Washington Post, “4 things we learned from the indictment of 13 Russians in the Mueller investigation”, 16 Feb 2018:
This post has been updated.
We have the first indictment in the investigation by Robert S. Mueller III that actually has to do with Russian meddling in the 2016 election. The special counsel on Friday indicted 13 Russians in connection with a large-scale troll farm effort aimed at influencing the election in violation of U.S. law.
The indictment of the Internet Research Agency comes on top of two Trump advisers having pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI — Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos — and two more being indicted on charges of alleged financial crimes that predated the campaign — Paul Manafort and Rick Gates. Nobody is in custody and Russia does not extradite to the United States, but the document from the secretive Mueller investigation does shed plenty of light where there previously wasn’t any.
So what does the new indictment tell us? Here’s what we can say right away:
1. It doesn’t say the Trump campaign colluded with Russia, but doesn’t rule it out either.
Anybody looking for clues about the collusion investigation into the Trump campaign won’t find much to grab hold of. If anything, the indictment may hearten Trump allies in that it doesn’t draw a line to the campaign — which suggests there was a large-scale effort independent of any possible collusion. Perhaps that’s the real meddling effort, some folks in the White House may be telling themselves right now. Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein even specified that Trump campaign officials who were contacted by the Russian nationals “did not know they were communicating with Russians.”
But that’s about as much insight as anyone can draw; we simply don’t know what else is coming down the pike, and any ties to Trump campaign officials may have been withheld from this indictment to avoid disclosing details of an ongoing investigation. The president hasn’t even been interviewed yet, so we wouldn’t expect any ties to the campaign at this juncture.
Asked whether campaign officials had knowledge of the scheme or were duped, Rosenstein chose his words carefully. “There is no allegation in this indictment that any American had any knowledge,” Rosenstein said.
The words “in this indictment” mean Rosenstein’s comments are pretty narrow.
Update:
In a statement, Trump and the White House suggested that the announcement “further indicates that there was NO COLLUSION between the Trump campaign and Russia.” Again, it doesn’t provide any direct indication.
2. It just got a lot harder for Trump to dismiss Mueller’s probe as a “witch hunt.”
At one point in the indictment, a price tag is put on the effort: $1.25 million in one month, as of September 2016. To put that in perspective, that’s as much as some entire presidential campaigns were spending monthly during the primaries. And that lends credence to the idea that this was a large-scale effort connected to the Russian government.
President Trump has often sought to downplay the idea that Russia interfered in the 2016 election — even suggesting he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assurances that it didn’t happen. This document lays it out in extensive detail.
The argument that this is a “witch hunt,” which Trump has argued and more than 8 in 10 Republicans believe, just became much more difficult to make. And the document would seem to make pretty clear that the Mueller investigation isn’t just targeted at taking down Trump, either.
3. We still have no idea whether Russia flipped the 2016 election (despite Pence’s claim).
In his remarks to reporters, Rosenstein also specified that the indictment doesn’t determine whether Russia’s interference effort changed the results of the 2016 election. He said there was “no allegation in the indictment of any effect on the outcome of the election.”
Some Trump allies quickly got excited about that, thinking that it meant Russia didn’t win the race for Trump. But that’s not what Rosenstein said. He was merely saying that the indictment doesn’t make a determination — just as the intelligence community’s report back in January 2017 made no determination. (Nor would we expect either the special counsel or the intelligence community to make such a determination, given that it’s almost completely unknowable what impact Russian interference had.)
Some in the White House have misrepresented that intelligence community report, up to and including Trump, CIA Director Mike Pompeo and Vice President Pence. Even this week, Pence said at an Axios event that it was “the universal conclusion of out intelligence communities that none of those efforts had any impact on the outcome of the 2016 election.”
That’s just flat wrong. And you can bet that bogus claim will be repeated following Rosenstein’s comments today. The good news: Now, you know better.
Update: Sure enough, the White House also claims in a new statement that the indictment “further indicates ... that the outcome of the election was not changed or affected.” This is a bogus claim.
4. The effort wasn’t just pro-Trump or anti-Clinton.
The troll farm wasn’t just focused on Trump and Hillary Clinton. In fact, it picked sides in both primaries and opposed and supported multiple other candidates.
“They engaged in operations primarily intended to communicate derogatory information about Hillary Clinton, to denigrate other candidates such as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and to support Bernie Sanders and then-candidate Donald Trump,” the indictment says. It says the troll farm had decided whom it was supporting by February 2016, when the primaries were getting off the ground, and it instructed its specialists to “use any opportunity to criticize Hillary and the rest (except Sanders and Trump — we support them.)”
It’s possible the primary advocacy was simply meant to boost Trump and hurt Clinton, but it’s notable that the troll farm effort played in those primaries too.
BBC, “Russia-Trump inquiry: Russians charged over US 2016 election tampering”, 17 Feb 2018:
Thirteen Russians have been charged with interfering in the US 2016 election, in a major development in the FBI investigation.
Three of those named have also been accused of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and five have been accused of aggravated identity theft.
The charges were made by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who is investigating alleged Russian meddling.
Three Russian companies are also named in the indictment.
One of them is the Internet Research Agency, based in St Petersburg, which the 37-page indictment said “had a strategic goal to sow discord in the US political system, including the 2016 US presidential election”.
Speaking at a news conference, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein said there was no allegation that any American was “a knowing participant in this illegal activity” nor was it alleged that the meddling altered the election outcome.
- Seven key takeaways from the indictments
- The Trump-Russia saga in 200 words
- Full text of the Russia indictment
Mr Trump was briefed on the indictment earlier on Friday, the White House said.
The president later tweeted that his campaign had done “nothing wrong” and again denied colluding with Russia.
He also appeared to acknowledge Russian election meddling - something which he has in the past cast doubt on despite US intelligence agency assessments.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and other top Russian officials have repeatedly denied interfering in the US presidential election.
What does the indictment say?
It says a group of Russians:
- Posed as Americans, and opened financial accounts in their name
- Spent thousands of dollars a month buying political advertising
- Purchased US server space in an effort to hide their Russian affiliation
- Organised and promoted political rallies within the United States
- Posted political messages on social media accounts that impersonated real US citizens
- Promoted information that disparaged Hillary Clinton
- Received money from clients to post on US social media sites
- Created themed groups on social media on hot-button issues, particularly on Facebook and Instagram
- Operated with a monthly budget of as much as $1.25m (£890,000)
- Financed the building of a cage large enough to hold an actress portraying Hillary Clinton in a prison uniform
The indictment says those involved systematically monitored the success of their internet posts.
- The tactics of the Russian ‘troll farm’
- Trump Russia affair: Key questions answered
- Who’s who in Russia scandal?
It also says those named in the indictment had visited the US posing as American citizens and had begun discussing how to affect the election as early as 2014.
“By 2016, defendants and their co-conspirators used their fictitious online persons to interfere with the 2016 US presidential election,” the indictment continues.
“They engaged in operations primarily to communicate derogatory information about Hillary Clinton, to denigrate other candidates such as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and to support Bernie Sanders and then-candidate Donald Trump.”
How has Russia reacted?
It called the allegations “absurd”.
“Thirteen people interfered with the US elections?” said Maria Zakharova, a Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman. “Thirteen against the billion-dollar budgets of the security services? Against espionage and counter-espionage, against new developments and technologies? Absurd? Yes.”
One of the men named in the indictment - Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is known as “Putin’s chef”, denied election tampering.
“The Americans are very impressionable people, they see what they want to see,” he was quoted as saying by Russian news agency Ria Novosti on Friday. “I have great respect for them. I’m not at all upset that I’m on this list. If they want to see the devil, let them see him.”
Mr Prigozhin has been a friend of Mr Putin since the 1990s. He has built up a business empire and has been accused of using companies to diffuse pro-Kremlin opinions via fake internet identities.
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Heat of investigation is increasing
Analysis by Anthony Zurcher, BBC News, Washington
On Friday, Robert Mueller’s team released a slate of indictments that lays bare what it asserts is the full shape of the Russian meddling apparatus.
And what an apparatus it was. In the run-up to the US presidential election “Project Lakhta”, as it was called, had an operating budget of more than $1m a month.
Russians associated with the organisation travelled to the US, posed as Americans and gathered information on where best to target its attempts to “sow discord” in the US political process. Swing states were identified and efforts, according to the indictment, were made to boost the prospects of Republican Donald Trump and undermine Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Although the indictment does not suggest collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians, it says the meddling effort may have been aided by “unwitting individuals” associated with the Republican nominee.
The White House may breathe a sigh of relief with that particular revelation. But the heat is increasing, and the investigation isn’t over yet. At the very least, if Mr Mueller’s allegations hold up in court, it will become increasingly difficult for the president to argue that Russian meddling on his behalf is an unsubstantiated hoax.
Read Anthony’s key takeaways
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What do the social media companies say?
Politicians from both major parties have responded with calls for social media companies to do more to prevent political interference via their platforms.
Facebook said in a statement that it had worked “proactively” with Mr Mueller’s investigation, but admitted that it had “more to do to prevent further attacks”.
Twitter said the activities were “intolerable” and that it was working with investigators, but that “tech companies cannot defeat this novel, shared threat alone”.
What is the investigation about?
US intelligence agencies believe Russia tried to sway the 2016 presidential election in favour of Mr Trump.
In May last year, Mr Mueller was appointed special counsel to investigate whether anyone from his campaign colluded in the effort.
As part of the inquiry, former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort has been charged with conspiring to defraud the US in his dealings with Ukraine, and conspiracy to launder money.
A business associate of his, Rick Gates, was also charged with conspiracy to launder money. A third adviser to the Trump campaign, George Papadopoulos, pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI.
This week President Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon, was interviewed by Mr Mueller.
Mr Trump has been accused by opponents of trying to interfere with the investigation, which he denies.
Posted by Uncomfortable Bear on Sat, 17 Feb 2018 12:23 | #
The Dutch were able to establish “persistence” in the Russian spy operation, “cozy bear.”
By “persistence” it is meant that they were able to enter undetected into a Russian network and spy over a protracted span of time: