 million, with only 31.1 million residing in government-controlled areas. In just two and a half years, the country has lost around 10 million residents. The era when Ukraine’s population exceeded 50 million is now firmly in the past. Migration The longer the war continues, the fewer migrants plan to return — especially men of conscription age. The government has proposed incentives, from reserving skilled specialists to housing and employment programs, but millions are building lives abroad. Eastern and southern regions have emptied as millions fled Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv. Central and western regions absorbed millions of internally displaced persons but have also seen population losses due to emigration. War losses and mortality Birth rates at historic lows A demographic strategy struggling to take hold Government estimates suggest the population could decline to 29 million by 2041. Recovery is possible — but only under conditions of peace, economic stabilization, and reconstruction. The return of refugees, delayed family planning, and the creation of adequate living conditions could form the foundation for demographic growth. *** Created with the support of the Association of Independent Regional Publishers of Ukraine and Amediastiftelsen as part of the Regional Media Support Hub project. The authors’ views do not necessarily coincide with the official position of the partners. https://frontliner.ua/en/ukraine-population-losses-amid-war/ 36
Posted by Guessedworker on Wed, 20 May 2026 04:24 | # Since before that article was written I was arguing that during the latter half of 2026 Russian combat potential would decline as a result of the then nascent Ukrainian policy of hitting Russia’s military-industrial complex. In an interview on 14th May, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed that the number of offensive operations carried out by the Ukrainian Defense Forces currently exceeds that of the Russian forces. Those offensive actions are not only underway on the southern front. Serhii Bratchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Volunteer Army “South”, said yesterday:
One probably has to go all the way back to Ukrainian operations in the immediate aftermath of the withdrawal from Bakhmut, facilitated by the mortal damage done to Wagner in the latter’s relentless fight for the town, to find the last time that Ukrainians exhibited any capacity to conduct offensive manoeuvers in the east. That was short-lived, of course, but this feels different. There is a sea-change matched by the sad parade in Red Square “allowed” by Zelensky, and by the shock of Muscovites after the drone strikes of the last few days. It is now becoming commonplace for western politicians and military experts to observe that Ukraine is winning (which will be undeniable if the forthcoming Russian attack on the city of Kostyantynivka dies on the open steppe before it). A new future is opening. All things are possible. 37
Posted by Thorn on Wed, 20 May 2026 11:34 | # “A new future is opening. All things are possible.” Indeed. 1) It’s possible that things could go well for Ukraine and poorly for Russia. Right now, option #3 reflects the reality, and it seems that situation is likely to escalate thus worsen. From the beginning, I’ve suspected that a third party deviously instigated the conflict with the intention of bringing down both Russia and Ukraine. That fits into the pattern of an anti-European, anti-ethno-nationalist agenda. In the crudest most violent way, it fits the genocide-by-stealth model. Post a comment:
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Posted by Thorn on Fri, 17 Apr 2026 22:15 | #
“Ukraine has introduced criminal penalties for antisemitism, with offenders facing fines, restrictions of liberty, or prison terms of up to eight years.
On April 14, 2026, President Volodymyr Zelensky signed Law No. 2037-IX, which criminalizes antisemitic acts and establishes a graduated scale of punishment, ranging from fines and restrictions on liberty to imprisonment for up to eight years. This law amends Article 161 of the Ukrainian Criminal Code, explicitly including “manifestations of antisemitism” as punishable offenses, covering actions such as incitement to hatred, discrimination, restriction of rights, and public humiliation of Jewish individuals.”
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-signs-law-against-antisemitism-in-ukraine-up-to-8-years-in-prison/
Then there’s the matter of large-scale immigration from third world countries that Ukraine will soon face.