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Arvin Ash 27 Mar 2020:

A Worst Case Scenario

- based on the computations of mathematician Daniel Regenberg.

Excellent resource: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu
Daniel Regenberg’s links, for much more detail:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXkvf...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rWBd...
Daniel’s Paper: https://medium.com/@coronamathematics...

German mathematician Daniel Regenberg contacted me to share his data on how many people are likely to get infected.  I was very skeptical and did not believe it. But when I checked his numbers against publicly available data, and checked his math, I could not find any flaws.  I felt it was important to share this data and he agreed to let me do it.

24 thousand people in the world have died as of March 26th, and 500K infections. But this is the tip of the iceberg. Surprisingly, the growth rate of infections is about the same everywhere - 25% to 30% per day. I am using an average of 27%. This means that every three days, the number of people getting infected with the virus doubles – according to this equation: 1.27^3 – 2.05. And every 10 days, the number infected goes up by 10X.

So in the U.S., the number of infected people as of March 25th is about 62,000, in 10 days will be 675,000, and in another 10 days, it will be 7.3 million, And in 10 more ays it will be 80 million. This is a 1300X increase in one month!

But here’s the important point to remember, a university of Massachusetts Amherst study shows that the median incubation period for the virus is about 5-12 days. This means that the number of people infected with the virus in the US, is likely to be 4 times what the current numbers show. 
#coronavirus
#covid19
#sarscov2

If we do not all make some sacrifices in terms of doing our part to stay socially isolated, the number of infected people in the US could soar.

How can this virus be contained?

READ MORE...

CNN 25 Mar 2020:

Steven Dick, 37, passed away on Tuesday after contracting Covid-19, the UK Foreign Office said.

London (CNN)A senior British diplomat stationed in Hungary has died after contracting coronavirus, the UK’s Foreign Office said on Wednesday.

Steven Dick, aged 37, was the Deputy Head of Mission for the British embassy in Budapest.

He passed away on Tuesday after contracting Covid-19, the Foreign Office said.

UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said: “I am desperately saddened by the news of Steven’s death and my heart goes out to his parents Steven and Carol. Steven was a dedicated diplomat and represented his country with great skill and passion. He will be missed by all those who knew him and worked with him.” Dick joined the Foreign Office in 2008 and has also worked in British embassies in Riyadh and Kabul, according to his biography on the UK government’s website.

His role of Deputy Head of Mission made him a key adviser to the UK’s Ambassador to Hungary, Iain Lindsay. Dick has also worked in the UK government’s Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport.

“Steven was a much-loved son, grandson and nephew,” Dick’s parents said in a statement to the UK’s PA news agency.

“He was kind, funny and generous. It was always his dream to work for the Foreign & Commonwealth Office and he was very happy representing our country overseas.”

The UK has recorded more than 8,000 coronavirus cases and 435 deaths, while Hungary has 226 cases and 10 fatalities, according to Johns Hopkins University on March 25.

Britain’s Prince Charles tests positive for coronavirus

Charles and other senior royals kept up a busy schedule of engagements until earlier this month, when they cut off public events as the coronavirus outbreak intensified. Photo: Britain’s Prince Charles gestures as he greets musician Ronnie Wood as he arrives at the annual Prince’s Trust Awards 2020 held at the London Palladium, March 11, 2020. (Yui Mok/PA via AP, File)

Anchorage Daily News 16 hours ago:

LONDON — Prince Charles, heir to the British throne, has tested positive for the new coronavirus, royal officials confirmed Wednesday — touching off criticism over whether his wealth and status gave him priority in receiving a test.

The 71-year-old is showing mild symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, and is self-isolating at a royal estate in Scotland, the prince’s Clarence House office said. His wife, Camilla, 72, has tested negative.

“The Prince of Wales has tested positive for Coronavirus,’’ Clarence House said.

It said he “otherwise remains in good health and has been working from home throughout the last few days as usual.’‘

Britain’s Press Association, citing a source, said the prince and the duchess remained in good spirits, and that Charles was not bedridden.

British government advice advises people over 70 to take social distancing measures especially seriously.

For most people, the new coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough that clear up in two to three weeks. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can be more severe, causing pneumonia and sometimes death.

Donald Trump touts ‘beautiful timeline’ to lift coronavirus restrictions by Easter and have ‘packed churches’

MSNBC, 6 hours ago:

Donald Trump said he wants his nation “opened up and raring to go by Easter” as he spoke about an end to coronavirus lockdown measures across the United States.

The US President spoke about his desire to loosen guidelines, touting the prospect of “packed churches” for the holiday.

“I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter”, he said in a virtual town hall held by Fox News.

In a later interview on Fox News he said “Wouldn’t it be great to have all the churches full?”

“You’ll have packed churches all over the country. I think it would be a beautiful time. And it’s just about the timeline I think is right”.

Not content with being “the new Cyrus” it appears Trump also wants to be the new James I and own the title of “the wisest fool in Christendom”. - mancinblack