|
|
|
Raab goes. McVey goes. Two junior ministers too. The Brexiteer rebellion is on. The political threads are running red-hot this morning, following last nights tempestuous cabinet meeting over the May/Robbins Withdrawal Agreement ... 585 pages of internationalism, 0 pages of nationalism ... and the immediate and unexpected resignation of the (replacement) Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab. The push is on. Cabinet resignations will happen throughout the day. For example, it is known that Michael Gove has cancelled his ministerial appointments today. So he’s off. Once he sees a way opening up to contest for the leadership the ambitious (replacement) Home Secretary Sajid Javid will jump on the wagon. There could be ten or twelve in all. Meanwhile, Rees Mogg’s ERG members within the parliamentary party will be putting in their written demand (effectively) for a leadership election to 1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady, and by the Six O’Clock News he will be on the box announcing that the threshold of 48 letters has been reached. Tomorrow morning, probably, May will inform the country that she is resigning rather than face a vote of no confidence, and will take the lonely drive to Buckingham Palace to inform the Queen. The Withdrawal Agreement which she and her civil servants have spent so much time and effort negotiating (aka capitulating) will never see the inside of the House of Commons. So who will now stand against Boris Johnson for the leadership of the party. My suspicion is that from the Remainers it will be his younger brother Joe, who resigned six days ago, and who managed by that show of principle to vault over all the Remain dead-wood (Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond, former Home Secretary Amber Rudd). In that event, we would have a Tory version of the Miliband brother’s battle for the leadership of the Labour Party in 2010. But we would also have a straight battle between advocates of a second referendum and a real Brexit. My feeling is that the large swathe of MPs who are basically knee-jerk party loyalists could look to Sajid, a Remainer who has shuffled into the Leave camp and a Muslim held hostage by political realism. The Remainers have the numbers to swing behind him and put him into the final run-off in which the whole membership, and not just MPs, will vote. But does he look like the sure-fire general election winner Boris Johnson is? Obviously not. Comments:2
Posted by May faces backlash over Brexit agreement on Thu, 15 Nov 2018 15:02 | # Theresa May faces backlash over Brexit agreement
3
Posted by Guessedworker on Thu, 15 Nov 2018 22:49 | # So as of tonight May is clinging on in 10 Downing Street. Robert Peston for the ITN Ten O’Clock News says he expects the threshold of 48 letters from disaffected Tories to be in Sir Graham Brady’‘s hands by tomorrow, although he may not announce the fact until Monday morning, because the House is not sitting tomorrow. That will trigger a vote of confidence among the Tory parliamentary party, and if May loses that she will have to resign. Meanwhile the Daily Express reports that:
4
Posted by Guessedworker on Fri, 16 Nov 2018 12:07 | # Gove folded. Not entirely a surprise. Only Marc Francois is known to have acted this morning, with a particularly stinging letter he has released to the press. And ... Guido reports JRM ally Steve Baker claiming that the 48 letters are in:
In which case it’s on! 5
Posted by Guessedworker on Fri, 16 Nov 2018 14:05 | # A graphic from that YouGov poll of the public’s view of May/Robbins:
6
Posted by Guessedworker on Sat, 17 Nov 2018 11:58 | # The Daily Mail breathlessly reports:
7
Posted by mancinblack on Sun, 18 Nov 2018 15:29 | # The Conservative’s European Research Group’s document “Your Right to Know - the Case Against Chequers and the Draft Withdrawal Agreement in Plain English”... 8
Posted by Guessedworker on Mon, 19 Nov 2018 10:46 | # Here is the assessment, very carefully researched, of ConHome’s resident Brexit analyst, Paul Goodman: He grants Theresa May and her civil servants prima facie victories on two of her three goals: control over our borders and control over our money. But on control over our laws - the principal principle in Brexit - she has failed. Goodman also points out that the immigration gains will likely be traded away for access to the EU’s markets for goods and services. Control over our money is also compromised in the short term by the vast divorce bill to which May consented without getting anything in return. Goodman concludes:
9
Posted by Guessedworker on Mon, 19 Nov 2018 19:38 | # What Telegraph readers really think about Theresa May’s Brexit deal ...
10
Posted by Captainchaos on Tue, 20 Nov 2018 00:59 | # Question: If that prolapsing old hag Theresa May resigns who will take her place? Answer: Another yid-sucking zogbot. Bonus question: Just what form of putrescence comes billowing out of Theresa May’s crusty twat these days? Answer: Dust and volcanic ash. 11
Posted by EU leaders approve Brexit deal on Tue, 27 Nov 2018 00:00 | #
Post a comment:
Next entry: Hitler was Not White Nationalist Part 4
|
|
Existential IssuesDNA Nations
|
Posted by Guessedworker on Thu, 15 Nov 2018 14:10 | #
Jacob Rees Mogg’s letter to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee:
Meanwhile, Michael Gove, who was offered the post of Brexit Secretary form which Raab resigned this morning and David Davis after Chequers, has refused it. That is tantamount to a resignation in itself, which will surely follow formally before too long. An hour perhaps. The dye is cast.
The next stage is for the No Confidence Vote in May’s leadership to be called by the 1922. Given the almost total absence of real, principled support in the parliamentary party and the wider Conservative Party for May’s Withdrawal Agreement, and given the surviving anger over the 2017 GE debacle, Theresa May cannot win the vote; and would, therefore, be wise to avoid it by resigning first. She may, of course, not be wise. She is an extraordinarily tenacious clinger to power, and seems perfectly able to avoid factoring reality in to her thinking.
Similarly, Theresa May could insist upon contesting a leadership election, although I doubt even she is that unaware of her surroundings. Where is her majority support in the party? She has ruled out a second referendum, which is the Remain stratagem. She has defied the first referendum result, delivery of which is the Leave cause. The actual numbers in the parliamentary party break down something like a third each for Leave, Remain, and the blind loyalists. But I stress the latter group are party loyalists not May loyalists. Shorn of the trappings of political patronage (and all leadership election candidates are such) she has little to no personal constituency - not least because of that 2017 GE debacle.